Meaning on average, SM3 increases 5.93 million a year. TDK 5.73 a year. Why else would it only be 800k behind it now, if it wasn't gaining on it. Based on the evidence that is there, SM3 will overtake it eventually. The small increase of tickets sold over SM3 is smaller than the amount of inflation.

Is it just me or does Thegun make absolutely no sense? How is it possible for one inflation adjusted value to go up faster than another? Inflation affects everything the same.

Are you serious? It all depends on what the gross was. The inflation rate stays the same, I would have thought that was obvious. If everything increased the same amount, there would be no reason to even follow adjusted numbers.

Do you think Star Wars and Rocky V adjusted grosses increase the same amount each year? Let's go back to basic math. we'll use an inflation rate of 5%. Star Wars grossed 322 million. Rocky V 42 million. Using the % Star Wars would increase 16.1 million. Rocky V would increase 2.1 million.

Thegun, do you realize that the gap between The Dark Knight and Spider-Man 3 is increasing every year when adjusted for inflation? When The Dark Knight opened in '08, Spider-Man 3's opening already adjusted to $157,705,900, a difference of $705,600. If you adjust for inflation each year since 2008, these are the differences in their grosses:

2008: $705,600
2009: $737,000
2010: $775,300
2011: $782,200

That's because, in the end, The Dark Knight sold more tickets. 22,062,900 vs. 21,964,600. If you adjust for inflation any year, TDK wins because it sold more. I think you're confused.

I'm talking in relative terms, the percentage increases a year is the same across the board. If $158,411,483 was more than $151,116,516 in 2008 dollars (that would be $157,705,900 for SP3 according to the post above me) it'll always be more, even in 100 years, SP3's opening will never overtake TDK's, adjusted. It's impossible.

Well, that's a whole other issue. We can't say that for sure, it depends on which movie had the pricier tickets on average (stuff like number of IMAX, matinee, kids tickets etc come into play). TDK seems to skew a little older and it sold more IMAX tickets for sure, my guess is SP3 actually sold more tickets on opening weekend.

Which is only logical. Inflation also applies to the gap.

thegun never makes any sense.

Apparently you know your basic math. I dunno why you didn't apply it in the case of TDK and SP3.

You guys are right, there is no way for it to overtake it unless there were more accurate breakdowns of ticket sales. I got confused with the yearly increase, and didn't take into account the year in between the two. I have a gap in my head. I did too many calculations in the last 10 posts. Apologies.

Back on point. I do think there is room for another 15+% increase out there, but I just don't see TDKR doing it. TDK like the original Batman was the game changer. TDK could barely increase, and we've seen Potter only increased with help. While I do think another 15%+ is out there someday, I just don't see enough in Batman's favor to do it. Like the others, something needs to change about the industry, or it needs to start a trend. There's no evidence to suggest either will happen by July.

Though I will admit, Trends don't start because someone can predict them. I'll just say 85 to 15 against.

Two trends since '08: even bigger midnight openings and more gross from IMAX.

TDK opened in just 94 IMAX theaters and grossed $6.4m opening weekend - a record at the time. Today, I believe Deathly Hollows, Pt. 2 has the record at $15.5m from 274 screens (can't think of anything that would be higher) while M:I-4 opened in a record 300 IMAX screens in December. So there's obviously a lot more potential gross from IMAX. TDK also had the midnight record at the time ($18.5m) which has more than doubled since.

TDK's opening adjusts to $175m, and I think the increase in IMAX and midnights over the last four years, plus the general hype of this being the last Batman film (in this series, at least) can bring $25m more opening weekend.

TDKR also has "Nolan hype" going for it. He certainly wasn't as big of a name back in 2008.

". 22,062,900 vs. 21,964,600"


If it is that close, I think we can easily say Spider Man 3 sold more tickets or is at least tied as it had a bigger Saturday meaning more kids watched it and that TDK skewed older and TDK had a much bigger Imax opening. Spiderman 3 came up around 3.5 million behind on Sunday and around 3.7 ahead on Saturday.


Anyways the conversation is pointless as TDK and Spider Man 3 are two of the most impressive openers ever for different reasons. TDK for setting the single day record, Sunday record and opening record.
Spider Man 3 for its Opening weekend record and its Saturday record.


Also talking about Saturday's, Spiderman 1 adjusted Saturday is just shy of 60 million.

If TDKR has bigger midnights doesn't mean it will still have the same Saturday and Sunday holds, the more midnights does not mean more people coming to see the movie they are indicative of rush factor. Bigger Midnights would satisfy that many audience that would otherwise rushed over Saturday and Sunday. While this is the last movie I do consider that Ledger's death contributed a little to the OW of TDK (yes not hugely but atleast more than a couple of million Fri-Sat-Sun) which might play a little bit of factor this time.

I think the OW record is almost certain to fall but somewhere between $180m-$185m sounds about right, maybe even $190m.

However, the movie will likely be more frontloaded then TDK.

Meaning, the Saturday will just crack 50 million but Sunday should be the same low drop.

10 day record is $313m by TDK

TDKR will beat that by at least 47m

OW 190m-205m
midweek - 80-90m
2nd wknd 90-105m
Total 360m-400m

The amount of tickets sold b/w SP3 and TDK OW's are strikingly similar with less than 100K tickets between them, but the legs are substantially different.

If you were to take the legs of TDK and use the multiplier against other recent Marvel films, Cap would have grossed 219M+ DOM, Thor 221M+, IM2 431M+

I simply don't see the Avengers beating out The Dark Knight Rises, let alone The Dark Knight. They would not only have to beat TDK's opening weekend, but have the same legs to top its DOM total. Even Iron Man 1 couldn't do that.

When was that in contention BTW? It is more than certain that it would not happen. I am not taking any names (cause I don't like feeding trolls) but you get the hint

I think Avengers would be considered a big success if it repeats the performance of IM2 imo.

Entertainment Weekly scans



I'm not sure if we have an official prediction thread yet, but I wouldn't mind if this one became that. It's gonna be a long 7 month wait anyway.

Yeah, Ok... Must I remind you about Ledgers death being the real sole reason why TDK did as well as it did??? You can deny this all you want, but once TDKR fails to match TDK domestic box office cause the villain sucks outside the fanbase, then you and all the other Batsuckers will have no other alternative but to accept this as being true..

I think the Avengers should be able to open as large as IM2 at least and likley bigger as it will have a massive Saturday gross based on the Spiderman and past Iron Man films...

The Friday could be well below 60 and even around 55 million, however the Saturday figure will be around 47-50+ and Sunday will see a big 30% drop. As I said, before IM2 only opened to 128 million but got a Saturday gross just 2 million behind TDK.

So with that I think Avengers should open to around 140 million.

55 Friday
50 Saturday -10% (IM2 dropped around that much)
35 Sunday -30%

for the weekend is solid.

That actually sounds very reasonable to me. Despite all the so call hype we have already seen how limited the mainstream appeal is on these flicks. The signs are all there. Both Thor and CA didn't really breakout that much and infact it looks like the same amount of people showed up for both. Also the fact the IM2 didn't have as much of an increase as it should have had considering the incredible WOM from IM1. So yeah I wouldn't be suprised if it went sub $150M.

Don't mention the Avengers here. It's not in TDKR's league and will never be

Avengers could challenge overseas. Asia is much less individualistic than America, so a super hero team could be very appealing.