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 WHY is it still so close? 
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Post WHY is it still so close?
Why?

Its a question that needs to be asked.
Kerry and Gore had massive leads by this time.

Is Obama trying to peak latter or is McCain been successful in fighting back against the Rockstar President.

Of course the big difference from 1960 is that Kennedy came from the back but here it has just closed up and has stayed close for a while.

Who is going to prevent Obama from winning?

I think unless Obama has a 5% lead he will lose and I think his Rockstar image is not winning over a lot of Hilary's blue collar voters.

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Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:33 am
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Post Re: WHY is it still so close?
Mannyisthebest wrote:
Why?

Its a question that needs to be asked.
Kerry and Gore had massive leads by this time.

McCain is going to win in November, that's why...

(No matter how many kiddies wish the tooth fairy/Obama was real, it don't make it so.)


Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:37 am
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Post Re: WHY is it still so close?
Bradley Witherberry wrote:
Mannyisthebest wrote:
Why?

Its a question that needs to be asked.
Kerry and Gore had massive leads by this time.

McCain is going to win in November, that's why...

(No matter how many kiddies wish the tooth fairy/Obama was real, it don't make it so.)


I wonder if Americans will move to Canada if McCain wins... Well they'd probably move out once Dion wins.


Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:42 am
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Post Re: WHY is it still so close?
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McCain is going to win in November, that's why...



Well most of you guys sit on the coast and know little about the land in the middle which is alien to Democrats.


Quote:
Well they'd probably move out once Dion wins.


No way Dion wins, The Conservative in Canada will win but they will never win a majority no matter how hard they try and how hard they lie.


I find it weird that I despise the Conservative party in Canada, but I respect John McCain is way more conservative.

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Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:44 am
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Post Re: WHY is it still so close?
Mannyisthebest wrote:
Quote:
McCain is going to win in November, that's why...



Well most of you guys sit on the coast and know little about the land in the middle which is alien to Democrats.


Quote:
Well they'd probably move out once Dion wins.


No way Dion wins, The Conservative in Canada will win but they will never win a majority no matter how hard they try and how hard they lie.


I find it weird that I despise the Conservative party in Canada, but I respect John McCain is way more conservative.



That is funny, considering that the conservative party is probably more liberal than the American Democratic party lolol. I have a feeling that Dion has a chance to win; well i hope the Liberals win because normally the conservatives govern during recessions and if they maintain power, then the recession continues.

But in regards to your original questio; i still do not know why it's so close. From an outsider perspective it seems ridiculous that Americans will want to vote for the same party that is destroying their nation (especially in regards to their popularity).


Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:50 am
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Post Re: WHY is it still so close?
Mannyisthebest wrote:
Why?

Its a question that needs to be asked.
Kerry and Gore had massive leads by this time.


No, they didn't.

1. By Newsweek's poll, Kerry had a 2 points lead going into the convention and 8 points after the convention.

2. According to CNN poll, Gore trailed by 16 points (!) heading into the convention (one reason was because Rep convention was first).

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Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:54 am
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Post Re: WHY is it still so close?
You bring an excellent point, don't trust the network news with Stats.


They brought up some stats showing them both with double digit leads.






About Canada, I would actually like the Tories to win so they can kick Dion out and put a decent leader and they can easily call another election and imo they would handily win because Harper makes more enemies then friends these days.
The highpoint and low point for the Tories and Liberals were at the end of the last election.

The Tories have lost support and the people who voted them will now go for the Liberals, however because of Dion, it will not be enough to win.

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Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:58 am
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Post Re: WHY is it still so close?
McCain for the last decade has been the biggest political celebrity in the country. He's appeared on Leno 12 times and on The Daily Show and other shows many times. He cultivated his image in the media in a very high profile way for a long time. That still pays dividends. The public is used to him, they think he's a maverick even though he's flip flopped on all major issues.


Thu Aug 28, 2008 3:44 am
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Post Re: WHY is it still so close?
Mannyisthebest wrote:
Well most of you guys sit on the coast and know little about the land in the middle which is alien to Democrats.


This is preposterously stupid propaganda by Republicans. I hope you don't actually believe this.


Thu Aug 28, 2008 4:47 am
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Post Re: WHY is it still so close?
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This is preposterously stupid propaganda by Republicans. I hope you don't actually believe this.



Well whats the reason the only state the only midwest State that was won since 2000 by democrats was Illinois?

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Thu Aug 28, 2008 9:57 am
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Post Re: WHY is it still so close?
Mannyisthebest wrote:
Well whats the reason the only state the only midwest State that was won since 2000 by democrats was Illinois?


You mean OTHER than Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan? You're right. Obviously Bush won the red states, not because more Reps live there, but because NO DEMOCRATS live there at all. :roll: And not only do no Dems live there at all, they've all moved out since 2000 in a mass exodus of millions of people somehow missed by the media.


Thu Aug 28, 2008 12:28 pm
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Post Re: WHY is it still so close?
I never knew Montana, Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa are filled with coastal elites. Maybe I need new glasses, but I didn't see no ocean there.

Of course, it didn't help that liberals spent two years whining about 2004, with insulting graphics like the infamous "Jesusland" map. There are Republicans and Democrats everywhere, and most people of either party are good people with good intentions. Sometimes all it takes is a slight nudge, a little bit of field effort.

Corpse, if you're reading this: according to Convention scuttlebutt, Obama will have an operation in West Virginia.

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Post Re: WHY is it still so close?
Anita Hussein Briem wrote:
I never knew Montana, Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa are filled with coastal elites. Maybe I need new glasses, but I didn't see no ocean there.

Of course, it didn't help that liberals spent two years whining about 2004, with insulting graphics like the infamous "Jesusland" map. There are Republicans and Democrats everywhere, and most people of either party are good people with good intentions. Sometimes all it takes is a slight nudge, a little bit of field effort.

Corpse, if you're reading this: according to Convention scuttlebutt, Obama will have an operation in West Virginia.


I also read in the paper this morning Rockefeller talking about how he thinks Obama can win in WV (of course he would say this), but internal polling supposedly has McCain leading by 8 points according to the article. And if it's accurate, that's great. And I think if Hillary and/or Bill campaigned for him here (super popular, both of them), that would really close the gap, but Obama needs to spend some time here too. He can win here.

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Thu Aug 28, 2008 3:33 pm
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Post Re: WHY is it still so close?
I really hope so too. WV has gotten the short of the electoral stick. The Bush-McCain elitists that think West Virginians can't see through their bullshit, and the Obama fanatics that think the whole state's racist. I think some respect would go a long way. After all, you're right -- it's a state with a D governor, two D senators, and both houses of the state legislature are D.

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Thu Aug 28, 2008 3:49 pm
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Post Re: WHY is it still so close?
Anita Hussein Briem wrote:
I really hope so too. WV has gotten the short of the electoral stick -- the Bush-McCain elitists that think West Virginians can't see through their bullshit, and the Obama fanatics that think the whole state's racist. I think some respect would go a long way.


That's a state where they need to pull out the Clinton guns with both barrels (Bill and Hill) blazing.


Thu Aug 28, 2008 3:52 pm
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Post Re: WHY is it still so close?
And I think it's so close because the media WANTS it to be close. Otherwise, they have nothing to talk about. Ever since McCain became the nominee, you've seen a palpable shift in coverage of Obama AND McCain designed to close the gap.

If McCain starts to pull away, you'll see it again.


Thu Aug 28, 2008 3:54 pm
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Post Re: WHY is it still so close?
Gallup now shows a 48-42 lead by Obama. And he hasn't given his speech yet.


Thu Aug 28, 2008 4:24 pm
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Post Re: WHY is it still so close?
Beeblebrox wrote:
Gallup now shows a 48-42 lead by Obama. And he hasn't given his speech yet.

Convention bounces rarely last.

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Post Re: WHY is it still so close?
Anita Hussein Briem wrote:
I really hope so too. WV has gotten the short of the electoral stick. The Bush-McCain elitists that think West Virginians can't see through their bullshit, and the Obama fanatics that think the whole state's racist. I think some respect would go a long way. After all, you're right -- it's a state with a D governor, two D senators, and both houses of the state legislature are D.


We have Shelly Moore Capito (R). :disgust: During my junior year of High School, if we went to a town hall meeting featuring her that was taking place in my town, we would receive extra credit. I decided to go (when I first became interested in politics), and my science teacher just owned her on every single issue. Mostly science based ones of course. Over half here answers were "I'll talk to my advisers, and get back to you on that." She answered a TON of questions with that line, or a similar line. Unfortunately polling has her in a competitive race for Sen Byrd's seat.



Here is a poll/article on WV from June 6th.

Quote:
John McCain begins the general election season with an eight-point advantage over Barack Obama in West Virginia. The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of this general election match-up shows McCain attracting 45% of the vote while Obama earns 37%.

Neither man is terribly popular in the state. McCain earns favorable reviews from 48% and unfavorable ratings from another 48%. The numbers for Obama are 40% favorable and 57% unfavorable. Those figures include 26% with a Very Unfavorable opinion of McCain and 35% with such a negative view of Obama.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Republicans are given a 90.0 % chance of winning West Virginia’s five Electoral College votes this fall. Four years ago, George W. Bush won the state by thirteen percentage points. Four years earlier, West Virginia abandoned a long history of voting for Democrats as the GOP won a six-point victory. West Virginia is listed as “Safely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

While President Bush won 56% of the West Virginia vote in Election 2004, just 27% of the state’s voters now believe he is doing a good or an excellent job. Most—58%--say the President is doing a poor job.

By a 59% to 32% margin, West Virginia voters say it’s more important to get the troops home from Iraq than to win the War. Forty-five percent (45%) say victory is at least somewhat likely if John McCain is elected President. Just 20% say that victory is that likely if Obama is elected. However, 48% believe a President Obama would be at least somewhat likely to get the troops home within four years. Just 35% say a President McCain would be likely to do the same.

Just 12% of West Virginia voters believe that the federal government represents the will of the people while 76% say it does not. These figures are similar to the national average. Seventy percent (70%) say the federal government has become a special interest group that looks out primarily for its own interests.

Forty-one percent (41%) believe American elections are fair to voters. However, 73% are confident their votes will be accurately counted and the appropriate candidates declared as winners.


I think being behind 8 points in June, and apparently now too according to the paper I read this morning at work, is good for Obama. He spent very little time here before the primary, and hasn't since unfortunately, so I'm surprised polls haven't shown double digit leads for McCain. But, I think it shows WV is a Blue State, and Obama can only improve his numbers if he spends some time here in the coming months. It's just 5 Electoral Votes, but I really think those 5 are very much in play. McCain isn't popular here (15% of the vote during the first round here in the primaries), and thankfully WV's approval rating of Bush is 27% now (comparable with the national average, if not lower really). I'm sure that's keeping McCain's numbers down. McCain's numbers are probably going to remain where they are, I don't think there's much room for improvement overall. The DEMS need to take advantage of this.

Having Hillary and Bill Clinton campaign here would be a huge first step. During the primaries, Hillary and Bill, and even Chelsea made several appearances around the state. One stop Bill Clinton made was 20 miles away from me (a town with less than 5,000 people), and I live in the middle of nowhere. That means alot to the people here. Obama making a few of these sort of stops would really spread throughout the state, and help more than he could imagine.

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Thu Aug 28, 2008 7:04 pm
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Post Re: WHY is it still so close?
Presidential elections are rarely all about the party, they are usually a lot about the individual and personality. You have to wonder how someone like McCain with all of his media advantages for years now, the media just constantly sucking up to him, and yet still je is unable to seal the deal, he can't close it. It's kind of strange.


Thu Aug 28, 2008 7:18 pm
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Post Re: WHY is it still so close?
Good article in Newsweek or Time (can't seem to find it online) this week in which the author points out that if you take out whites over 50, Obama is creaming McCain.

Basically, it's older whites who just can't vote for a black man that is keeping this race competitive.

Good article, with polls and surveys to support the thesis. Wish I could find it...

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Thu Aug 28, 2008 8:33 pm
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Post Re: WHY is it still so close?
Groucho wrote:
Good article in Newsweek or Time (can't seem to find it online) this week in which the author points out that if you take out whites over 50, Obama is creaming McCain.

Basically, it's older whites who just can't vote for a black man that is keeping this race competitive.

Good article, with polls and surveys to support the thesis. Wish I could find it...


Yes, but you could argue that about any particular demo. Take out the black vote and where is Obama? I'm not disagreeing, I'm just saying that at the end of the day, you need them all.


Thu Aug 28, 2008 8:36 pm
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Post Re: WHY is it still so close?
True if you take out the Black white, McCain wins a majority.

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Fri Aug 29, 2008 12:27 am
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Post Re: WHY is it still so close?
Woo Hoo!

With McCain's brilliant choice of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate, Obama is officially toast (white toast, yes, but still toast)!!!

There may be hope for America yet!


Fri Aug 29, 2008 1:30 pm
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Post Re: WHY is it still so close?
Beeble, do you remember when we argued about Racism in the democratic party, and you told me that all the racists were republican!

Oh that still makes me hoot.

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