I think in a week or two, WB really, really to release another trailer. Perhaps less dramatic, more action oriented. a real show stopper.

but we really need to be thinking bigger.

Avengers has changed my perspective a bit on how frontloaded this will be. By all accounts, Avengers shouldn't have gone up 12% on Saturday from a midnight-less Friday; you have to basically go back to X2 in 2003 to find a film that did that.

Take a look at Spider-Man 3 and The Dark Knight's Friday-Saturday
SM3: $49,841,919 -> $51,336,732 +3.0%
TDK: $48,680,092 -> $47,650,240 -2.1%

So if we're indeed seeing social media aiding WOM spreading, it may not be beyond TDKR to increase on Saturday (again, if the WOM is there).

TA Saturday and Sunday will be hard to beat...


Sunday maybe...

225m it is. bank on it

batman vs avengers

I do not think audiences see it that way..


They loved TA for the entertainment and will love TDKR for the story!

Here's what I got so far...

Midnights: $45 mil
Friday: $110 mil ($65 mil)
Saturday: $62 mil (-5%)
Sunday: $50 mil (-20%)

Opening Weekend: $222 mil

In my honest opinion, I think this is the minimum.

you sound like you're looking forward to it...

Oh I know. I'm just trying to keep it in a realm of possibility. I don't see it doing worse than that. At least for the dailies. Midnight could be the difference... but I think it's gonna be massive at midnight,

Love your optimism

First to Excel, I didn't ignore it. It's irrelevant because that was clearly, as I already explained with less screens and showings and there was a lot of room for increase. TDKR is no Spider Man.



I think you're being pedantic. Really, I know it's easy to get hyped up and it's more fun to say shit than to be realistic, but you have to factor it that maybe people don't want or need to see it on opening weekend. Will they really go and seek out a 8am showing or other ridiculous times just because it sold out? No, they'll go the next time convenient for them. As TDKR skews older as well, there's inherently less of a rush. For the fucking last time, Heath Ledger's death played a major role in elevating and inflating TDK's OW. Just like how Harry Potter, Spider Man and Iron Man peaked with the first, TDK was basically attracting audiences that would not otherwise see it. Now you're expecting all of them to return?

People fail to realize that not 100% of people like a film after they see it. TDK is not God's gift or Nolan's gift to mankind. There will be a portion of audience not returning or feeling they can wait to see it. That will be offset by fans won after opening weekend. You might as well say that everyone physically possible should see it as soon as. But TDK made nearly $400m after opening weekend, just like Avatar made nearly $680m after opening weekend. Not everyone is going to be like you gimping out and scrounging for a 0530 showing.

Am I saying it's impossible to convince another 2 million people or however much to go? No. Warner could yet employ a marketing strategy never seen before but maybe it's not so much that they can't convince people as the factors like crowds, rowdy and rude crowds, subjective quality, personal circumstances etc that make a cap we cannot foresee. You don't think everyone's wearing their Batman spandex with nothing better to do, do you? That everyone has money or time to throw at it. At any given point, someone somewhere is affected by something you are not currently facing and because this is how the world works, it is obvious that not everyone who can go see it will actually go see it. Now, I'm not even sure when the Olympics start, but say the US is doing very well and certain events coincide with one of TDKR's OW days, a segment of the potential audience will decide they can see it tomorrow or another day because the sporting event is live and TDKR is going to play for the next 3 months. You want to say "it doesn't matter" but, oh, it does. We don't know how close to capacity a movie can play to but one can assume it's getting there because of the smaller increases in opening weekend admissions over 10 years. That's a fucking statistical proof, you don't have to go back to 1989 and say, "Nuh-uh" because that's irrelevant.

So, yeah, you assume another 2 million people on that particular weekend have nothing else to do. When you look at statistics of the potential moviegoing population and then apply all kinds of constraints you may be able to see whether that is possible or not. I don't have the data, I'm not in government or marketing or whatsoever that may have access to that kind of data, but from that list I gave you, that could be a possible and likely inference. What else are you going to say? Why hasn't Dead Man's Chest, Spider Man 3, The Dark Knight and the Avengers all failed to increase the same amount that Spider Man once did? TDKR is not the most hyped film of all time, but then, neither was Spider Man. Some say it exploited 9/11 and the feeling of the time, so evidently there are a lot more things in play rather than the "Fuck you hater" mentality which people pull out of their ass.

Avengers followers should be as afraid of Batman as I am....

I would imagine a good portion of TA fanbase is very excited for TDK...

BK needs to calm the fuck down. Seriously.

copy paste from BO.com

When no one bothers to address my post based on cory's factual chart, you can see why overpredicting and disappointment come into play.

I do wonder if there's any real point in posting anything worthy in threads like these. All people do is put out predictions predicated on nothing but hopes and talk up the movie without actually knowing the eventual quality. Now we can assume it's great, yeah, but will it be Avengers-level of recommendation good? Will it actually be a crowd pleaser? It could be fantastic but the second part is not guaranteed and certainly comparing TDK to Avengers, it's clear the latter seems to be at present more recommendable.

Lastly, another point, and maybe my last, that I have to make is simply there isn't going to be an $8m second place finisher come July. If we're going to assume good WOM we can also assume that other movies will have it to and theatres don't really need to throw away as many showings or whatever to TDKR. The theatres make more profit the longer into the movie's run. Now with TLAM making $8m and everything else $5m or less the % would've been so poor they don't need to consider. But if TASM is playing really well, or Ice Age 4, or Ted, or all of them you can see that the likelihood of TDKR dominating and swamping all screens and additional showings is less than Avengers.

For me, the best club and it would still be challenging is something like a $300m week or topping Avengers' opening week since with assumed Avenger-WOM summer weekdays should boost it over May weekdays.

IMO though for TDKR to beat TA now....


It will need to fire on all cylinders.


Great amount of hype, amazing reviews and epic WOM...

If it falls short in any area it will not able to get the admission increased needed to beat TA.

TDKR will not just cruise to 207 million...


Its not hating it just 207 million is a huge number.

The mark was like 180 million before for this...
Now its 207+

Chippy, I am calm. I'm pointing out why this has likely no chance of happening.

You, on the other hand, seem unnerved already that someone is bothering to have logic.

I think I'm done with these threads. If I'm right, I'm gonna come back and bump my posts and laugh and expect an apology.

If not, I'll still come into it and be amazed because breaking $200m OW with 2D tickets is definitely more impressive than the Avengers. Just like how the Avengers made most before it look less impressive, TDKR would do the same to it. But data is not on TDKR's side and yeah, fuck data, heard it before, but you can't always ignore everything. I can't really surmise what data has been thrown out of the window, but either way, that chart seems more relevant.

But, I'm not a believer, hence I am to be written off, right? Standard operating procedure, lol.

You have no fucking clue. Seriously. We're not just throwing out numbers. We've been doing this for almost ten years. I think we know what the fuck we're talking about,

Spider-Man 1 was on 7,500 screens and 3 on 10,300. The Dark Knight was on "only" 9,300 screens, so it's not at all delusional to think TDKR can see a similar increase.

What does this even mean? Shows have been doing 4am, 5am, 6am shows for well over a decade. It happened with ID4, Phantom Menace, Spider-Man, The Dark Knight, Harry Potter, Twilight, etc. Saying that fans don't "need" to see some films ASAP is really narrow and spits in the face of history. TDK was a 50/50 split over and under 25, the same as Avengers. None of those film franchises peaked on OW, which is what this club is about.

You made your own argument invalid here. I can't tell if you're trying to insult me and people willing to see films in the earliest hours here, if you are, then you should probably calm down.

It's impossible to quantify that, and even if that were the case, Avengers still got above TDK by about one million admissions, conservatively 500k. And it did with constrictions like weaker matinees on Friday, school on Monday, and Cinco De Mayo. Clearly, those 500k-1 million people couldn't wait until next weekend.

Oh my goodness, where to begin here. The Olympics begin on July 27th, and the timezone differences pretty much means the BO effect will be miminal.

One can't assume anything in regards to a capacity maximum simply because we haven't had a decent increase in admissions in ten years, which is again, not true. Avengers got 3 million more admissions than Spider-Man. Looking at your own list of admissions, from 83 to 89 it went up 2.9 million, from 89 to 97 it went up 5.5 million, and from 97 to 02 it went up 4 million. From a mathematical viewpoint, ~3 million in 10 years is not a statistical skew and indicative that we're reaching a peak.

Because Spider-Man had a huge number of positive over Harry Potter. It had a built in fanbase 40 years old, incredible marketing, and yes indeed 9/11 played a part. I don't even know if you can't call Spider-Man 1 the most hyped film at the time.People wouldn't call you a hater if you weren't a nuclear power plant of negativity.

It doesn't matter if they make a higher percentage of profit from a film later in its run, theaters are still going to want a $150+m opener rather than a $20m holdover. Just take a look at the screen counts for Pirates 3 and Potter 7-2. You have a predecessor that broke the OW record and you're going to be in high demand by theaters. The same applies to swapping out showtimes.

Damn.

It's funny because it's true

BGE

Definitely one of the better bitch slaps you'll ever see.

Seriously. And regarding the last point... which would the theater rather have... 6+ sold out showings of TDKR or 1-2 half full showings of Ted or Ice Age?