Sunday adm.				August 28
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Overheard 2	55,552	41,389	-25.5%	-2.9%
2	Cowboys & Aliens	--	18,491	--	-9.0%
3	Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes	38,855	15,017	-61.4%	+1.8%
4	Horrible Bosses	--	13,109	--	-16.7%
5	Smurfs (3D Cantonese)	--	8,136	--	--

	Weekend adm.			Aug 25-28
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Overheard 2	151,485	120,303	-20.6%
2	Cowboys & Aliens	--	63,482	--
3	Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes	109,905	45,257	-58.8%
4	Horrible Bosses	--	44,072	--

August 25 Recap

Notes

- Moneyball opens November 10.

- The 33D Invader moves to September 22.

		Thursday Actuals						August 25
LW	TW	Title	Last Thu. (USD)	Thursday (USD)	% chg	Theaters	Days	Total
1	1	Overheard 2	$154,815	$97,462	-37.0%	42	8	$1,401,080
--	2	Cowboys & Aliens	--	$81,577	--	37	1	$81,577
2	3	Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes	$112,017	$43,569	-61.1%	37	15	$2,544,240
3	4	Final Destination 5	$100,511	$40,373	-59.8%	40	8	$736,358
--	5	Horrible Bosses	--	$38,510	--	30	1	$38,510
4	6	Cars 2	$61,802	$22,779	-63.1%	40	15	$2,143,880
6	7	Smurfs	$33,240	$21,685	-34.8%	31	22	$1,957,029
--	8	Summer Love Love	--	$18,718	--	29	1	$18,718
--	9	Wasao	--	$11,956	--	15	1	$11,956
5	10	Larry Crowne	$35,611	$11,174	-68.6%	21	8	$287,359

Transformers: Dark Of The Moon - $10,862,783
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 - $9,772,301
Kung Fu Panda 2 - $5,021,050
Mr. Popper's Penguins - $2,495,221
Captain America: The First Avenger - $2,463,296
Wu Xia - $1,031,526

First post updated with September releases.

September 29 just got even more crowded. Check the first post for more details.

August 25 Weekend

1 1 Sit yan fung wan 2 (Overheard 2) Newport $641,999 -27.9% 43 -7 $14,930 $1,941,011 2
2 N Cowboys & Aliens Intercontinental $407,732 - 36 - $11,326 $407,732 1
3 2 Rise of the Planet of the Apes Fox $258,048 -59.3% 35 -9 $7,373 $2,756,850 3
4 N Horrible Bosses WB $243,723 - 31 - $7,862 $243,723 1
5 3 Final Destination 5 WB $214,040 -52.6% 38 -8 $5,633 $900,821 2
6 4 Cars 2 Disney $167,645 -61.6% 46 -8 $3,644 $2,289,911 3
7 5 The Smurfs Sony $139,940 -33.3% 32 -1 $4,373 $2,101,066 4
8 N Summer Love Love Newport $82,319 - 30 - $2,744 $82,319 1
9 6 Larry Crowne Lark $68,649 -66.6% 19 -7 $3,613 $345,402 2
10 N Wasao Golden Scene $62,339 - 15 - $4,156 $62,339 1
11 N The Whistleblower Cable $40,595 - 8 - $5,074 $40,595 1
12 7 Fu Lu Shou (2011) Intercontinental $35,107 -77.1% 18 -15 $1,950 $791,637 3
13 8 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows (Part Two) WB $29,692 -64.6% 11 -8 $2,699 $9,803,128 7
14 10 Kung Fu Panda 2 Intercontinental $24,977 -63.5% 13 -12 $1,921 $5,045,701 6
15 9 Captain America: The First Avenger Intercontinental $17,514 -76.0% 7 -17 $2,502 $2,478,850 4
16 N Snow Flower and the Secret Fan EDKO $15,561 - 4 - $3,890 $15,561 1
17 12 Les petits mouchoirs (Little White Lies) Panasia $2,462 -68.2% 3 - $821 $45,123 3
18 14 The Tree of Life Golden Scene $1,938 -47.3% 2 - $969 $462,668 8
19 17 Eiga Doraemon Shin Nobita to tetsujin heidan: Habatake tenshitachi n/a $1,473 -52.2% 1 -3 $1,473 $219,134 5
20 11 Transformers 3 Intercontinental $949 -90.2% 1 -3 $949 $10,869,517 9
21 13 Wu Xia (Dragon) Lark $940 -85.9% 1 -3 $940 $1,032,857 5
22 16 Kureyon Shinchan: Arashi o yobu ougon no supai daisakusen n/a $284 -91.0% 1 -2 $284 $63,685 4

Cars 2 ended up staying ahead of The Smurfs. Summer Love Love did pretty bad. Yikes for Larry Crowne. $500,000 is not happening now. Wasao didn't do too well. Whistleblower overcame its slow start and posted an OK weekend. Captain America better pray for a miracle because it will need it to pass Thor and 2.5m now. Snow Flower and the Secret Fan opened to mediocre numbers.

Top 5 Biggest Surprises of 2011: Jan-Jul Edition

2. Sanctum



Released: February 17
OW - $1,008,465 ($1,327,321 including previews)
Total - $2,833,859 (2.81 multiplier)

When I first saw the trailer in theaters, I knew that this was going to be a hit. It wasn't because of its widespread appeal or because the movie looked good but because of how it was marketed. They spent the first quarter of the trailer promoting James Cameron and all his works and while I hoped that the masses did not succumb to the marketing, it exceeded box office expectations by a mile. It accumulated more than $300,000 from previews alone and opened with a humongous 1m opening. It pressed on with a very good drop of just 48% in its 2nd weekend, unfazed by Black Swan's opening. It saw rapid declines afterwards with the next 3 weekends falling above 60%. So what makes this movie so special? Currently, it sits in the top 10 highest grossers of the year at #8. It is the biggest grossing non-summer, non-holiday movie of the year so far. It managed to eclipse heavy hitters like Captain America: The First Avenger, Thor and the aforementioned Black Swan, which got heavy promotion here. The kicker? It creamed big countries like France, Germany and Mexico in gross and almost eclipsed the UK. This was a bonafide hit that struck with the masses who propelled it to a monstrous total.

September 1 Predictions

Have a look at the theater chains showing which new openers this weekend.

		Theaters
	Broadway	UA	AMC
Bad Teacher	Yes	Yes	Yes
3 Idiots	Yes	No	Yes
Jane Eyre	No	Yes	Yes
Laddaland	Yes	Yes	No

Bad Teacher is getting almost full support from Broadway and AMC theaters but less than half of the theaters are showing this in UA. 3 Idiots is getting great support from Broadway but none from any of the other theater chains. AMC is showing it in only 1/2 theaters. Jane Eyre is getting full support from AMC but just 1 theater from UA is showing it and no Broadway theaters took the plunge. Meanwhile, Laddaland is getting support from more than 50% of Broadway and UA theaters but did not get picked up by AMC. Interesting scheduling this weekend.


If you read my predictions and recaps on the main site, you know I referenced the table below in this week's predictions.

Title	Last Thu.	Mon.	% chg
Overheard 2	15,167	11,371	-25.0%
Cowboys & Aliens	12,143	5,933	-51.1%
Horrible Bosses	5,848	5,776	-1.2%
Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes	6,766	5,359	-20.8%
Final Destination 5 3D	4,289	3,467	-19.2%

UA has scheduled tentative dates for films coming out the rest of the year. Time will tell if these are right.

September 15 - My Kingdom (as opposed to September 22)
October 13 - Drive
October 27 - Warrior
November 3 - Dolphin Tale 3D, Sleepwalker 3D
November 17 - 50/50, Margin Call
November 24 - The Rum Diary
December 1 - A Very Harold & Kumar Christmas, Restless
December 8 - Straw Dogs (as compared with December 29 by other sites)

Seems like studios are thinking that Three Musketeers might fail. That might not be a bad idea as the period setting could turn off folks here.

	Thursday adm.	(so far)		September 1
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Overheard 2	4,901	3,271	-33.3%
2	Laddaland	--	1,291	--
3	Bad Teacher	--	1,100	--
4	Cowboys & Aliens	3,771	1,003	-73.4%
5	Horrible Bosses	1,814	967	-46.7%

Very good for Overheard 2. Ok for Laddaland but poor for Bad Teacher. Horrendous drop for Cowboys & Aliens. Horrible Bosses had a good drop given the competition.

	Thursday adm.			September 1
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Overheard 2	15,167	9,711	-36.0%
2	Laddaland	--	7,324	--
3	Horrible Bosses	5,848	4,091	-30.0%
4	Cowboys & Aliens	12,143	3,290	-72.9%
5	Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes	6,766	3,056	-54.8%

Biggest surprise is Bad Teacher not making the top 5. Terrible that Horrible Bosses is even beating it in its 2nd weekend. Overheard 2 and Horrible Bosses had great drops. I'm guessing that Overheard 2 and Horrible Bosses' drops are due to schools starting. Laddaland did well. Let's see if this is frontloaded. Cowboys & Aliens did poorly. Weekend drop should be even worse. Apes saw a big drop but this will improve on the weekend as theaters are giving this more showtimes because of disappointing sales for Bad Teacher, Cowboys, etc.

	Friday adm.	(so far)			September 2
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Overheard 2	8,762	6,502	-25.8%	+98.8%
2	Horrible Bosses	3,191	2,961	-7.2%	+206.2%
3	Laddaland	--	1,575	--	+22.0%
4	Cowboys & Aliens	4,538	1,499	-67.0%	+49.5%
5	Bad Teacher	--	1,465	--	+33.2%

Excellent for Overheard 2. Look at that increase for Horrible Bosses. Great drop for it too. Ok for Laddaland. Poor for Cowboys and Bad Teacher.

August 25 Weekend (Variety)

1. Overheard 2 Newport Ent. $640,306 2 41 $15,617 -29 $2,181,550
2. Cowboys & Aliens Paramount Int'l $408,019 1 34 $12,001 0 $541,736
3. Rise of the Planet of the Apes Fox Int'l $257,292 3 36 $7,147 -60 $2,869,479
4. Horrible Bosses Warner Bros Int'l $242,918 1 30 $8,097 0 $364,773
5. Final Destination 5 Warner Bros Int'l $210,131 2 35 $6,004 -55 $1,009,394
6. Cars 2 Walt Disney Int'l $163,634 3 36 $4,545 -63 $2,322,189
7. Smurfs, The Sony Int'l $143,473 4 33 $4,348 -33 $2,154,089
8. Summer Love 2011 Newport Ent. $83,307 1 29 $2,873 0 $132,685
9. Larry Crowne UA Films $68,667 2 19 $3,614 -67 $369,741
10. Wasao Golden Scene $62,295 1 15 $4,153 0 $92,778

Not much change from BOM's except totals are through August 31.

	Friday adm.				September 2
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Overheard 2	21,110	14,992	-29.0%	+54.4%
2	Horrible Bosses	9,378	6,593	-29.7%	+61.2%
3	Laddaland	--	6,035	--	-17.6%
4	Cowboys & Aliens	12,526	4,190	-66.5%	+27.4%
5	Bad Teacher	--	3,820	--	--

Very good for both Overheard 2 and Horrible Bosses. Steep but expected fall for Laddaland. Cowboys is crashing. Still not good for Bad Teacher but it at least had a big spike in admissions today.

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			September 3
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Overheard 2	16,006	7,472	-53.3%	+14.9%
2	Horrible Bosses	3,971	4,014	+1.1%	+35.6%
3	Laddaland	--	2,525	--	+60.3%
4	Cowboys & Aliens	6,383	2,111	-66.9%	+40.8%
5	3 Idiots	--	1,780	--	--

Overheard 2 is freefalling. First weak hold for it. It looks like demand has mostly been met. 3m should still happen. Wow for Horrible Bosses. $800,000 is within reach. Laddaland is doing ok. Cowboys still not doing well. Nice surprise to see 3 Idiots in the top 5. Admissions are being carried by IFC, Cinematheque and The One.

		Thursday Actuals						September 1
LW	TW	Title	Last Thu. (USD)	Thursday (USD)	% chg	Theaters	Days	Total
1	1	Overheard 2	$97,462	$56,306	-42.2%	41	15	$2,242,580
--	2	Laddaland	--	$41,238	--	26	1	$46,237
5	3	Horrible Bosses	$38,510	$26,136	-32.1%	29	8	$391,735
2	4	Cowboys & Aliens	$81,577	$23,848	-70.8%	35	8	$565,126
--	5	Bad Teacher	--	$23,807	--	24	1	$23,807
3	6	Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes	$43,569	$19,656	-54.9%	34	22	$2,890,452
4	7	Final Destination 5	$40,373	$15,024	-62.8%	18	15	$1,020,347
--	8	3 Idiots	--	$10,045	--	9	1	$11,559
--	9	Battle Royale 3D	--	$8,565	--	12	1	$8,565
8	10	Summer Love Love	$18,718	$6,844	-63.4%	17	8	$139,997

Transformers: Dark Of The Moon - $10,877,180
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 - $9,825,768
Kung Fu Panda 2 - $5,059,808
Captain America: The First Avenger - $2,487,681
The Smurfs - $2,153,610
Cars 2 - $2,368,949

Apes and Final Destination 5 did weak numbers. Slow for 3 Idiots. Almost non-existant numbers for Battle Royale 3D. Summer Love Love should end up with a total close to Beach Spike.

	Saturday adm.				September 3
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Overheard 2	42,637	26,775	-37.2%	+78.6%
2	Horrible Bosses	15,737	12,537	-20.3%	+90.2%
3	Laddaland	--	8,784	--	+45.6%
4	Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes	14,751	7,641	-48.2%	--
5	Cowboys & Aliens	20,322	6,984	-65.6%	+66.7%

Overheard 2 is still doing well with walk-ins. The emergence of Horrible Bosses has caused Bad Teacher to flop. Great number for Bosses. Laddaland's number is quite solid. It should end up with a good weekend number. Good recovery for Apes. Weak for Cowboys & Aliens.

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			September 4
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Overheard 2	16,715	7,211	-56.9%	-3.5%
2	Horrible Bosses	--	3,380	--	-15.8%
3	Cowboys & Aliens	7,652	2,536	-66.9%	+20.1%
4	Laddaland	--	2,277	--	-9.8%
5	Cars 2 (3D Cantonese)	4,516	2,155	-52.3%	--

The drop in pre-sales for Overheard 2 is somewhat alarming but it's being suppressed by the good walk-in support. No surprise that Horrible Bosses dropped in pre-sales today. Even though it was the only film to increase, that drop is horrible for Cowboys. Laddaland is still doing ok.

My September 1 Weekend Estimates

1. Overheard 2 - $396,000 (-38.3%)/$2,580,000
2. Horrible Bosses - $190,000 (-22.0%)/$555,000
3. Laddaland - $145,000
4. Cowboys & Aliens - $128,000 (-68.6%)/$660,000
5. Rise of the Planet of the Apes - $125,000 (-51.6%)/$2,995,000

Overheard 2 is slowing down. Horrible Bosses will have a great weekend drop and $800,000 is there if it doesn't get too badly beat up next week. Laddaland debuts quite well given that it's a foreign release with no 3D surcharge. Horrible drop for Cowboys & Aliens but this movie was always going to be frontloaded even with good reviews. Apes rebounded slightly after a subpar weekend before. Apes may or may not also cross 3m this weekend. If it doesn't, it will pass it on Monday.

Next weekend:



Contagion will take #1 next weekend. Also coming out are 3 romance movies (One Day, Midnight In Paris, Love In Space), a comedy (Treasure Hunt) and a Japanese animation film (Children Who Chase Lost Voices From Deep Below).

	Sunday adm.				September 4
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Overheard 2	41,389	22,183	-46.4%	-17.2%
2	Horrible Bosses	13,109	10,883	-17.0%	-13.2%
3	Laddaland	--	7,630	--	-13.1%
4	Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes	15,017	7,515	-50.0%	-14.4%
5	Cowboys & Aliens	18,491	7,061	-61.8%	--

Drops for Overheard 2 are getting bigger. Horrible Bosses had a great drop. Good number for Laddaland. Apes did slightly worse on Sunday but all in all not a bad weekend for it. Poor for Cowboys.

	Weekend adm.			Sept 1-4
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Overheard 2	120,303	73,661	-38.8%
2	Horrible Bosses	44,072	34,104	-22.6%
3	Laddaland	--	29,773	--
4	Cowboys & Aliens	63,482	21,525	-66.1%

Summary

Overheard 2 is #1 for the 3rd week in a row matching Inception's three week reign from July 2010. It also is the first film to repeat on top for 3 weeks this year. After this weekend, it will be close to 2.6m. Horrible Bosses had a spectacular drop. It should land in the mid to high $500,000 range after this weekend. Laddaland ends up with a solid admissions total and will open around the $150,000 mark. Cowboys losing 2/3 of its OW audience in its 2nd weekend is terrible. Much more was expected of it. It should finish in the $700,000-$750,000 range. Although not in the table, Apes probably took 5th place and will either pass 3m on Sunday or be very close to it.

Updated Weekend Estimates

1. Overheard 2 - $396,000 (-38.3%)/$2,580,000
2. Horrible Bosses - $190,000 (-22.0%)/$555,000
3. Laddaland - $155,000
4. Cowboys & Aliens - $140,000 (-65.6%)/$672,000
5. Rise of the Planet of the Apes - $125,000 (-51.6%)/$2,995,000

No weekend actuals yet for holdovers but here are the totals for the top 10 up until September 4.

1. Overheard 2 - $2,599,613
2. Horrible Bosses - $563,915
3. Cowboys & Aliens - $678,015
4. Rise of the Planet of the Apes - $2,992,004
5. Final Destination 5 - $1,094,020
6. Laddaland - $184,603 (WKD actual)
7. Bad Teacher - $137,550 (WKD actual)
8. Cars 2 - $2,415,680
9. The Smurfs - $2,201,697
10. Summer Love Love - $165,470

Overheard 2 and Rise of the Planet of the Apes will pass their respective milestones on Monday. Horrible Bosses will end up with more than Cowboys & Aliens. Cowboys & Aliens won't make much more when it disappears from theaters the coming weekend. Final Destination 5 had very solid legs for the franchise. Off the top of my head, I think it had the best multiplier of the series. Excellent start for Laddaland. Better for Bad Teacher if that WKD actual is correct. If that is the case then Cowboys and Apes should be higher than my estimates. Cars 2's run is disappointing. The Smurfs will end up with a good total after a mediocre opening. Summer Love Love will get overtaken by 3 romance movies next week.

Added The Monkey King to the poll. It is an upcoming Hong Kong production based on the well known novel Journey to the West. Also changed The Viral Factor's date to January 19.

I'm going to do something a bit different this week with the schedules. I'm going to break them down into their respective theater chains.

Broadway

Palace IFC
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Contagion - 6 showings	3 Idiots - 3 showings (▼ 5)	Snow Flower And The Secret Fan
Love in Space - 5 showings	Horrible Bosses - 2 showings (▼ 6)	Cowboys & Aliens
Midnight in Paris - 6 showings	Overheard 2 - 1 showing (▼ 5)	Larry Crowne
One Day - 5 showings		Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes
		Little White Lies
		Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D Eng.)

Olympian City
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Contagion - 6 showings	3 Idiots - 2 showings (▼ 5)	Cowboys & Aliens
Love in Space - 6 showings	Bad Teacher - 1 showing (▼ 5)	Cars 2 (Can.)
Midnight in Paris - 5 showings	Laddaland - 1 showing (▼ 5)	Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes
One Day - 6 showings	Horrible Bosses - 2 showings (▼ 3)	The Smurfs (3D Can.)
Treasure Hunt - 3 showings	Overheard 2 - 3 showings (▼ 5)	The Whistleblower
		Wasao

Palace APM
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Contagion - 7 showings	3 Idiots - 2 showings (▼ 5)	Battle Royale 3D
Love in Space - 7 showings	Bad Teacher - 1 showing (▼ 6)	Cowboys & Aliens
Midnight in Paris - 7 showings	Laddaland - 3 showings (▼ 7)	Summer Love Love
One Day - 7 showings	Horrible Bosses - 1 showing (▼ 2)	Wasao
Treasure Hunt - 3 showings	Overheard 2 - 4 showings (▼ 6)	Final Destination 5 3D
		Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes

Tsuen Wan
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Contagion - 6 showings	3 Idiots - 2 showings (▲ 0)	Cowboys & Aliens
Love in Space - 6 showings	Bad Teacher - 1 showing (▼ 5)	Horrible Bosses
Treasure Hunt - 3 showings	Laddaland - 2 showings (▼ 6)	Final Destination 5 3D
	Overheard 2 - 3 showings (▼ 5)	Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes

AMC

Pacific Place
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Contagion - 6 showings	3 Idiots - 3 showings (▲ 0)	Cowboys & Aliens
Love in Space - 3 showings	Bad Teacher - 2 showings (▼ 6)	Larry Crowne
Midnight in Paris - 6 showings	Jane Eyre - 5 showings (-)	Cars 2 (3D Eng.)
One Day - 6 showings	Horrible Bosses - 1 showing (▼ 6)	Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes
	The Whistleblower - 1 showing (▼ 3)	The Smurfs (3D Eng.)
	Overheard 2 - 1 showing (▼ 5)	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D Eng.)

Festival Walk
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Contagion - 6 showings	3 Idiots - 4 showings (▼ 5)	Cowboys & Aliens
Love in Space - 6 showings	Bad Teacher - 1 showing (▼ 6)	The Whistleblower
Midnight in Paris - 6 showings	Jane Eyre - 3 showings (▼ 5)	Cars 2 (3D Can.)
One Day - 6 showings	Horrible Bosses - 2 showings (▼ 6)	Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes
Treasure Hunt - 2 showings	Final Destination 5 3D - 1 showing (-)	The Smurfs (3D Can.)
	Overheard 2 - 3 showings (▼ 5)	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D Eng.)

UA

Times Square
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Contagion - 6 showings	Horrible Bosses - 2 showings (▼ 3)	Laddaland
Midnight in Paris - 5 showings	Overheard 2 - 4 showings (▼ 6)	Larry Crowne
One Day - 6 showings	Final Destination 5 3D - 1 showing (▼ 2)	Cowboys & Aliens

Langham Place
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Contagion - 7 showings	Bad Teacher - 2 showings (▼ 3)	Battle Royale 3D
Love in Space - 6 showings	Laddaland - 4 showings (▼ 6)	Cowboys & Aliens
Midnight in Paris - 6 showings	Horrible Bosses - 3 showings (-)
One Day - 7 showings	Overheard 2 - 3 showings (▼ 7)
	Summer Love Love - 1 showing (▲ 0)
	Larry Crowne - 1 showing (▼ 3)
	Final Destination 5 3D - 1 showing (▼ 4)
	Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes - 1 showing (▼ 4)

Good riddance to Cowboys & Aliens. This is gone after only 2 weeks from all Broadway, UA and AMC theaters. Luckily it still has some theaters showing this but it won't make $20,000 this weekend. Contagion and Love in Space are going ultra wide while One Day will be in a few less theaters. Midnight in Paris is going wide with about 15-20 theaters. Treasure Hunt is also going wide with more than half of the theaters showing it. Besides Cowboys, Overheard 2 was pretty much the lone survivor. Horrible Bosses is also still playing in quite a few theaters but saw some theaters cut it this week. Cars 2, The Smurfs, Rise of the Planet of the Apes and Final Destination 5 are all getting cut to varying degrees.

September 8 Predictions

	Thursday adm.	(so far)		September 8
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Contagion	--	3,542	--
2	One Day	--	3,211	--
3	Midnight in Paris	--	1,843	--
4	Love in Space	--	1,510	--
5	Overheard 2	3,271	967	-70.4%

I didn't expect Contagion to be on top. It looks like it will win all 4 days now. Not a bad start. I expected a lot more from One Day, however, given the fast pre-selling it did on Thursday. It will still churn out a good weekend. Very good number for Midnight in Paris. Its target for today is about 5,700 admissions although 6,000 is not out of bounds. On the flipside, quite weak for Love in Space since it got a really wide release. Awful for Overheard 2 although I think it will do about a 4 multiplier today to salvage the drop.

I just wanted to commend Bluebomb for this exceptionally detailed thread. Good work, keep it up!

Thanks for reading, Lecter.

	Thursday adm.			September 8
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Contagion	--	10,481	--
2	One Day	--	8,525	--
3	Midnight in Paris	--	3,535	--
4	Love in Space	--	3,274	--
5	Overheard 2	9,711	3,046	-68.6%

	Friday adm.	(so far)			September 9
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Contagion	--	4,754	--	+34.2%
2	One Day	--	4,232	--	+31.8%
3	Midnight in Paris	--	2,630	--	+42.7%
4	Love in Space	--	1,831	--	+21.3%
5	Overheard 2	6,502	1,336	-79.5%	+38.2%

	Friday adm.				September 9
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Contagion	--	12,528	--	+19.5%
2	One Day	--	11,090	--	+30.1%
3	Midnight in Paris	--	5,652	--	+59.9%
4	Overheard 2	14,992	4,315	-71.2%	+41.7%
5	Love in Space	--	3,800	--	+16.1%

It's not surprising that One Day closed the gap on Contagion as romantic movies seem to get a lift on Friday/Saturday. Contagion's number is a little on the weak side but the good news is that it beat Cowboys & Aliens opening Friday (by 2 admissions). Same for One Day. The increase wasn't great compared with Midnight in Paris and for a romantic film, while the smaller increase was understandable, it should have done much more than only a 30% Friday increase. Solid for Midnight in Paris. It's looking like it will outdo Vicky Cristina Barcelona's OW. That drop for Overheard 2 is so horrible that I think 3m is now in jeopardy. It will need at least a decent hold on Saturday/Sunday to get that milestone back on track. Not good for Love in Space. Apparently lightning does not strike twice.

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			September 10
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Contagion	--	7,358	--	+54.8%
2	One Day	--	6,653	--	+57.2%
3	Midnight in Paris	--	3,778	--	+43.7%
4	Overheard 2	7,472	2,808	-62.4%	+110.2%
5	3 Idiots	1,780	2,362	+32.7%	--

While I expect One Day to be competitive on Saturday, Contagion should handily take Sunday. Contagion is looking better at this point with weekend numbers looking quite strong. Contagion is tracking near Cowboys & Aliens but it should pull in a very strong Saturday since Cowboys still had the summer weekdays that it did not have. I expect somewhere around 23,000 admissions for today. One Day has faded somewhat but is still getting by ok. I think this will end with about 19,000 for the day. Midnight in Paris may be slowing down but it will probably be Woody Allen's best opener in the past few years. Good performance so far. Excellent increase for Overheard 2 although the drop is still not looking good. With the exception of Monday, this has been getting 3 multipliers all week so I expect somewhere between 9,000-10,000 which is a 63%-66% Saturday drop. Excellent for 3 Idiots. It added 3 theaters this week but it must have done better at some holdover locations than opening weekend. Impressive. It has to be very strong WOM kicking in. I can't see any other reason since there were many wide openers this week.

		Thursday Actuals						September 8
LW	TW	Title	Last Thu. (USD)	Thursday (USD)	% chg	Theaters	Days	Total
--	1	Contagion	--	$67,505	--	38	1	$67,505
--	2	One Day	--	$51,722	--	31	1	$51,722
--	3	Midnight in Paris	--	$25,915	--	17	1	$25,915
--	4	Love in Space	--	$25,091	--	36	1	$25,091
1	5	Overheard 2	$56,306	$19,806	-64.8%	40	22	$2,730,571
--	6	Treasure Hunt	--	$16,600	--	29	1	$16,600
3	7	Horrible Bosses	$26,136	$10,048	-61.6%	25	15	$644,187
2	8	Laddaland	$41,238	$8,578	-79.2%	21	8	$257,931
8	9	3 Idiots	$10,045	$7,014	-30.2%	13	8	$112,925
7	10	Final Destination 5	$15,024	$5,079	-66.2%	13	22	$1,131,876

Contagion did worse than Cowboys & Aliens OD but it should pick up this weekend. Since it did beat C&A's Friday, I expect it to flourish on Saturday and Sunday, handily trouncing Cowboy's opening weekend. Pretty good for One Day. $300,000 is still up for grabs but it will need a strong Saturday to offset the weaker Sunday number. Good start for Midnight in Paris. I'm thinking this will lead off with $150,000. Love in Space's number is bad considering the number of theaters this is in. I don't think it will even make Hot Summer Days' OW without the previews now. Terrible for Overheard 2. The new openers combined with the not as strong hold last weekend might have killed its chances of 3m. 3m is not completely dead yet but it's heading in the wrong direction. Treasure Hunt flopped. I guess no one cared enough to see Lucas in his debut role or his mother. Huge drop for Horrible Bosses but at least it will end its run with a nice total and beat Cowboys & Aliens' total despite opening with slightly more than half of Cowboys' OW. Laddaland fell off a cliff but that is a great total for a foreign horror movie. Good hold for 3 Idiots. It may make its way to $200,000. Final Destination 5's legs are a beast. Yes...I really just complimented on a horror movie's legs but they are spectacular when compared with its own franchise. It's already passed a 2.5 multiplier and should end with about 2.6.

Transformers: Dark Of The Moon - $10,868,404
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 - $9,839,524
Rise of the Planet of the Apes - $3,027,188
Captain America: The First Avenger - $2,492,194
The Smurfs - $2,208,357
Cars 2 - $2,420,032
The Fortune Buddies - $834,658
Cowboys & Aliens - $715,924

Just a note: Tuesday is a holiday so I will post Monday and Tuesday admissions this week.

September releases updated.

	Saturday adm.				September 10
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Contagion	--	22,691	--	+81.1%
2	One Day	--	19,492	--	+75.8%
3	Overheard 2	26,775	9,608	-64.1%	+122.7%
4	Midnight in Paris	--	9,326	--	+65.0%
5	3 Idiots	--	6,367	--	--

Quite strong for Contagion. One Day did fine but nothing outstanding. While the drop is terrible, Overheard 2 did have a superb increase. It's definitely benefiting from the upcoming holiday and I suspect it will post a very strong 4-day (Sat.-Tues.) with mainlanders flocking here. I'm a bit disappointed that Midnight in Paris didn't do slightly bigger numbers but it will still beat out Vicky Cristina Barcelona's OW. Excellent for 3 Idiots.

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			September 11
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Contagion	--	7,407	--	+0.7%
2	One Day	--	5,699	--	-14.3%
3	Midnight in Paris	--	3,314	--	-12.3%
4	3 Idiots	--	2,974	--	+25.9%
5	Overheard 2	7,211	2,957	-59.0%	+5.3%

Good for Contagion. Ugly for One Day and Midnight in Paris but romantic movies takes a hit on Sundays. Fantastic for 3 Idiots. Overheard is slowly closing the gap. I suspect it won't drop that much % wise today from yesterday.

September 8 Weekend Estimates

1. Contagion - $416,000
2. One Day - $330,000
3. Midnight in Paris - $155,000
4. Overheard 2 - $140,000 (-66.4%)/$2,815,000
5. Love in Space - $125,000

3 Idiots - $70,000 (-6.4%)/$165,000

Contagion put in a good performance but One Day was the star of the weekend. Midnight in Paris also did wonderfully. Overheard 2 and Love in Space both did poorly. 3 Idiots might see an increase this weekend. Even without it, the worst it can do is a small drop. Wow. Very good run so far for 3 Idiots.

Top 5 Biggest Surprises of 2011: Jan-Jul Edition

So you want to know what is number 1, huh? We'll get to that in just a moment, but first...a look at our honourable mentions!

Honourable Mention - X-Men: First Class

Coming off a weak prequel, this had no business becoming the highest grossing X-Men movie in the franchise...let alone grossing more than 3m. Every week, however, this continued to buck the X-Men trend as it held on for 4 weeks with good holds before succumbing to Transformers and then to Harry Potter.


Honourable Mention - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Harry Potter took Hong Kong by storm when it came out July 14. While it gave way to Kung Fu Panda 2 the week after, it still came away with a very solid hold. The next couple of weeks saw it flirt around 50% until the 5th weekend when it got hit from the Apes and Cars 2 combo. As of this weekend, it is still showing and when all is said and done, it will finish just under 10m...a feat that no other Harry Potter movie came close to or would have done with or without 3D.


Honourable Mention - Transformers: Dark of the Moon

You're probably wondering why this isn't #1. Even though this set records with grosses and admissions opening weekend, the weekends after were fairly mundane. Opening weekend was a sight to behold though. It crushed the OW by over 1m (4-day). It debuted with the highest screen count for any movie ever with 166 and set an opening weekend admissions record. Other than that, it was somewhat muted by the surprise hit Mr. Popper's Penguins in its second weekend then got steamrolled when Harry Potter took over in its 3rd weekend. It will finish with just under 11m, an amazing gross for the Transformers franchise but its whole run was contingent on its 1st weekend.

















.
.
.












1. Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy 3D



Released: April 14
OW - $1,660,431
Total - $5,272,166 (3.18 multiplier)

Even after Sanctum's impressive results, one film was still be able to beat it. Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy 3D took over Hong Kong and completely came out of left field with its opening, its total gross and its insane run. To achieve maximum gross, theaters ran special gimmicks like ladies only special screenings and others to gross as much money as possible.

Chronicling its run, Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy debuted on top and delivered the best opening for any Category III-rated movie and dominated opening weekend with sellouts being reported across the board. In its 2nd weekend, it slid just 48% on Easter weekend even with an unprecedented 11 new films out. 3rd weekend saw it drop 53% with Thor and The Lost Bladesman released and coming off 2 holidays from Easter weekend. 4th weekend rebounded with a 51% drop after coming off a holiday-fueled Sunday its 3rd weekend. While others dropped 60% or above, this had the best drop of the top 20 and of any film showing on more than 2 screens that weekend. Weak openers in its 5th weekend helped as it once again had the best hold of any release, declining just 25%. Pirates 4 coming out on its 6th weekend had little effect. It enjoyed the smallest decrease of the top 12 and was the only film to slip under 55% with a 39% hold. 7th weekend was no different as it had the best hold of any release, a 25% decrease and pushed it up to 4.975m. The 5m mark was broken in Sex & Zen's 8th weekend as The X-Men and Hangover 2 duo did little damage. The porno soldiered on with only a 29% decline. 9th weekend fell a little harder with Super 8 and Microsex Office opening but it still managed a good hold. Sex & Zen defied odds and increased in its 10th weekend with a huge 19% jump with no holidays and losing 3 screens. 11th weekend saw the release of Beginning of the Great Revival and Treasure Inn but that didn't do much to Sex & Zen. It managed a very good 33% drop to sneak past 5.2m. Transformers didn't completely wreck it and it survived with a 41% drop in its 12th weekend. It started to slow down in its 13th weekend as it dropped 50%. 14th weekend was Harry Potter's farewell party but it bled only a little bit, down 14% even though it lost 2/3 of its screens. Kung Fu Panda 2 didn't do much to Sex & Zen either as it came away relatively unscathed with a 22% drop in its 15th weekend. Wu Xia took a bite of Sex & Zen's sails as it lost 43% from the previous week. In its final weekend, its 17th, it still posted a good drop of only 30% and its total creeped up to $5,272,644.

That number would be revised to a lower one when finals were reported but this was a spectacular run. It spent 17 weeks in release and tied Toy Story 3 for the longest release since Avatar and beat out such stalwarts like Inception, The Dark Knight and other hot releases. When other films would see large declines as they near the end of their runs, this did the opposite and enjoyed a 13 week period of declines 50% or less!

In terms of total gross, this beat out big names like Kung Fu Panda 2, all superhero films, Cars 2, I Love Hong Kong and others. This has revived the porn industry here and a sequel is being planned. I can't wait to see what they will do with the next installment. 4D perhaps?

Highlights

Opening weekend - $1.66 million, highest opening ever for III rated movie
2nd weekend - 48% drop with 11 new openers to contend with
3rd weekend - 53% drop with release of Thor and The Lost Bladesman
4th weekend - ...
5th weekend - 25% drop, passed 4.7m
6th weekend - 39% drop with release of Pirates 4
7th weekend - 25% drop
8th weekend - 29% drop with X-Men: First Class and Hangover 2 openers, passed 5m
9th weekend - ...
10th weekend - 19% increase
11th weekend - passed 5.2m
12th weekend - 41% drop in face of Transformers 3
13th weekend - ...
14th weekend - 14% drop with finale of Harry Potter opening
15th weekend - 22% drop with Kung Fu Panda 2 opening
16th weekend - [ties Inception for number of weeks in release]
17th weekend - final weekend, 30% drop, [ties Toy Story 3 for number of weeks in release]

5th-17th weekend - dropped 50% or below

To relive Sex & Zen's run in Hong Kong: Sex & Zen's entire run

	Sunday adm.				September 11
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Contagion	--	18,232	--	-19.7%
2	One Day	--	15,494	--	-20.5%
3	Overheard 2	22,183	9,157	-58.7%	-4.7%
4	Midnight in Paris	--	7,517	--	-19.4%
5	3 Idiots	--	6,565	--	+3.1%

Not great for Contagion. We know why One Day and Midnight in Paris suffer heavy declines on Sunday but Contagion's seems like mixed WOM creeping in. Overheard 2 is trying to salvage the weekend. It had a good decline from Saturday but that weekend drop is still not good. Eye-popping for 3 Idiots. Just a great weekend for it.

	Weekend adm.			Sept 8-11
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Contagion	--	63,932	--
2	One Day	--	49,611	--
3	Overheard 2	73,661	26,126	-64.5%
4	Midnight in Paris	--	26,030	--

Contagion finishes with 400+ admissions more than Cowboys & Aliens. One Day did quite well. After a scare on Thursday and Friday, Overheard 2 came back on Saturday and Sunday and posted decent enough holds to secure 3m. Midnight in Paris did good and will do more than Vicky Cristina Barcelona.

Updated September 8 Weekend Estimates

1. Contagion - $410,000
2. One Day - $305,000
3. Midnight in Paris - $155,000
4. Overheard 2 - $150,000 (-63.9%)/$2,825,000
5. Love in Space - $125,000

3 Idiots - $73,000 (-2.4%)/$168,000

	Monday adm.				September 12
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	One Day	--	12,996	--	-16.1%
2	Contagion	--	12,348	--	-32.3%
3	Overheard 2	5,530	6,777	+22.5%	-26.0%
4	Lan Kwai Fong	--	6,435	--	--
5	Midnight in Paris	--	5,364	--	-28.6%

One Day beating Contagion is a surprise. It seems like Contagion is having mixed -> negative word of mouth. That drop from Sunday for Contagion is horrible. Meh for Overheard 2 although it is not unexpected. Very good for Lan Kwai Fong. Poor daily drop for Midnight in Paris. I thought good WOM would have kicked in by now.

	Tuesday adm.				September 13
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	One Day	--	20,315	--	+56.3%
2	Contagion	--	19,339	--	+56.6%
3	3 Idiots	3,011	11,662	+287.3%	--
4	Overheard 2	9,061	11,236	+24.0%	+65.8%
5	Midnight in Paris	--	9,675	--	+80.4%

Ok for both One Day and Contagion. Amazing for 3 Idiots. Just wow. Ok for Overheard 2. Midnight in Paris did better today.

September 15 Predictions

	Thursday adm.	(so far)		September 15
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Mayday 3DNA	--	4,748	--
2	Lan Kwai Fong	--	2,900	--
3	One Day	3,211	1,615	-49.7%
4	Contagion	3,542	1,611	-54.5%
5	Pina 3D	--	1,337	--

Good start for Mayday 3DNA. The question now is how well will it do with walk-ins? About what I expected for Lan Kwai Fong. Meh for both One Day and Contagion. Incredible number for Pina. That is around $9,000 US from just 2 theaters! It would be amazing if this can get close to $80,000 for the weekend. It'll get overtaken by one of the other films (Midnight in Paris or Insidious) later today but what a start for Pina.

Is Pina a Hong Kong film or what?

Bridesmaids opened Thursday in 10 theaters for about 50 showings per day. It didn't make it to the top 5 as of early Thursday morning.

No. German film but features many languages in the musical documentary. Pina

September 8 Weekend

1 N Contagion WB $394,758 - 37 - $10,669 $394,758 1
2 N One Day Lark $298,065 - 33 - $9,032 $298,065 1
3 1 Sit yan fung wan 2 (Overheard 2) Newport $145,697 -65.0% 40 -2 $3,642 $2,858,775 4
4 N Midnight in Paris Golden Scene $143,296 - 18 - $7,961 $143,296 1
5 2 Horrible Bosses WB $90,344 -54.6% 26 -2 $3,475 $725,108 3
6 N Love in Space Fox $87,467 - 38 - $2,302 $87,467 1
7 8 3 Idiots EDKO $75,955 +1.6% 13 +4 $5,843 $181,717 2
8 N Treasure Hunt Newport $72,101 - 29 - $2,486 $72,101 1
9 3 Ladda Land Panasia $47,490 -74.1% 19 -7 $2,499 $295,026 2
10 7 Final Destination 5 WB $30,006 -67.1% 14 -7 $2,143 $1,157,559 4
11 6 Rise of the Planet of the Apes Fox $18,630 -85.0% 16 -19 $1,164 $3,047,432 5
12 4 Bad Teacher Sony $18,474 -87.0% 18 -7 $1,026 $201,812 2
13 13 Jane Eyre (2011) Lark $16,826 -46.2% 3 - $5,609 $59,713 2
14 N Hoshi o ou kodomo Intercontinental $13,422 - 3 - $4,474 $13,435 1
15 9 The Smurfs Sony $11,651 -78.7% 13 -14 $896 $2,241,549 6
16 10 Cars 2 Disney $10,387 -80.2% 16 -16 $649 $2,433,410 5
17 16 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows (Part Two) WB $5,500 -72.0% 2 -7 $2,750 $9,857,691 9
18 5 Cowboys & Aliens Intercontinental $4,525 -96.7% 6 -30 $754 $720,494 3
19 12 Lian Xia Lian Xia Lian Lian Xia Newport $3,791 -88.6% 4 -14 $948 $182,776 3
20 15 Wasao Golden Scene $3,319 -84.4% 3 -10 $1,106 $131,056 3
21 11 Batoru rowaiaru 3D (Battle Royale 3D) Intercontinental $2,479 -92.9% 3 -9 $826 $56,774 2
22 14 Larry Crowne Lark $2,138 -91.3% 4 -9 $535 $404,078 4
23 17 Fu Lu Shou (2011) Intercontinental $1,156 -92.9% 4 -11 $289 $836,762 5
24 19 Captain America: The First Avenger Intercontinental $831 -86.0% 2 -1 $416 $2,496,235 6
25 21 The Tree of Life Golden Scene $678 -47.8% 1 - $678 $466,659 10
26 23 Transformers 3 Intercontinental $382 -47.0% 1 - $382 $10,883,176 11
27 20 Snow Flower and the Secret Fan EDKO $352 -92.9% 1 -1 $352 $30,058 3
28 18 Kung Fu Panda 2 Intercontinental $300 -96.6% 1 -6 $300 $5,071,200 8

3 Idiots actually increased. Superb. Really poor for Love in Space. That might be the worst PSA for a very wide release on opening weekend I've seen this year. Cowboys & Aliens fell over 96% in its 3rd weekend and it actually had the worst drop of the entire weekend. Captain America managed to pass Thor and Mr. Popper's Penguins but will miss 2.5m.

	Thursday adm.			September 15
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Lan Kwai Fong	--	9,904	--
2	Mayday 3DNA	--	5,764	--
3	One Day	8,525	5,220	-38.8%
4	Insidious	--	4,293	--
5	Contagion	10,481	3,517	-66.4%

Good increase for Lan Kwai Fong. Being a concert movie, Mayday wasn't going to see the increases like any other movie gets. Good hold for One Day. Very good for Insidious. Weak hold for Contagion.

		Thursday Actuals						September 15
LW	TW	Title	Last Thu. (USD)	Thursday (USD)	% chg	Theaters	Days	Total
--	1	Lan Kwai Fong	--	$62,215	--	33	1	$240,109
--	2	Mayday 3DNA	--	$33,555	--	22	1	$33,555
2	3	One Day	$51,722	$30,984	-40.1%	31	8	$536,715
--	4	Insidious	--	$27,842	--	35	1	$65,484
1	5	Contagion	$67,505	$21,879	-67.6%	38	8	$645,855
3	6	Midnight in Paris	$25,915	$13,627	-47.4%	16	8	$252,949
--	7	Bridesmaids	--	$12,154	--	10	1	$26,964
9	8	3 Idiots	$7,014	$10,999	+56.8%	13	15	$277,345
--	9	Pina 3D	--	$7,916	--	2	1	$7,916
5	10	Overheard 2	$19,806	$7,715	-61.0%	34	29	$2,972,377

Good start for Lan Kwai Fong although I'm convinced that it will be frontloaded and decrease/increase slightly on Friday but do slightly better numbers on the weekend. Still, including previews, Mayday will not be able to catch it now since it will open with about $450,000. Mayday had an ok start on Thursday but I expect things to pick up this weekend as teenage fans won't be in school then. Good hold for One Day and the possibility is there now that it will beat Contagion's total in the end. Insidious did well. It should make more than $150,000 this weekend...maybe $200,000 if it doesn't experience the opening weekend legs of a typical horror movie. Weak hold for Contagion. It'll end up with a pretty unspectacular total of about $800,000. Midnight in Paris should end up on its way to beating Vicky Cristina Barcelona. Hold isn't great but it'll do better on the weekend. Not bad for Bridesmaids. I can see a weekend of about $80,000. Use any positive superlatives you want about 3 Idiots. It's doing well. I don't think it'll be able to increase again this weekend but it should see a great drop. After this weekend, it'll be at $330,000. That Pina number looks really low. Its ratio is even worse than what most non-3D films have from admissions to gross. Its numbers apparently don't include the previews it had earlier. It could end up with $40,000 for the weekend. Overheard 2 had another bad hold but it should still cross 3m after this weekend and end up grossing more than Rise of the Planet of the Apes.

	Friday adm.				September 16
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Lan Kwai Fong	--	10,066	--	+1.6%
2	One Day	11,090	8,404	-24.2%	+61.0%
3	Insidious	--	6,071	--	+41.4%
4	Mayday 3DNA	--	5,863	--	+1.7%
5	Contagion	12,528	5,414	-56.8%	+53.9%

Not good for Lan Kwai Fong. One Day had a great drop. Solid increase for Insidious. Troubling for Mayday 3DNA. A bit better for Contagion.

Notes

- From Kokuriko Hill (From Up On Poppy Hill) is slated for release on January 19, 2012.

- Puss in Boots moves from its January 21, 2012 date up to November 17, 2011.

	Saturday adm.				September 17
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Lan Kwai Fong	--	16,668	--	+65.6%
2	One Day	19,492	14,141	-27.5%	+68.3%
3	Insidious	--	11,072	--	+82.4%
4	3 Idiots	6,367	10,229	+60.7%	--
5	Contagion	22,691	8,258	-63.6%	+52.5%

	Sunday adm.				September 18
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Lan Kwai Fong	--	11,939	--	-28.4%
2	One Day	15,494	11,048	-28.7%	-21.9%
3	3 Idiots	6,565	10,786	+64.3%	+5.4%
4	Insidious	--	8,798	--	-20.5%
5	Contagion	18,232	6,586	-63.9%	-20.2%

	Weekend adm.			Sept 15-18
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Lan Kwai Fong	--	48,577	--
2	One Day	49,611	38,813	-21.8%
3	Insidious	--	30,234	--
4	Contagion	63,932	23,775	-62.8%

The big story is not at the top but lies with 3 Idiots. It didn't add any theaters and was boosted by huge bumps on Thursday (in gross), Saturday and Sunday (in admissions). Friday's number is unknown. Lan Kwai Fong, meanwhile, took on Mayday and delivered a steady performance this weekend. Granted, Friday only nudged up 2% from Thursday but Saturday solidified its hold on top.

September 15 Weekend Estimates

1. Lan Kwai Fong - $290,000/$468,000
2. One Day - $226,000 (-24.2%)/$732,000
3. Insidious - $180,000/$217,500
4. Mayday 3DNA - $165,000
5. Contagion - $146,000 (-63.0%)/$770,000
* 3 Idiots - $123,275 (+62.3%, $9,482 PSA)/$389,620

Good opening for Lan Kwai Fong. $700,000 might be achievable. Next weekend's drop will be very interesting. One Day had a great drop. It looks like it's displaying very strong legs among its target audience. Insidious opened strongly for a horror movie. Next week, it goes up against Apollo 18 so $450,000 is still not certain yet. Mayday really struggled. It did not even manage a top 5 ranking on Saturday/Sunday but 3D prices will keep it above Contagion in my opinion. Many theaters thought this would take the weekend with pre-selling being made available about 3 weeks in advance. Contagion suffered a huge drop. Really awful WOM for it and it will finish below One Day which is a disappointment. If there was ever a time to use any superlatives this week, it would be now with 3 Idiots posting an increase of about 60% with no added theaters. That is incredible. Even more incredible is that this is its 3rd weekend! It'll finish with over $550,000. For a foreign release (especially Indian movies) that premiered almost 2 years ago in its home country, that is like a blockbuster gross in itself.

If you haven't checked out the front page yet, Part 1 of my summer recap is up. Take a look.
2011 Summer Recap Part 1

September 15 Weekend

1 N Lan Kwai Fong Gala $525,847 - 35 - $15,024 $525,847 1
2 N Insidious n/a $225,608 - 35 - $6,446 $225,608 1
3 2 One Day Lark $207,287 -30.5% 31 -2 $6,687 $713,503 2
4 N Mayday 3DNA Deltamac $153,107 - 22 - $6,959 $153,107 1
5 1 Contagion WB $151,531 -61.6% 39 +2 $3,885 $776,426 2
6 7 3 Idiots EDKO $127,743 +68.2% 14 +1 $9,125 $393,830 3
7 4 Midnight in Paris Golden Scene $109,150 -23.8% 16 -2 $6,822 $348,938 2
8 N Bridesmaids EDKO $103,433 - 10 - $10,343 $103,433 1
9 3 Sit yan fung wan 2 (Overheard 2) Newport $59,317 -59.3% 33 -7 $1,797 $3,026,157 5
10 5 Horrible Bosses WB $45,062 -50.1% 20 -6 $2,253 $835,182 4
11 N Pina EDKO $39,809 - 2 - $19,905 $39,809 1
12 8 Treasure Hunt Newport $20,810 -71.1% 12 -17 $1,734 $143,464 2
13 9 Ladda Land Panasia $11,997 -74.7% 12 -7 $1,000 $333,295 3
14 6 Love in Space Fox $10,434 -88.1% 23 -15 $454 $148,708 2
15 11 Rise of the Planet of the Apes Fox $9,609 -48.4% 9 -7 $1,068 $3,069,033 6
16 15 The Smurfs Sony $6,833 -41.4% 8 -5 $854 $2,261,210 7
17 13 Jane Eyre (2011) Lark $6,817 -59.5% 3 - $2,272 $79,206 3
18 14 Hoshi o ou kodomo Intercontinental $5,850 -56.4% 2 -1 $2,925 $26,273 2
19 10 Final Destination 5 WB $5,202 -82.7% 4 -10 $1,301 $1,179,466 5
20 16 Cars 2 Disney $3,751 -63.9% 6 -10 $625 $2,443,020 6
21 17 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows (Part Two) WB $3,388 -38.4% 2 - $1,694 $9,863,623 10
22 18 Cowboys & Aliens Intercontinental $1,671 -63.1% 2 -4 $836 $725,772 4
23 12 Bad Teacher Sony $1,533 -91.7% 2 -16 $767 $214,666 3
24 22 Larry Crowne Lark $1,088 -49.1% 2 -2 $544 $407,156 5
25 20 Wasao Golden Scene $1,078 -67.5% 2 -1 $539 $138,088 4
26 25 The Tree of Life Golden Scene $442 -34.8% 1 - $442 $470,457 11
27 28 Kung Fu Panda 2 Intercontinental $272 -9.3% 1 - $272 $5,071,620 9
28 26 Transformers 3 Intercontinental $261 -31.7% 1 - $261 $10,883,894 12

All openers besides Mayday 3DNA and Pina had their special screenings added to this weekend's gross. Pina had special screenings about 3 weeks ago but those might not have been included because those showings were part of a festival. Anyways, good for Lan Kwai Fong although next weekend's drop will be gigantic. Insidious did good. It did have multiple special screenings though. One Day had a great drop. Mayday 3DNA didn't have good walk-ins leading to its mild opening. Contagion really dropped the ball this weekend. 3 Idiots did fantastic. Midnight in Paris had a superb drop. It will finish above Vicky Cristina Barcelona and above $400,000. Bridesmaids had a good opening. It did have holiday special screenings which lead to a pretty big PSA. Overheard 2's drop wasn't great but not horrible given the screen cuts. It will pass Rise of the Planet of the Apes' total by a hair. Good drop for Horrible Bosses considering the competition from Bridesmaids in the business district and other foreigner hotspots. Pina's OW is amazing. The quirkyness/weirdness of the movie really drew people in. Harry Potter is still chugging along slowly. Interesting to note that Transformers has been showing in the 1 theater for 4 weekends now with the same showtime.

	Thursday adm.	(so far)		September 22
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	3 Idiots	--	1,757	--
2	Lan Kwai Fong	2,900	1,613	-44.4%
3	Zookeeper	--	1,388	--
4	Paradise Kiss	--	1,379	--
5	Apollo 18	--	1,364	--

3 Idiots pulled off another increase. It didn't even rank in the top 5 last Thursday in pre-sales. Superb. Lan Kwai Fong won't get the same multiplier it got last Thursday as its showtimes got cut. Zookeeper, Paradise Kiss and Apollo 18 are really interchangeable although Zookeeper's number is the best of the three since it is a kids movie. The top 3 right now probably won't gain much in admissions throughout the day so it is up to Paradise Kiss or Apollo 18 to take opening day.

September 22 Predictions

Quite solid for Insidious.

	Thursday adm.			September 22
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Lan Kwai Fong	9,904	4,804	-51.5%
2	Apollo 18	--	4,106	--
3	Paradise Kiss	--	4,091	--
4	Colombiana	--	3,920	--
5	3 Idiots	--	3,298	--

Not too shabby for Lan Kwai Fong. I'm actually surprised at its drop since it got its showtimes cut in half in quite a few places. Solid for Apollo 18. It's following Insidious from last week. Very good number for Paradise Kiss. Colombiana recovered nicely at the end. Excellent number for 3 Idiots once again. It increased from last Thursday.

From these admissions and weekend schedules, Lan Kwai Fong, Apollo 18, Paradise Kiss and 3 Idiots all have legitimate shots at #1. Lan Kwai Fong has a 50/50 shot at this point. It has a small lead but 3 Idiots will definitely pick up this weekend. So will Paradise Kiss, I think. Apollo 18 will probably finish in 2nd or 3rd since it's a horror movie. Paradise Kiss has a shot at #1. Ticket sales have been very solid even though it's in less theaters. Never count out 3 Idiots. Its Saturday and Sunday is expected to be fantastic...so much so that I think it will take #1 on those two days.

Colombiana had poor pre-selling which caused it to be put in smaller theaters this weekend. Its chances look all but gone. #1 for Zookeeper is out of reach now. $100,000 for the weekend is looking iffy.

	Friday adm.	(so far)			September 23
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	3 Idiots	--	2,875	--	+63.6%
2	Paradise Kiss	--	2,164	--	+56.9%
3	Apollo 18	--	1,755	--	+28.7%
4	Zookeeper	--	1,543	--	+11.2%
5	Lan Kwai Fong	2,824	1,489	-47.3%	-7.7%

Very good for 3 Idiots and Paradise Kiss. Apollo 18 did ok. Zookeeper didn't do great while Lan Kwai Fong's number is poor.

My summer recap continues with part 2! 2011 Summer Recap Part 2

	Friday adm.				September 23
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	3 Idiots	--	6,199	--	+88.0%
2	Lan Kwai Fong	10,066	5,776	-42.6%	+20.2%
3	Paradise Kiss	--	5,713	--	+39.6%
4	Apollo 18	--	5,431	--	+32.3%
5	Colombiana	--	5,024	--	+28.2%

Stunning for 3 Idiots. It's going to increase for the 3rd weekend in a row! Not bad for Lan Kwai Fong although all the other top 5 movies are catching up to it. Apollo 18 didn't do too badly. It should do bigger numbers than Insidious on the weekend. Ok for Colombiana.

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			September 24
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	3 Idiots	3,488	4,032	+15.6%	+40.2%
2	Paradise Kiss	--	3,053	--	+41.1%
3	Apollo 18	--	2,318	--	+32.1%
4	Lan Kwai Fong	3,967	2,194	-44.7%	+47.3%
5	Colombiana	--	2,038	--	--

		Thursday Actuals						September 22
LW	TW	Title	Last Thu. (USD)	Thursday (USD)	% chg	Theaters	Days	Total
1	1	Lan Kwai Fong	$62,215	$29,690	-52.3%	35	8	$703,920
--	2	Apollo 18	--	$26,795	--	31	1	$26,795
--	3	Colombiana	--	$24,529	--	27	1	$28,208
--	4	Paradise Kiss	--	$18,685	--	19	1	$29,490
8	5	3 Idiots	$10,999	$15,769	+43.4%	13	22	$460,304
3	6	One Day	$30,984	$13,114	-57.7%	30	15	$800,929
4	7	Insidious	$27,842	$10,273	-63.1%	31	8	$310,288
--	8	Zookeeper	--	$8,779	--	19	1	$8,779
6	9	Midnight in Paris	$13,627	$7,561	-44.5%	14	15	$393,631
--	10	The Help	--	$6,715	--	6	1	$6,715

Other totals:
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 - $9,843,641
Rise of the Planet of the Apes - $3,065,301
Overheard 2 - $3,046,809
Cars 2 - $2,438,179
The Smurfs - $2,234,220
Final Destination 5 - $1,179,577
Wu Xia - $1,030,988
Horrible Bosses - $845,812
Contagion - $830,259

Ok drop for Lan Kwai Fong. It's drop will be slightly larger on the weekend. Almost an identical start to Insidious for Apollo 18. This should do better on the weekend. Disappointing for Colombiana. Good for Paradise Kiss. 3 Idiots did another great job. Huge drops for One Day and Insidious. Zookeeper flopped. Very strong for Midnight in Paris. Good number for The Help.

	Saturday adm.				September 24
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	3 Idiots	10,229	12,010	+17.4%	+93.7%
2	Apollo 18	--	9,538	--	+75.6%
3	Paradise Kiss	--	9,457	--	+65.5%
4	Lan Kwai Fong	16,668	9,031	-45.8%	+56.4%
5	Colombiana	--	8,942	--	+78.0%

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			September 25
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	3 Idiots	4,439	5,269	+18.7%	+30.7%
2	Apollo 18	--	2,815	--	+21.4%
3	Paradise Kiss	--	2,725	--	-10.7%
4	Colombiana	--	2,407	--	+18.1%
5	One Day	3,721	2,282	-38.7%	--

	Sunday adm.				September 25
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	3 Idiots	10,786	12,170	+12.8%	+1.3%
2	Colombiana	--	8,474	--	-5.2%
3	Apollo 18	--	7,299	--	-23.5%
4	Paradise Kiss	--	7,205	--	-23.8%
5	One Day	11,048	6,568	-40.6%	--

	Weekend adm.			Sept 22-25
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	3 Idiots	--	33,677	--
2	Paradise Kiss	--	26,466	--
3	Apollo 18	--	26,374	--
4	Colombiana	--	26,360	--

Summary

3 Idiots increases for the 3rd straight weekend and wins it too. Incredible. Paradise Kiss will go down when final grosses are reported in but strong opening. Apollo 18 did slightly below Insidious's weekend admissions but ok numbers for it. I thought Colombiana would tank after Thursday's numbers but it came through on Sunday with a better than normal drop. Lan Kwai Fong will end up at #4 this week but it will drop less than/be around 50% for the weekend which is acceptable.

September 22 Weekend Estimates

1. 3 Idiots - $170,000 (+33.0%)/$616,000
2. Apollo 18 - $155,000
3. Colombiana (i.p.) - $153,600
4. Lan Kwai Fong - $149,450 (-51.0%)/$824,450 <-- drop does not include previews
5. Paradise Kiss (i.p.) - $130,000

Tough weekend to estimate since there are multiple movies that had special screenings and BOM/Variety's Lan Kwai Fong number from last weekend includes sneaks numbers. 3 Idiots should be #1 and Paradise Kiss should come in at #5. The rest will come down to actuals.

Other estimates:

Zookeeper - $52,000
The Help - $30,000

Next weekend is a holiday weekend so I expect a total weekend gross above 3m, maybe 4m if a couple movies break out. Johnny English Reborn, Abduction, Spy Kids 4D, Shark Night 3D, 1911 and The Sorcerer and the White Snake are all getting a wide release. Top 5 could be all new openers.