That is the biggest flaw in reasoning anybody here is making. Theater count doesn't matter, it's SCREEN count. Its the NUMBER OF SHOWTIMES, because so many will sell out.

TDK opened 9,300 screens. Avengers just opened in 11,800. You can bet your behind TDKR is going to be over 11,500 screens when it opens. So, where will this 15-20% increase in admissions from TDK come from? Well, it will be opening on about 30% more screens. So, that is at least a start.

173 million (tdk adjusted opening weekend) / 9300 screens = $18,602 per SCREEN. That average translated to 11,800 screens is $220 million. And clearly that is without 3-D. So before anybody says "200m is impossible w/o 3-D", just read that last sentence to know that it is MORE than possible. Factor in a lot more imax theaters, much higher midnights, and more upfront demand that TDK had, and you'll see a "perfect storm of events" would give TDK that 4-5 million admissions boost people are talking about, where it opens to $250 million, or something literally unbelievable.

200m is FAR from impossible. Believe it or not, there were pleeeeeenty of half full showing of the Avengers the past weekend. TA's 22.5m admissions on 11,800 screens is obviously a little less than TDK's 22.4m admissions on 9,300 screens.

Again, the ballpark range for midnights should be 35-40. Friday will be 65-70. Saturday roughly the same. Sunday 55-60. Prior to Avengers, I struggled to see how this would fail to top 200 million OW. After it, I am struggling to imagine less than 215.

When is the last time a film opened that was the follow to the 2nd highest grossing movie ever? This is not Spiderman 2, or LOTR 2, or even the Matrix Reloaded. TDK is one of the most popular films of a generation. I would guess literally two times as many people are aware of Batman, which opens in 3 months, than MIB3, which opens in 3 weeks. That is not meant as a knock against MIB3, either.

TDKR is literally one of the most anticipated films OF ALL TIME. People need to be thinking bigger.

After July 20


Batman: "The Avengers opened well........... For a film without Batman"

Rev, your signature is distracting. I have to watch the damn trailer every time I scroll past you. I can't NOT watch it.

WB is paying me to spread the word by all means possible

TDKR is going to decimate the recored, 217.53m coming up

Tell them I wanna work for free

The Dark Knight Rises Guarantees............

100% guaranteed Potter smothering 44m+ midnight showings.
100% guaranteed head exploding 100m+ opening day
100% guaranteed ball crushing 208m+ opening wknd
100% guaranteed eye popping 4 wknds straight over 20m
100% guaranteed GUARANTEED! top grosser of 2012
150% guaranteed jaw dropping 600m+

Good luck with that.

Ok, convinced me.

Hmmm...
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=1208001#p1208001
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=1209052#p1209052

Deal!

BGE knows

Ive recently viewed TDK predictions from you that you might not want to see again

Hehe, you definitely called that one. But this time around there is a $600+ million grosser already on the market. Hell, it might end up hitting $700m. TDK didn't have to deal with anything as huge as Avengers.

Even if it was, TDK ain't TPM.

That's not what I'm referring to. I'm referring to his prediction that TDKR will be #1 for the year. TDK's next closest competitor didn't even hit $320m, never mind making $600+ million like Avengers is on pace to do. TDKR has a much steeper hill to climb than TDK did.

Please, TA is making between 580m-620m, it doesn't have the four quadrant appeal to demand a 3.0+ multiplier with such a massive opening wknd. By the time TDKR comes out TA will be pulling less than 1m per wknd, hardly competition. And 1994 had two films come out three wks appart that both adjust over 600m. The Lion King and Forest Gump.

LOL we thought the same after tf2 and no film apart from avatar beat in 2010 and 2011...

shit years at the BO, 2012 is going to prove its the new 2002 or 1989 Heck its already halfway there.

$620m is a 3 multi.

Yeah, he's saying a 3 is the absolute max multiplier, no higher. More likely we'll still see about a 2.85 for under 600m.

I just can't see a gross bellow $600m. It'll already be at about $370m, coming off a $100m weekend (+/- 5m). It only needs another $230m, with Memorial Day coming up.

Yeah and I do not see much buzz and hype and the future openers really to harm it much.

It will likley get 2 drops well below 50% on those weekends.

So 50 million 3rd weekend comes into play.

http://www.tumblertour.com/

Thanks for the Seattle stop, WB

From Empire, I believe.