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Hong Kong: September 15 Predictions
Rank Name Prediction % Change
1  Mayday 3DNA $330,000  
2  Lan Kwai Fong $310,000 (i.p.)  
3  Contagion $152,880 -61%
4  One Day $135,000 -55%
5  Insidious $125,000 (i.p.)  

Note: i.p. means including previews.

  (from The Sun Daily) Mayday 3DNA, the first concert film from the Taiwanese rock band, is looking to start a new #1 streak for 3D films using a new approach. While most films go for action or use animation as their genre, this kind of concert/drama film is new to 3D. Footage from the band in concert intertwined between 3 fictional stories will make up the storyline of the film. Besides Mayday, moviegoers will also see Richie Ren and other celebrities playing the acting roles. Scheduling has this in either the biggest theater or in the 2nd largest but only about half of the theaters are showing this. That will have an effect on Mayday 3DNA's potential gross but strong pre-selling at every location right now is counteracting the idea of a possibly low gross. While Mayday 3DNA had 2 weeks of advanced pre-selling, the strong sales is leading me to think this will do more than Lan Kwai Fong even though Lan Kwai Fong is getting an ultra wide release and this is playing in only 15-20 theaters. Combine that with the 3D prices for Mayday and weak pre-selling for Lan Kwai Fong and this has more than a fair chance at #1 this week. A $330,000 start is more than a $10,000 PSA which should be achievable with the high ticket prices and limited theaters.

Lan Kwai Fong is a Hong Kong romance drama that is bound to bring the couples in. Setting in Hong Kong's most famous entertainment district, Lan Kwai Fong, this will surely rope in those who are a fan of these movies. Pre-selling has been very weak even though this has been put in the biggest theaters at almost all locations. It has also been given an ultra wide release which means it will remain competitive with Mayday for top spot. Interestingly enough, this will not be showing in the Central theater where Lan Kwai Fong is located. #1 is not impossible but without 3D prices like Mayday and weak pre-selling, I cannot see this doing much. Also, some audience demand has been met with advanced screenings before and on the holiday Tuesday. With those factored in, Lan Kwai Fong may actually win the weekend but a lot will depend on how much it makes with the theaters in the more high traffic, entertainment districts like Mong Kok, Tsim Sha Tsui and Causeway Bay. It has already made about $30,000 on Monday alone and with other earnings from previous advanced screenings + Tuesday numbers, advanced screenings could make up about 1/3 of its opening weekend gross. Including previews, a start above $200,000 is guaranteed and though pre-selling is weak right now, sales will pick up this weekend. $310,000 for its opening weekend, including previews, would be quite a good start.

Last week's winner, Contagion will slip from its perch and could suffer a big blow in its 2nd weekend. Weak pre-selling has this behind One Day at the moment and with mixed word-of-mouth, it might end its run a little shorter here than expected. The good news is that it will retain all of its theaters and will still be given full day showtimes at most locations. The Tuesday holiday was good news for Contagion as it is now assured of passing Cowboys & Aliens even with a very poor hold its second weekend. While One Day overtook Contagion on Monday in admissions, the lead has not been by much. -61% would put it at about $153,000 for the weekend and a total above $750,000.

Meanwhile, One Day is holding on to last weekend's hot pre-selling and is doing ok pre-sales in its 2nd weekend. Unfortunately, the new openers have caused its showtimes to get cut in half in some places and mixed WOM will not help matters. It did overtake Contagion with Monday's admissions so it looks like this will have a better hold than the other even though its showtimes are the ones being slashed. Still, it's not holding up that well either and these fast pre-sales don't always translate to strong final admissions. One Day has been averaging just below a 3 multiplier on the weekdays so far this week but these numbers are holiday fueled so they don't really represent a possible multiplier for Thursday/Friday. A 55% drop translates to $135,000 for the weekend and a total near $630,000.

Insidious makes its debut in Hong Kong after being pushed back from its August 25 summer weekend. Like Lan Kwai Fong, this also had previews but most of those were at 10 PM or midnight shows. This is getting an ultra wide release but showtimes are spaced out with almost all giving this nighttime shows. General reaction seems OK but nothing to jump up and down about. Pre-selling looks very lethargic but that might be due to all the advanced screenings burning out its demand. With previews included, this should begin with over $100,000 but with the exception of Mayday 3DNA, Thursday pre-selling looks slow for pretty much every movie.

Bridesmaids enters the ring after moving from July 7. After the failure of Bad Teacher, theaters were reluctant to show another comedy in their theaters so now Bridesmaids is only playing in limited release. Showing in just 8 theaters, this will have a tough time getting any sort of momentum with some theaters not giving any showtimes in peak hours. Like the other 2 new releases this week, this also got special screenings on the holiday. A $50,000 including previews would be OK.

The last of the new openers, Pina, is a dance film showing in the 2 arthouse theaters. This has very strong pre-selling going on as this has started advanced ticketing more than a month in advance. Both of them are showing some showtimes at near sellout capacity and with this film being in 3D, this will have an exceptional PSA. A $50,000 weekend including previews translates to about a $25,000 PSA.

Overheard 2 will fall from the top 5 and off the wagon as theaters have noticed demand has been slipping and thus, showtimes have been cut. Overheard 2 might be able to slip by with a drop under 60% but it does not have any showtimes in peak hours left. The good news is that almost all theaters are still showing this in some capacity and with other new releases failing to generate any interest, this could be put back on more screens on Saturday/Sunday if they continue to fail to bring in customers. It will cross 3m sometime this weekend.

Midnight in Paris is looking to benefit from last weekend's great opening and translate it into a good drop. Pre-selling has been ok so far and all theaters are still keeping this on their schedules. This could fall 40% and move up into the $300,000 range.

After only 1 week, Love in Space has already been cut from theaters or is down to just 1 showtime per day. Weak sales last week led to the tumble this week and a big drop is expected. An 80% fall would still push it above the $200,000 mark.

Children Who Chase Lost Voices From Deep Below will get cut to varying degrees in the 3 MCL theaters showing this. A total about $40,000, maybe $50,000, after this weekend would be not bad for the Japanese anime film.

3 Idiots is already wreaking havoc amongst the Broadway and AMC theaters as continued strength has led to showtimes being kept for Thursday/Friday. A 35% drop will move it closer to $300,000.

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Total Comments: 2
Patrick Ferrara
Patrick Ferrara    Sep 13 2011 6:04pm
That's a very cool idea to combine a concert with highly narrative visuals, me likey
Jack Sparrow
Jack Sparrow    Sep 13 2011 8:18pm
May 3DNA was just in previews in Singapore but one can tell it is a big success here. The movie was successful in attracting teen crowd and given that it is well received legs could be decent.