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 When the Republicans come back from the wilderness... 
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Post When the Republicans come back from the wilderness...
...what will they look like?

I know the election's not over, but if current trends hold, Reps are looking at a pretty solid drubbing in November. They could even be facing a 60-Dem Senate.

There will, one hopes, be some serious soul searching over the next 2 years about the direction of the party. There are a couple of schools of thought on what that regrouping will look like.

a) There are some who want more Bible-thumping, more woo-woo, more Creationism and anti-science, more gay-bashing. In short, more Sarah Palin.

b) There are others who want the party to get back to its (mythical) roots of smaller government, less spending, more states rights, etc. In short, more Ron Paul.

Obviously I hope for the latter, although I have my doubts that they ever existed (beyond Ron Paul). I fear the former.

Either way, I don't think there's any question that they WILL come back, and sooner rather than later if Dems overreach like they did in 1994.

Any thoughts?


Wed Oct 08, 2008 10:09 pm
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Post Re: When the Republicans come back from the wilderness...
I think they will come back primarily as balance the budget fiscal conservatives and that will be good for a while. Even though he annoys me, I expect them to come back in 2 to 4 years sort of like Joe Scarborough types. And then as the years go by they'll get more and more power, get more religion, take over everything and break capitalism again.


Wed Oct 08, 2008 10:22 pm
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Post Re: When the Republicans come back from the wilderness...
hopefully the later. The former is not the party i want to be associated with


Thu Oct 09, 2008 12:08 am
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Post Re: When the Republicans come back from the wilderness...
Are there any studies or trends that show one party winning out with the younger generation overall?

I'd assume it would be the Dems but re-electing W really makes me rethink that.

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Thu Oct 09, 2008 1:24 am
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Post Re: When the Republicans come back from the wilderness...
I certainly hope it's the latter. Even though I disagree with some of his political stances and economic beliefs, I have deep respect for Ron Paul. He does however have some ideas and stances that I would greatly favor (eg eliminate, or at least scale back, the War on Drugs).

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Post Re: When the Republicans come back from the wilderness...
Raffiki wrote:
Are there any studies or trends that show one party winning out with the younger generation overall?

I'd assume it would be the Dems but re-electing W really makes me rethink that.


my generation (college) tends to trend democrat. It's been like that for about 20 years


Thu Oct 09, 2008 10:01 am
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Post Re: When the Republicans come back from the wilderness...
Kevin Drum thinks it will be the former:

If McCain loses, as he's almost certain to, we're going to see two reactions. First, Steve Schmidt wasn't nasty enough. In the future, Republicans need to return to their Lee Atwater roots and really teach Americans what liberal treachery is all about. Second, we told you a RINO couldn't win. The conservative base will be convinced for years that the big problem with McCain was that he was trying to be a pale shadow of liberal Democrats. (Sarah Palin will be conveniently forgotten, or else finally seen for the tokenism she really is.) The nation still hungers for genuine conservatism, they'll say, and they knew McCain was a phony all along. If only the party had nominated a Romney or a Huckabee the public would have swarmed to their cause.

This is delusional, but it's probably good news for Democrats. It means the GOP is going to be riven by factional warfare for years, with moderates unable to get a purchase on the party apparatus because of the McCain albatross hanging around their necks. Eventually, like Britain's Labor Party in the 80s, they'll find their Tony Blair, but in the meantime they're likely to double down on the most strident possible social conservatism, convinced that the heartland will respond if only they regain the true faith. Ronald Reagan, who was more pragmatic about these things than any of them ever give him credit for, will be rolling in his grave. And Democrats, at least for a while, will go from strength to strength.


Thu Oct 09, 2008 2:03 pm
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Post Re: When the Republicans come back from the wilderness...
Andrew Sullivan offers another theory for why the GOP will come back more Christianist than conservative.

The reason the economy is playing differently among Southern Baptists may surely be that many are voting primarily on religious, cultural and theological grounds.

The economy is irrelevant compared with religious identity. What this campaign may be doing is stripping most secular Republicans and independents from the GOP coalition. We could be left with a purely sectarian-Christianist rump, which will control the GOP for a generation. And McCain will have distilled Rove's religious coalition in eight weeks more effectively than Bush in eight years!

What we may be seeing is all the dangerous trends I identified in "The Conservative Soul: Fundamentalism, Freedom and the Future Of The Right" being brought to faster and more potent fruition by the combination of an economic crisis, a black Democratic candidate and a far-right Christianist unknown like Palin. It is as if the McCain-Palin campaign is acting as a purgative of moderate or centrist Republicanism in this atmosphere. What this could portend is that the GOP could become reduced to a George Wallace rump - even more than it now is. And from that scorched piece of earth, it will be much harder to recover in the short or medium run.

How ironic that Bush and Rove would truly find their reductio ad absurdum in the wreckage of John McCain's "honor." But how fitting in a way. Even McCain drowns in the wave of bigotry and fear these people unleashed for their own short-term advantage. Even McCain.


Thu Oct 09, 2008 2:47 pm
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Post Re: When the Republicans come back from the wilderness...
Not that it would happen, but if Obama and Clinton were able to secure the White House as Democrat for the next 16 years, I'd say the Republican party as we know it today would probably never regain its hold.

The only problem is that Hillary should have gone first because in 8 years, I don't think she'd fare too well (physically).

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Thu Oct 09, 2008 6:55 pm
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Post Re: When the Republicans come back from the wilderness...
Hillary's chance at the white house is done as soon as Obama wins the election.

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Post Re: When the Republicans come back from the wilderness...
Raffiki wrote:
Are there any studies or trends that show one party winning out with the younger generation overall?

I'd assume it would be the Dems but re-electing W really makes me rethink that.


The most amazing political chart I ever saw talked about this.. They found like an 80% correlation based on who was leading the country when an individual was around 12 years of age..
So it's not young/old, it's who was in power in your early 'formative years'.. and then we tend to vote the same way..
For me it's Eisenhower..
An amazing analysis.. We like who we grew-up with.. Nothing changes us that much.. Not age, for sure..
Cheers......

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Thu Oct 09, 2008 10:00 pm
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Post Re: When the Republicans come back from the wilderness...
Raffiki wrote:
Not that it would happen, but if Obama and Clinton were able to secure the White House as Democrat for the next 16 years, I'd say the Republican party as we know it today would probably never regain its hold.


Never say never.

Right now, in fact, I'm going ahead and assuming there will be some sort of backlash in two years to Obama not fixing Bush's mess fast enough. Some gains for Republicans in the House and Senate, but not a power shift like in 1994 or 2006.


Fri Oct 10, 2008 12:37 am
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Post Re: When the Republicans come back from the wilderness...
gardenia.11/14.... wrote:
The most amazing political chart I ever saw talked about this.. They found like an 80% correlation based on who was leading the country when an individual was around 12 years of age..


Reagan was president when I was 12. I guess I'm one of the exceptions to the correlation.


Fri Oct 10, 2008 12:38 am
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Post Re: When the Republicans come back from the wilderness...
Beeblebrox wrote:
gardenia.11/14.... wrote:
The most amazing political chart I ever saw talked about this.. They found like an 80% correlation based on who was leading the country when an individual was around 12 years of age..


Reagan was president when I was 12. I guess I'm one of the exceptions to the correlation.


I was giving a fast turn.. It was the administration from 8-12 years old.. Maybe Carter works for you..

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Fri Oct 10, 2008 12:55 am
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Post Re: When the Republicans come back from the wilderness...
Clinton at 8 and Bush at 12 for me. I'll stick with Clinton

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Fri Oct 10, 2008 1:04 am
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Post Re: When the Republicans come back from the wilderness...
gardenia.11/14.... wrote:
Beeblebrox wrote:
gardenia.11/14.... wrote:
The most amazing political chart I ever saw talked about this.. They found like an 80% correlation based on who was leading the country when an individual was around 12 years of age..


Reagan was president when I was 12. I guess I'm one of the exceptions to the correlation.


I was giving a fast turn.. It was the administration from 8-12 years old.. Maybe Carter works for you..


Nope. I barely even remember Carter.


Last edited by Beeblebrox on Fri Oct 10, 2008 4:58 am, edited 1 time in total.



Fri Oct 10, 2008 1:06 am
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Post Re: When the Republicans come back from the wilderness...
I think it depends on so many factors for both parties. The most I could see the democrats holding power with the Presidency is 12 years. I think its hard for one party to control the White House for longer than that since FDR.


Fri Oct 10, 2008 3:18 am
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Post Re: When the Republicans come back from the wilderness...
My first President was Eisenhower. I remember being five years old in 1959. The television was on and I saw Khrushchev riding in a parade motorcade to The White House to meet with Ike.

I remember the 1960 campaign. I saw Nixon on television one day. He wasn't seen too often during the Eisenhower Administration.I asked my brother, "Isn't he the Vice-President?" My brother said "Yep". I asked "And he's running for President?" My brother said "Yep".

I said "He's a phony. He's already in The White House and he's trying to sneak back in after President Eisenhower leaves".

Later I saw John Kennedy on television. I though to myself "He's the new guy who is pointing out that Nixon is a phony".

I feel the same way about McCain, that he's trying to sneak in also, so I think preferences are based not so much on who was in office, but are more likely based on who is getting old.

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Fri Oct 10, 2008 3:44 am
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Post Re: When the Republicans come back from the wilderness...
David Brooks

Quote:
Modern conservatism began as a movement of dissident intellectuals. Richard Weaver wrote a book called, “Ideas Have Consequences.” Russell Kirk placed Edmund Burke in an American context. William F. Buckley famously said he’d rather be governed by the first 2,000 names in the Boston phone book than by the faculty of Harvard. But he didn’t believe those were the only two options. His entire life was a celebration of urbane values, sophistication and the rigorous and constant application of intellect.
Skip to next paragraph

Driven by a need to engage elite opinion, conservatives tried to build an intellectual counterestablishment with think tanks and magazines. They disdained the ideas of the liberal professoriate, but they did not disdain the idea of a cultivated mind.

Ronald Reagan was no intellectual, but he had an earnest faith in ideas and he spent decades working through them. He was rooted in the Midwest, but he also loved Hollywood. And for a time, it seemed the Republican Party would be a broad coalition — small-town values with coastal reach.

In 1976, in a close election, Gerald Ford won the entire West Coast along with northeastern states like New Jersey, Connecticut, Vermont and Maine. In 1984, Reagan won every state but Minnesota.

But over the past few decades, the Republican Party has driven away people who live in cities, in highly educated regions and on the coasts. This expulsion has had many causes. But the big one is this: Republican political tacticians decided to mobilize their coalition with a form of social class warfare. Democrats kept nominating coastal pointy-heads like Michael Dukakis so Republicans attacked coastal pointy-heads....


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/10/opinion/10brooks.html?_r=1&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink&oref=slogin


Fri Oct 10, 2008 3:23 pm
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Post Re: When the Republicans come back from the wilderness...
The important part of the piece is this:
Quote:
The political effects of this trend have been obvious. Republicans have alienated the highly educated regions — Silicon Valley, northern Virginia, the suburbs outside of New York, Philadelphia, Chicago and Raleigh-Durham. The West Coast and the Northeast are mostly gone.

The Republicans have alienated whole professions. Lawyers now donate to the Democratic Party over the Republican Party at 4-to-1 rates. With doctors, it’s 2-to-1. With tech executives, it’s 5-to-1. With investment bankers, it’s 2-to-1. It took talent for Republicans to lose the banking community.

And so, politically, the G.O.P. is squeezed at both ends. The party is losing the working class by sins of omission — because it has not developed policies to address economic anxiety. It has lost the educated class by sins of commission — by telling members of that class to go away.


This was Rove's gambit. Whip up the evangelicals and the racists in the south and win ugly, but win. The long-term fruits of that short-term tactic have ripened and the Republicans find themselves with nothing but the evangelicals and racists left to support them ---and Kidrock69x of course.

Quote:
Palin is smart, politically skilled, courageous and likable. Her convention and debate performances were impressive. But no American politician plays the class-warfare card as constantly as Palin. Nobody so relentlessly divides the world between the “normal Joe Sixpack American” and the coastal elite.


What Brooks doesn't say here but has said recently is that Palin is a "fatal cancer on the GOP." I don't often agree with Brooks, but it's interesting to see him and other conservatives casting the light of day on what the GOP has become.

Chris Buckley, son of William F, endorsed Obama. And he wrote in his column that National Review's Kathleen Parker, who considers Palin a farce, has received over 12,000 vicious e-mails for the Palin supporters. One said that her mother should have aborted her and thrown her in a dumpster. And these are the pro-lifers!


Fri Oct 10, 2008 4:12 pm
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Post Re: When the Republicans come back from the wilderness...
Well, one of my reasons for supporting Republicans is their nominal support of capitalism and torture. Now all I have is the torture part ;) .

I like that Brooks is one of the most self-critical commentators in the conservative movement. I get really sick of Sean Hannity types.


Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:37 pm
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Post Re: When the Republicans come back from the wilderness...
KidRock69x wrote:
Well, one of my reasons for supporting Republicans is their nominal support of capitalism and torture. Now all I have is the torture part ;) .


Ha! That's funny! Yes, torture is a joking matter. :funny:

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/10/ ... 21464.html

WASHINGTON -

A U.S. military officer warned Pentagon officials that an American detainee was being driven nearly insane by months of punishing isolation and sensory deprivation in a U.S. military brig, according to documents obtained by the American Civil Liberties Union and provided to The Associated Press.

While the treatment of prisoners at detention facilities at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, and in Afghanistan and Iraq have long been the subject of human rights complaints and court scrutiny, the documents shed new light on how two American citizens and a legal U.S. resident were treated in military jails inside the United States.

The Bush administration ordered the men to be held in military jails as "enemy combatants" for years of interrogations without criminal charges, which would not have been allowed in civilian jails.


:funny:

An American citizen literally being driven insane by torture you support! :hahaha:

Quote:
I like that Brooks is one of the most self-critical commentators in the conservative movement.


Is it because you can't relate to him at all?

I just wonder where these self-critical commentators have been the past 8 years, during the torture, human rights abuses, and Republican borrow-and-spending spree. And Brooks himself played a helping hand in alienating the intellectual elite. I'm glad they're finally crawling out of the woodwork, but it would have been more convincing if they hadn't waited until the waning months of Bush's administration to wipe their hands of him.


Sat Oct 11, 2008 3:11 pm
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Post Re: When the Republicans come back from the wilderness...
Beeblebrox wrote:
I just wonder where these self-critical commentators have been the past 8 years, during the torture, human rights abuses, and Republican borrow-and-spending spree. And Brooks himself played a helping hand in alienating the intellectual elite. I'm glad they're finally crawling out of the woodwork, but it would have been more convincing if they hadn't waited until the waning months of Bush's administration to wipe their hands of him.

To be fair, George Will has been George Will over the last eight years.

David Brooks, on the other hand, has embraced his position as the big-name right-wing commentator on the New York Times. I don't think he had any choice but to support the Bush philosophy...the Times needs to fight off the notion of being "too liberal

He did make a case for gay marriage a few years ago. He's no Jonah Goldberg or Robert Novak, at least.


Sat Oct 11, 2008 10:25 pm
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Post Re: When the Republicans come back from the wilderness...
da torri wrote:
David Brooks, on the other hand, has embraced his position as the big-name right-wing commentator on the New York Times. I don't think he had any choice but to support the Bush philosophy...the Times needs to fight off the notion of being "too liberal

He did make a case for gay marriage a few years ago. He's no Jonah Goldberg or Robert Novak, at least.


David Brooks has embraced, supported, and regurgitated the very kind of alienating rhetoric towards the intellectual and educated class that he's now complaining about. Brooks was the NY Times self-appointed defender of Joe-six-pack from the liberal latte-drinking elite.

Sure, he's no Jonah Goldberg. But that's a standard so low that you need a shovel to get to it.


Sun Oct 12, 2008 12:52 am
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Post Re: When the Republicans come back from the wilderness...
Five lessons for Republicans to take from the Tories if they wish.

http://www.culture11.com/node/32875?page_view=1

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