Well, its clear with the drooping Oscar tv ratings, and the elimination of rental stores (that will happen in the next few years) the question of where the movie industry is going to go is interesting. 2003 B.O. Gross barely beat out 2002 (just .2%) and taking into consideration ticket prices, that indicates to me less tickets were actually purchased that year. 2004 did a bit better, bettering 2003 by 2.5, but still the previous year's increments had been n almost 10%. Ticket sales have been dwindeling even though more and more movies are getting released. What does that mean?

Perhaps everyone is just buying them? But I doubt it, not everyone purchases every dvd they use, and I am seeing a rise in Netflix and other ordering systems. I do forsee on-line film banks in the future, but how is the industry supposed to generate interest initself in the first relase run of theatres so that audiances at least consider buying or on-line ordering the film in its personal release?

I've always considered theatres to be a bit like "Flagship" stores. The massive warehouse stores that are in one or two cities which pretty much sample new things before they get pushed out to the rest of the market. These samples don't just include the articles of clothing, but also lifestyle promotion, advertising concepts, etc. Theatres to me prepared the way for mass consumption by creating a sense of value in themselves and what they show. With dwindling ticket purchases and a lack of investment in such things as award shows, I wonder if anyone here has numbers for rental and purchasing over the past three to five years? I feel like its all going down.

The aggressive new campaigning of t.v. shows is making people just get cable and sit at home watching tv. I put my money on the entire industry having lost money recently.

How are they going to turn themselves around?

I know some big directors such as Spielberg have started doing massive film archive projects, and returning to the film medium as distinct a narrative form (like books) so that it maintains a seperate identity from other media such as radio and television. He's trying to build an importance in film history and collection in a space were so many movies are ephemral. They get pused into theatres and quickly forgotten to make way for the next one. That's why opening weekends are becoming such a big deal.

But its a bad tactic. By catering to short attention span, and trying to cater to the lowest common denominator they're shooting themselves in the foot.

Actually, box office receipts are going down because of the DVD boom and lack of innovations. If you go back to the 20's or the 60's, in the 1920's, movie attendance was declining because of Radio, so that why sound was invented. In the 1950's - 60's, attendance was at an all time low because of television. So they invented stuff like 3D, Smell O Vision, but that didn't help. Then they realized what they can do for movies what you can't do for TV, no censorship. So that made movies with excessive violence, profanity, and sex. The Godfather began this trend, so now people realize that you can more from Movies than what you can't get from Television. Then after that, then came the VCR, but theaters now came up with a new innovation after the VHS boom, surround sound. But now with DVD's, Home theater systems, and uncensored TV shows, there is really nothing left for movie theaters to invent to bring them inside, unless they come up another invention. How about every time you come to the theater, you get a free hooker to take home with you. Okay, maybe that is far fetched, but it might work for the boys.

Jim Cameron has talked about this and he feels that 3D is the next evolution of cinema.

Has there been a rise in Omnimax and IMax film ticket sales?

I actually agree with him something has to change. Scott, if people can't generate enough enthusiasm to see movies in the first place, I think in the long-run it'll even drag down dvd sales. The lack of innovation is a huge deal. They started with the digital so that the big screen experience would still hold value, and now everyone just has big tvs. Then they tried to create value in awards mostly to mainatain an air of "high art" form, and "filmmaking" rather than just "movies." They need to explore new ways of building investment in the film system.

They do, that why their are so many books written around films, certain directors, etc. By having alot of literature on something, it adds gravity to it. I think Spielberg is exploring this archive thing as way to address film heritage as something unique and a springboard in which to build "long-term" investemnt. If its just about how to make it more flashy at every minute, the 3d could be the Britney Spears of the film world. Shoot itself in the foot. What does that experience add to dramas, comedies and any other non-action based movie? Does all the innovation have to do with the physicality of the screen, or are there other ways to keep the numbers turning up?

The hooker thing reminds me of True Romance btw.

Innovations such as 3D like loyal mentioned would be a step in the right direction.

Owing to the cyclical nature of things, people will get tired of bullshit programming on TV and go back to the movies either at the theaters or DVDs. The mass production of LCD tvs will be a boom since they are really geared towards watching movies than some sitcom.

Good quality, variety and new innovations are the key.

I don't know, because then you're going to have to deal with technology obsolecense. If they make prints 3d how do they re-show old ones? If every advance is purely technological than its not going to push the whole field into a higher place of esteem. Its like computer technology today, where if everything is just about tech advance, the turnover of information and information forms is quick. I think the avergae lifespan of most technology is ten years if even right now, and websites, its about 1/2 a year. It just seems to me like there is also 90-100 years of film history that would get lost in there. And then what happens if they push tv's to be able to view 3d also, and the film industry scrambles then to make some further visual advance. Its not just the visual, and I'm not being classicist and saying we should wax nostalgic on story line like Dogme 95, I'm just wondering how the fall in film grosses will eventually affect the full consumption of film-related material (like home dvd, on-line rental, etc). It still seems to me that unless films hold a grasp on the granduer of theater release the whole market will suffer. You can't beat television by acting like it. Maybe they should drop ticket prices and take a bit of a suffer now in order to maintain mass consumtption in the field for the next few years?

I think what's needed is a true leap in the medium, like the 3D system Cameron and friends are working on.

If you look at how cinema has evolved, from silent to talkies to color, there hasn't been a major leap since the 80's and that had to do with the advent of more complex sound systems (and to a degree digital sound in the 90's).

I think that the first few major 3D films will be "gimmicky" but the goal is to eventually create a seamless experience. Imagine watching Saving Private Ryan in 3D? Or Moulin Rouge?

the movie industry is doing quite well right now actually.

While there wont be a huge decline in cinema yet.
2003 or 2003, i forget gave us the biggest ticket sales in a very long time. Its only descreased at a small rate since then (and remember, 2004 saw huge receipts from shrek 2 aand increadibles, movies targetted at kids that have lower ticket prices, hence the number of tickets sold is actually more. This is something never taken into account.

3D will be the next step but I do feel that soon, stuff like renting movies will take place more and more via the web. Hell, i see stuff like netflix going down too soon. Faster broadband connections and what not, i do htink the possibility exists in about 4 t o5 years to see dvd quality movies just being downloaded (hell, people are doing it now!)

then again, theres the whole blu-ray vs hd_dvd fight taking place so i may be completely wrong on that one.

Yeah, I see all ordering being done via internet movie banks with a direct stream to the nice hige tv's everyone will have. That's why I think theatres have to return to the actual theatre going experience rather than just the movies themselves. Like Opera (I know) or Broadway Shows (I know) were you could own an entire opera on cd or dvd, but its "not the same" as going to see it. Conversely, maintaining the granduer of the actual performances is what keeps people coming back, or buying the cds, etc. I think theatres need to jack down the associated prices. Maybe have $20/All Day special, were someone can buy an entry ticket and just hang out all day seeing what they want. Its a good deal, because rarely do people really sit through more than 2 movies (so you'd get 10 per movie) but for the die hard enthusiast that sits through four, GREAT! It keeps the theatres full, it keeps the fanbois and fangrrls feeding the industry, on bad weather days entire families will each pay 20 per person, hang out in the theatre, get hungry and end up buying stuff from the theatre, etc. I don't know, they have to make the actual physical space of the theatre unique and desireable.

The problem with 3d is how it will relate to renting (via internet or what other form) because no one will be interested in renting (which is a bulk of the money) if they know they won't get the experience (3d) that they did in the theatre, but no one will go to the theatres (again) if they can get the same effect. Thats why there were always arguements between wide-screen and full-screen, etc.

You've now sort of answered your own main question.

That's why there is such interest in 3D by the studios. It can give audience members something they can't get at home. I have a 65 inch widescreen HD monitor, a 1080i HD upconvert DVD player, and a 8 speaker DTS surround system. More often than not, the presentation I have at home on dvd is MUCH better than what I get in theaters. I'm sure I'm not alone and in some cases, I'm on the low end of the spectrum.

Point being, the theaters need to offer something that isn't available at home. Each Xmas, these widescreen plasma and lcd monitors are dropping 25-40%. Time is running out for studios.