You know how it goes. We've been analyzing each state in the ECW thread for ages, and everyone has their theories as to which states will swing in which direction. What's the final state breakdown going to be for McCain vs. Obama (you don't need to include EC count unless you want to, this is more to see which states people believe will jump ship).

Take it away...

Obama:
Maine (4)
New Hampshire (4)
Vermont (3)
Mass. (12)
Rhode Island (4)
Conn. (7)
New York (31)
New Jersey (15)
Deleware (3)
Maryland (10)
Washington DC (3)
Pennsylvania (21)
Michigan (17)
Wisconsin (10)
Illinois (21)
Minn. (10)
Iowa (7)
Missouri (11)
Colorado (9)
New Mexico (5)
Washington (11)
Oregon (7)
California (55)
Hawaii (4)

Total: 284
If Nevada swings to: 289

McCain:
Ohio (20)
West Virgina (5)
Virginia (13)
Indiana (11)
Kentucky (8)
Tenn. (11)
North C. (15)
South C. (8)
Georgia (15)
Alabama (9)
Miss. (6)
Florida (27)
Arkansas (6)
Louisiana (9)
Texas (34)
Oklahoma (7)
Kansas (6)
Nebraska (5)
South D. (3)
North D. (3)
Wyoming (3)
Montana (3)
Idaho (4)
Utah (5)
Arizona (10)
Nevada (5)
Alaska (3)

Total: 254
If Nevada swings from: 249


I'm least secure about Nevada. Could go to Obama depending on turnout in the rest of the state. He's got Vegas tied up, its areas like Reno that I am not sure what the population growth has been in the last 8 years.

Ohio: Obama
Penn: Obama
South Carolina: McCain
Indiana: McCain
Iowa: Obama
Missouri: McCain
Nevada: Obama
Colorado: Obama



Election over

Woah. Obama wins Ohio twice. That's gotta rack up the EC right there!

I think McCain can sneek out Ohio.

It all depends.


Flordia is going democrat imo, the Hispanics are coming out big time.

My prediction:

Obama
Washing DC +70
Hawaii +45
New York +30
Delaware +30
California +26
Rhode Island +28
Connecticut +25
Illinois +25
Vermont +25
Maryland +24
Massachusetts +20
New Jersey +17
Iowa +15
Oregon +15
Washington +15
Michigan +14
Maine +13
New Mexico +11
Wisconsin +11
Colorado +8
Minnesota +8
New Hampshire +8
Pennsylvania +7
Nevada +6
Virginia +5
Flordia +3
Ohio +3
Indiana +1
North Carolina +1
Missouri +1

McCain
Montana +2
North Dakota +2
Arizona +5
Georgia +5
West Virginia +8
Arkansas +10
South Carolina +10
South Dakota +10
Texas +11
Louisiana +13
Mississippi +13
Kentucky +15
Tennessee +15
Alaska +16
Kansas +20
Nebraska +20
Alabama +25
Idaho +25
Wyoming +26
Utah +28
Oklahoma +30

Obama is cool and everything but the current environment does not allow for gigantic victories as in the past.

This is what I am hoping for tomorrow. I also think one of the South East states will surprise.

Obama:
Arizona
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Deleware
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kentucky
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska (1)
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
Washington DC
West Virgina
Wisconsin

McCain:
Alabama
Alaska
Arkansas
Idaho
Kansas
Louisiana
Nebraska (4)
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Wyoming


The italicized ones are the states I think will be the closest, for either winner. Some of the Obama ones could flip to McCain and vice versa.

McCain is at such a point, if he gets over 200 electoral votes, it will be seen as an upset for Obama...

lol


I canot see why any of you think Obama can increase 5-10% from polls. Obama always does what the polls say or worse, not better.


There has been a tightening of the polls somewhat and thus Obama should win 310-350 but not more. Come on Obama winning Kentucky and if you look at the polls in WV, they had Obama close but now they have McCain by over 8.

you people should edit in the EC counts for yr lists, because i wanna see what these scenarios would translate to where it matters but i am, yknow, quite lazy. :O

Obama:
Maine
New Hampshire
Vermont
Mass.
Rhode Island
Conn.
New York
New Jersey
Deleware
Maryland
Washington DC
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Wisconsin
Illinois
Minn.
Iowa
Missouri
Colorado
New Mexico
Washington
Oregon
California
Hawaii
Arizona
Virginia
North C.
Ohio
Nevada
Montana
Florida
Louisiana


McCain:
West Virgina - 5
Indiana - 11
Wyoming - 3
Kentucky - 8
Tenn. - 11
South C. - 8
Georgia - 15
Alabama - 9
Miss. - 6
Arkansas - 6
Texas - 34
Oklahoma - 7
Kansas - 6
Nebraska - 5
South D. - 3
North D. - 3
Idaho - 4
Utah - 5
Alaska - 3

152 McCain.

If I tallied it up wrong, let me know.

Obama cannot win Louisiana...


It has become a republican state as the State has fewer African Americans.


Obama:
Maine- 4
New Hampshire-4
Vermont- 3
Mass. - 12
Rhode Island -4
Conn. -7
New York -31
New Jersey -15
Deleware -3
Maryland -10
Washington DC -3
Pennsylvania -21
Michigan -17
Wisconsin -10
Illinois -21
Minn. -10
Iowa -7
Colorado -9
New Mexico -5
Washington -11
Oregon -7
California -55
Hawaii -4
Virginia -13
Ohio -20
Nevada -5
Florida -27

338 Obama


McCain:
Montana -3
Louisiana -9
North C. -15
Arizona -10
Missouri -11
West Virgina - 5
Indiana - 11
Wyoming - 3
Kentucky - 8
Tenn. - 11
South C. - 8
Georgia - 15
Alabama - 9
Miss. - 6
Arkansas - 6
Texas - 34
Oklahoma - 7
Kansas - 6
Nebraska - 5
South D. - 3
North D. - 3
Idaho - 4
Utah - 5
Alaska - 3

200 McCain

UTAH?!!!

Yeah I was gonna say, pigs would legitimately fly before Utah voted Democrat.

I'm still really hesitant about giving Obama Florida, regardless of what polls say.
A) We always end up going red...even when it looks close (or sometimes even when we go blue...we thought)
B) We love to not let black people vote.
C) Hispanic? Yes. But mostly Cubans. Cubans vote red.
D) We're pretty damn racist (the Northern half of Florida is basically the South, and many first or second generation hispanics still maintain pretty adamant cultural racism)...Bradley Effect could totally come into play

...not that it really matters.

I was watching a CNN report (I think, it may have been MSNBC) saying that Cubans account for only 35% of the hispanic vote this year, compared to 60% in 2004. And that young Cubans are lean more Dem than their parents, a reliable GOP voting bloc.

So there's some hope there.

Pundits predictions:

Karl Rove
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 338 McCain 200

Matthew Dowd
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 338 McCain 200
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 250 Democrats 185 Republicans

George Will
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 378 McCain 160
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 254 Democrats 181 Republicans

Donna Brazile
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 343
Senate Seats: 59 Democrats 39 Republicans
House Seats: 262 Democrats 173 Republicans

George Stephanopoulos
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 353 McCain 185
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats (59 if there's a run-off in Georgia) Republicans 40
House Seats: Democrats 264 Republicans 171

Mark Halperin
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 349 McCain 189
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans
House Seats: 261 Democrats 174 Republicans

Here's more:

Chris Matthews
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 338 McCain 200
Senate Seats: 56 Democrats 42 Republicans
House Seats: 264 Democrats 171 Republicans

Nate Silver
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 347 McCain 191
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 258 Democrats 177 Republicans

Chris Cillizza
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: 312 McCain 226
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 266 Democrats 169 Republicans

Arianna Huffington
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 318 McCain 220
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans
House Seats: 254 Democrats 181 Republicans

Fred Barnes
Winner: McCain
Electoral College: Obama 252 McCain 286
Senate Seats: 55 Democrats 43 Republicans
House Seats: 255 Democrats 180 Republicans

Eleanor Clift
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 349 McCain 189
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans
House Seats: 265 Democrats 170 Republicans

Markos Moulitas
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 390 McCain 148
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans
House Seats: 268 Democrats 167 Republicans

Ed Rollins
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 353 McCain 185
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 249 Democrats 186 Republicans

Paul Begala
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 325 McCain 213
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans

James Carville
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 330 McCain 208
Senate Seats: 60 Democrats 38 Republicans

Charles Mahtesian (National Politics Editor, Politico.com)
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 311 McCain 227
Senate Seats: 56 Democrats 42 Republicans
House Seats: 256 Democrats 179 Republicans

Morton Kondracke
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 379 McCain 159
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 269 Democrats 166 Republicans

David Plotz (Editor, Slate)
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 336 McCain 202
Senate Seats: 59 Democrats 39 Republicans
House Seats: 257 Democrats 178 Republicans

Alex Castellanos (Republican media consultant)
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 318 McCain 220
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 42 Republicans

Dan Gerstein (Democratic media consultant, former manager of Sen. Joe Lieberman's re-election campaign)
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 318 McCain 220
Senate Seats: 55 Democrats 43 Republicans
House Seats: 260 Democrats 175 Republicans

Tom Doherty (New York Republican consultant)
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 331 McCain 207
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 42 Republicans
House Seats: 255 Democrats 180 Republicans

Robert Y. Shapiro (Columbia University political scientist)
Winner: Obama
Popular Vote: Obama 53 McCain 47
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans
House Seats: 259 Democrats 176 Republicans

Gary Jacobson: (University of California-San Diego political scientist)
Winner: Obama
Major Party Vote: 52.7 Obama 47.3 McCain
Senate: 57 Democrats 43 Republicans
House: 264 Democrats 171 Republican

Sandy Maisel: (Colby College political scientist)
Winner: Obama
Electoral College 353 Obama 185 McCain
Senate Seats 59 Democrats 41 Republicans
House 265 Democrats 170 Republicans

Robert Erickson (Columbia University political scientist)
Winner: Obama
Popular Vote: Obama 52.5 McCain 47.5
Senate Seats: 59 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 253 Democrats 182 Republicans

Alan Abramowitz (Emory University political scientist)
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 361 McCain 177
Senate Seats: 59 Democrats 40 Republicans (with a run-off in Georgia)
House Seats: 256 Democrats 179 Republicans

I guess he has the right math this year, eh.

Where's Sean Hannity?

Wow. I'm apparently low-balling it with my 284-289 guess. Obama might be making serious advances in some states that used to lean over 15% above Red. But he could earn back 14% of that and it would still mean McCain picks up all the EC numbers. I expect the EC not to reflect accurately the popular vote. Gore might have won by a couple thousand, but I see Obama leading by a few million and the EC still being comparatively close. It will reflect enthusiasm on the State official level, though.

Funny thing is, based on my predictions I would be more than happy. The way I see it, this isn't Georgia voting for the home team like Carter, where it would flip right back afterwards. Consolidating Iowa/Colorado/New Mexico/Missouri would gaurantee the Dems future strong numbers. Especially the southwest. On any other given election I would have put Nevada there definitely, and Arizona there potentially (except for home-team advantage this time around). That would pretty much be the entire southwest-the fastest growing region in the US and a sure-fire bigger player in upcoming elections.

So, yeah, the short of it is that a 289 with those specific swing states going blue would be a great promise of things to come even when its less about the man and more about the plan.

i'm waiting for Rush's predictions

Here, look at this map from pollster.com:



In order to McCain to win, he has to hold all the leaning Republican states, win every single toss up state (yellow), PLUS take away some of the leaning Democratic states. Not gonna happen.

Are you saying that Fred Barnes is wrong?!

OBAMA 311 MCCAIN 227



It appears that I may be a little conservative as well, but this is how I see it playing out. I think that Obama gets CO based on what my friends have told me from there as well as the effort that has been put forth to register the latinos there. He also gets VA which has had changing demographics and more influence from the D.C. area. He gets OH from reports of the lead that he has there as well as many friends (lived there ~2 years) that tell me about voting, etc... As for the other states that I didn't list, I think there may be some other factors that may sway the vote in favor of McCain. I would be happily surprised if he gets more, but that's what I think.