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Biggestgeekever
I heet the canadian!
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am
Posts: 5192
Location: The Great _______
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 Re: The Dark Knight Rises OW Record Club of FUCK 3D Magnus wrote: Updated prediction:
Midnight: 32m (essentially Twilight numbers adjusted)
OD: 65m
Sat: 59.5m (8.4% drop from non-midnight Friday, 38.6% drop from total Friday)
Sun: 53.5m (10% drop)
OW: 210m
BOOK IT. Sunday drop is too big, I like this better.  redfirebird2008 wrote: I don't view it as pessimism. $425m is more than double Batman Begins. Even when adjusted for inflation, there aren't any non-Joker Batman movies above $340m. When you look at it like that, $425m is a great result. WB would be very happy with it. It'd be a bigger drop in admissions than Shrek 3 or Pirates 3 saw, which I think is pretty pessimistic.
Last edited by Biggestgeekever on Mon May 07, 2012 1:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Mon May 07, 2012 1:05 pm |
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Brian
Ocarina of Time
Joined: Mon Aug 02, 2010 1:21 pm
Posts: 7951
Location: Hyrule
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises OW Record Club of FUCK 3D redfirebird2008 wrote: Excel wrote:
Avengers - $700m
TDKR - $425m
  redfirebird2008 wrote: Excel wrote:
TDKR - $700m
Avengers - $525m
FIXED
_________________
Most Anticipated 2023
1. Super Mario Bros Movie
2. Rebel Moon
3. Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning Part 1
4. Oppenheimer
5. The Flash
6. Elemental
7. Aquaman 2
8. Dune Part 2
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
10. Blue Beetle
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| Mon May 07, 2012 1:06 pm |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am
Posts: 4556
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises OW Record Club of FUCK 3D Magnus wrote: Updated prediction:
Midnight: 32m (essentially Twilight numbers adjusted)
OD: 68m
Sat: 59.5m (12.5% drop from non-midnight Friday, 40.5% drop from total Friday)
Sun: 50.5m (15% drop)
OW: 210m
BOOK IT. Basically similar to my prediction. 
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| Mon May 07, 2012 1:07 pm |
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Mr. Reynolds
Confessing on a Dance Floor
Joined: Tue Nov 23, 2004 12:46 am
Posts: 5578
Location: Celebratin' in Chitown
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises OW Record Club of FUCK 3D ^ Yes. Avengers is more a four-quadrant movie than TDKR will be.
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| Mon May 07, 2012 1:08 pm |
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Mr. R
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Mon Feb 20, 2006 3:19 pm
Posts: 2231
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises OW Record Club of FUCK 3D Everyone agrees that it beats Avengers in admissions? So what if tickets are cheaper, but more people rush out to see it?
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| Mon May 07, 2012 1:08 pm |
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redfirebird2008
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 4:13 am
Posts: 2483
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises OW Record Club of FUCK 3D Magnus wrote: its not doing that much less than Avengers. You're predicting Avengers to get 50% more admissions than TDKR. That isnt happening.
Do people honestly think that the same people who will see Avengers wont see TDKR? Like seriously? Some of them certainly will. But some won't. What I'm not expecting is TDKR to have the same repeat viewings that Avengers is getting.
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| Mon May 07, 2012 1:08 pm |
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Biggestgeekever
I heet the canadian!
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am
Posts: 5192
Location: The Great _______
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises OW Record Club of FUCK 3D Magnus wrote:
BUT THE 100m OD!!!!!
THE DREAM IS COLLAPSING!!!! Midnight: 35m (FUCK TWILIGHT AHWASKFASKFAKSFAS) OD: 65m Sat: 59.5m (8.4% drop from non-midnight Friday, 40.5% drop from total Friday) Sun: 53.5m (10% drop) OW: 213m 
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| Mon May 07, 2012 1:09 pm |
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Kenspy
Into the fray
Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 12:09 pm
Posts: 1874
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises OW Record Club of FUCK 3D redfirebird2008 wrote: Magnus wrote: its not doing that much less than Avengers. You're predicting Avengers to get 50% more admissions than TDKR. That isnt happening.
Do people honestly think that the same people who will see Avengers wont see TDKR? Like seriously? Some of them certainly will. But some won't. What I'm not expecting is TDKR to have the same repeat viewings that Avengers is getting. I agree with this assessment. Avengers is incredibly family friendly, while there is not a chance in hell that TDKR is family friendly. I don't agree on the huge difference in your numbers, though. Nolan's lowest multiplier is like 3.3. Unless he figures out a way to make a bad film, the multiplier won't be anywhere near that bad.
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| Mon May 07, 2012 1:10 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22199
Location: Places
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises OW Record Club of FUCK 3D Magnus wrote: Updated prediction:
Midnight: 32m (essentially Twilight numbers adjusted)
OD: 68m
Sat: 59.5m (12.5% drop from non-midnight Friday, 40.5% drop from total Friday)
Sun: 50.5m (15% drop)
OW: 210m
BOOK IT. TDKR will do more than Twlight adjusted at midnight. I don't see a drop from friDAY to saturday, either. _________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Mon May 07, 2012 1:15 pm |
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Mr. Reynolds
Confessing on a Dance Floor
Joined: Tue Nov 23, 2004 12:46 am
Posts: 5578
Location: Celebratin' in Chitown
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises OW Record Club of FUCK 3D What will give TDKR an edge is going to be midnight numbers. But then it has to perform on par with TA. Sad but exciting.
and TA may not have been a family film this weekend, but it will become one as WOM spreads.
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| Mon May 07, 2012 1:15 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22199
Location: Places
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises OW Record Club of FUCK 3D Mr. Reynolds wrote: But then it has to perform on par with TA. Sad but exciting. not quite; tdkr should win friday by 10-15 million, with 90-95. It would have to make ~110 on Sat + sun (the avengers made 125 on those 2 days). _________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Mon May 07, 2012 1:17 pm |
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Biggestgeekever
I heet the canadian!
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am
Posts: 5192
Location: The Great _______
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises OW Record Club of FUCK 3D Less kids for TDKR = fewer cheap tickets = MORE MONEYZ!!!  Really though, it's not an R-rated about Batman shooting heroin, families will still go and see this.
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| Mon May 07, 2012 1:18 pm |
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Michael A
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2008 4:48 am
Posts: 6245
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises OW Record Club of FUCK 3D redfirebird2008 wrote: Magnus wrote: its not doing that much less than Avengers. You're predicting Avengers to get 50% more admissions than TDKR. That isnt happening.
Do people honestly think that the same people who will see Avengers wont see TDKR? Like seriously? Some of them certainly will. But some won't. What I'm not expecting is TDKR to have the same repeat viewings that Avengers is getting. LOFUCKINGL _________________Mr. R wrote: Malcolm wrote: You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself. Exactly. If they don't know how to behave, and feel OK offending others, they get their ass kicked, so they'll think next time before opening their rotten mouths.
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| Mon May 07, 2012 1:19 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am
Posts: 32611
Location: the last free city
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises OW Record Club of FUCK 3D Biggestgeekever wrote: lol "sell out every show." Digital projection allows the vast majority of theaters to add showings on the fly if demand is there. And I can guarantee you this will be on a record # of screens. Just look at Pirates 3; even with Shrek 3 on its back it still got 11k screens because the 2nd one broke the OW record. Theater owners are going to WANT this film, and want it badly. What's the current screen count record????
_________________
Is it 2028 yet?
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| Mon May 07, 2012 1:24 pm |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm
Posts: 14737
Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises OW Record Club of FUCK 3D I actually agree with redfirebird about the SM/AOTC comparison. Now, the two main differences are that A) Those were two weeks apart while these are two months apart, and B) TDK had pretty much the opposite WOM that TPM did. Because of this there won't be the insane difference between the two in ticket sales. However, I do think they share the phenomenon of a record-breaking release inflating the expectations on the movie that was originally expected to win the summer.
The Avengers - $585 million
The Dark Knight Rises - $500 million
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| Mon May 07, 2012 1:26 pm |
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Michael A
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2008 4:48 am
Posts: 6245
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises OW Record Club of FUCK 3D Magnus wrote: Updated prediction:
Midnight: 32m (essentially Twilight numbers adjusted)
OD: 68m
Sat: 59.5m (12.5% drop from non-midnight Friday, 40.5% drop from total Friday)
Sun: 50.5m (15% drop)
OW: 210m
BOOK IT. I completely agree with this breakdown for now, believe it has potential to go even a little higher. _________________Mr. R wrote: Malcolm wrote: You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself. Exactly. If they don't know how to behave, and feel OK offending others, they get their ass kicked, so they'll think next time before opening their rotten mouths.
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| Mon May 07, 2012 1:27 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22199
Location: Places
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises OW Record Club of FUCK 3D Michael A wrote: Magnus wrote: Updated prediction:
Midnight: 32m (essentially Twilight numbers adjusted)
OD: 68m
Sat: 59.5m (12.5% drop from non-midnight Friday, 40.5% drop from total Friday)
Sun: 50.5m (15% drop)
OW: 210m
BOOK IT. I completely agree with this breakdown for now, believe it has potential to go even a little higher. 32 million in midnights seems fairly low, and it may not drop from fri to sat _________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Mon May 07, 2012 1:28 pm |
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Biggestgeekever
I heet the canadian!
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am
Posts: 5192
Location: The Great _______
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises OW Record Club of FUCK 3D Rev wrote: What's the current screen count record???? BOM is saying Avengers got 11,800 screens, which would be the new record. I haven't seen that confirmed anywhere else though.
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| Mon May 07, 2012 1:31 pm |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm
Posts: 8642
Location: Toronto, Canada
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises OW Record Club of FUCK 3D That's stupid silly day business for friday...
We can agree with this....
Tdkr went from beating TAa for sure to hit being a battle
_________________The Dark Prince 
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| Mon May 07, 2012 1:32 pm |
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redfirebird2008
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 4:13 am
Posts: 2483
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises OW Record Club of FUCK 3D Rev wrote: Biggestgeekever wrote: lol "sell out every show." Digital projection allows the vast majority of theaters to add showings on the fly if demand is there. And I can guarantee you this will be on a record # of screens. Just look at Pirates 3; even with Shrek 3 on its back it still got 11k screens because the 2nd one broke the OW record. Theater owners are going to WANT this film, and want it badly. What's the current screen count record???? 11,000 for DH2 and Pirates 3.
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| Mon May 07, 2012 1:35 pm |
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Brian
Ocarina of Time
Joined: Mon Aug 02, 2010 1:21 pm
Posts: 7951
Location: Hyrule
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises OW Record Club of FUCK 3D Quote: I agree with this assessment. Avengers is incredibly family friendly, while there is not a chance in hell that TDKR is family friendly. = bullshit How can a 200m opener film have only 1.6m fans on facebook, versus the 11m fans The Dark Knight has?
_________________
Most Anticipated 2023
1. Super Mario Bros Movie
2. Rebel Moon
3. Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning Part 1
4. Oppenheimer
5. The Flash
6. Elemental
7. Aquaman 2
8. Dune Part 2
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
10. Blue Beetle
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| Mon May 07, 2012 1:35 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises OW Record Club of FUCK 3D My 217.53m prediction stands, and summer dailies will ensure TDKRs victory.
TDKR: 659m
TA: 589m
_________________The Force Awakens
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| Mon May 07, 2012 1:39 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises OW Record Club of FUCK 3D Wow, you're being conservative for TA, BJ. How come?  Something is wrong if i have it higher. _________________
Last edited by Nazgul9 on Mon May 07, 2012 1:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Mon May 07, 2012 1:39 pm |
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redfirebird2008
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 4:13 am
Posts: 2483
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises OW Record Club of FUCK 3D BMP wrote: Quote: I agree with this assessment. Avengers is incredibly family friendly, while there is not a chance in hell that TDKR is family friendly. = bullshit How can a 200m opener film have only 1.6m fans on facebook, versus the 11m fans The Dark Knight has? Because it drew casual audiences. Walk-up sales were huge. WOM is insane with everyone watching it, which means even more casual audiences will be drawn into seeing it.
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| Mon May 07, 2012 1:41 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises OW Record Club of FUCK 3D Nazgul9 wrote: Wow, you're being conservative for TA, BJ. How come? Something is wrong if i have it higher. The Batman will win, and two films over 600m seemed a bit excessive. Though we do have 94 to show that it is possible once lion king and hump are adjusted. _________________The Force Awakens
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| Mon May 07, 2012 1:45 pm |
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