this makes me hate Al Gore even more.

10/18

TOWARD MCCAIN:
ND: Barely Dem to Exactly Tied
MS: Weak GOP to Strong GOP



It should be noted that Obama has increased his lead in CO, which is a key swing state this election. And not that it matters, but Obama has opened a huge lead in CA, more than 20%.

10/19

TOWARD OBAMA
ME: Weak Dem to Strong Dem
MN: Weak Dem to Strong Dem
NC: Exactly Tied to Barely Dem



OBAMA - 364 MCCAIN - 171 Exactly Tied - 3

NC hasn't voted Democrat since Jimmy Carter.

Wow. With today's update, Obama now has 264 electoral points from "Strong Dem" states. In other words, 264 electoral votes all from states where he leads by 10% or more! That is the highest I have seen the "Strong Dem" category for Obama.

Peace,
Mike

Well all of Kerry's states are now dark blue. I don't see how McCain can take one of those. Iowa is now a loss for him. All Obama needs to do is take one more state and he has it.

That is a beautiful beautiful blue map.

I obviously didn't pay attention to my misshap in formatting ... o well.

So Obama only needs to win one of the following: CO, VA, NC, FL, OH, MO, NV or ND. Somehow I don't see him losing all of those. Of course I don't really see him winning OH, FL or NC, but I could be proven wrong.

I'd say Obama is a 3:1 favorite in VA and CO.

10/20

TOWARD OBAMA
MT: Weak GOP to Barely GOP



We aren't going to see much change from this map. Only 12 states don't fall into the Strong category. For me MT is almost like GA. I think Obama is making some headway there, but in no way do I think that it will actually go for Obama in the election.

Well Indiana could change but that would only happen in a landslide.

SurveyUSA is showing Obama with a 6 points lead in VA, and Rasmussen follows up with a 10 points margin. VA is moving into dark blue soon. I'm thinking the backlash against the "real Virginia" comment is showing.

Joe McCain can go fall off a cliff and die. Hah. Seriously. I'm a communist because I live in northern VA and am an Obama supporter. Dickhead. I don't care if it was a "joke," that's such an irritating thing to say.

What's funny is how they ridiculed John Edwards's "Two Americas" speech. Now they're basing their whole campaign on it.

Some people say there are only communists and capitalists in the world.

10/21

TOWARD MCCAIN
NH: Strong Dem to Weak Dem



I know McCain has been pushing hard in NH where he is somewhat popular. I think it might be close, but I doubt it will go to McCain. Also, McCain is concentrating in PA and the latest PA poll shows him down 12%. How is he going to make that up in 2 weeks?

what site are you using floydboy?
according to RCP well their map looks different

Funny?

Sad or pathetic, maybe. He completely destroyed his reputation this year.

And to think: "flip flopping" was the theme of the '04 election.

The site we're using is electoral-vote.com

I think that site is electoral-vote.com which uses the latest polls. RCP combines the polls to come up with their number.

I have always liked electoral-vote.com. If you read his FAQ he's very honest and runs the site with his own $$. He also has access to polls that others don't have access to.

First of all, he only uses neutral pollsters. Pollsters whose primary business is helping Democrats or Republicans get elected are not used. The algorithm he uses is the averaged three days' worth of polls using only the nonpartisan pollsters.

Also, he states that all states marked "barely" are statistical ties though the polls may lean one way (it has to do with the margin of error for the polls). When you take that into consideration, the map at RCP is exactly the same as the map at electoral-vote except for MT (which is 1.8% closer according to electoral-vote) and NM (which is 1.6% farther apart). The rest is essentially the same.

Also, if you look underneath the RCP map, the % leaders in each state are also the same, except instead of calling the state "barely" in favor that candidate the site says that they are toss-ups. Thus, really there is hardly any difference between RCP and electoral-vote. I hope that all made sense.

RCP picks and chooses polls to their own bias; 538 had a good article on that.

pollster, 538, and electoral-vote are pretty much the only sites on polling I'm visiting now.

STOP THE PRESSES!! TROUBLING NEWS FOR OBAMA!!

Apparently, National Review has finally found a poll that shows Obama only up by 2 points, and they are beating it like a drum.

It's the Nickelodeon online kids poll! I shit you not.

And I quote: "The Nickelodeon Kids' Poll is one of those polls that is always interesting to keep an eye on. "

It is? It's been wildly inaccurate every election since 1992.

But notes one NRO reader, dutifully posted in the same article: "The Obama people should be very concerned with this."

Beating it like a drum? That section of the site is hardly passed upon.

national polls mean nothing anymore. They will inevitably tighten as the day gets closer whether mccain really does well or not, it just happens. All that matters are the swing state polls, and Obama continues to do very well.

Lets look at the states Obama has LOCKED UP:
-Illinois
-New York
-California
-Washington
-Oregon
-Hawaii
-Minnesota
-Wisconsin
-Michigan
-New Jeysey
-New England except New Hampshire
-Delaware
-DC
-Maryland

That right there is 229.

All Obama has to do is win Pennsylvania and Virginia; places he holds big leads in (+11%, +8%, many polls have him over 50%) and the race is essentially his. They are "swing" states, so I wont call them locks, BUT should he win 263.

Now, say Obama win any one of:
-Ohio
-Missouri
-Florida
-North Carolina

And he has broken 270.

And, shockingly, he leads IN every one of those states. But he only needs one.

Lets say McCain wins all of them. Obama still has outs.

Winning any 2 out of these 5: New Hampshire, North Dakota, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada: assures Obama a win or a 269-269 tie where it would go the court, where I believe the Dermocrats have more votes.

It is not over, but if I had to use a sports analogy, its the top of the ninth with Obama's team on the mound with a lead, and if it goes wrong, he has 3 all stars and a cy young winner waiting in the bullpen.

McCain technically CAN comeback, but how realistic is it that he will?

Btw...flip flopping is no doubt the stupidest political insult around...yeah, I want a President who WONT change his mind!

Stubburn never work out, see Bush sticking by Iraq just for the sake of sticking by it and flip flopping, even with endless proof its a failure and should end.