Thought I would start a new thread to keep an eye on the electoral college based on current polls.

Disclaimers: This can change tremendously between now and election day. All this shows is what the result would probably be if the election were held today:

You need 270 to win.

On June 25 it would be Obama 328 EVs, McCain 183, 27 tied



Dark blue means more than 10 points ahead in favor of Obama; light blue means less than 10%; blue outline means within 5%, and same thing for McCain in red.

Should pimp the site with the chart: www.electoral-vote.com

Yep, sorry!

6/26: Missouri moves from slightly Obama to leans McCain.

Obama still ahead 317-194

Obama needs to really go all out and secure the Great Lakes and Virgina and he would easily win.

Guess I'll pimp my other favorite site (besides pollster and electoral-vote): http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/.

Since the last update, Michigan has moved from "slightly Obama" to "leans Obama" and Texas has moved from "Safe McCain" to "leans McCain"

What made Missouri shift so quickly? Did some Ozark clan start a cult or something?

A new SurveyUSA poll had McCain leading by 7 there, 50-43, although their general election polls have made me suspicious of their method since they are the outliers for a few states so far; it doesn't appear the record will be as good as their primary polls.

This is not an exact science.

This particular web page I am using takes the most recent poll, and with a 3 - 4 percent margin of error, there can be vast differences between two polls done even close together.

The other page which averages them out may be more accurate, but I like Electoral Vote.com because it can show trends.

Here's the latest one as of June 30th:



Looks like Georgia is moving back to safe McCain territory.

I don't buy that with Georgia. I think SC will be more safe for him than Georgia will. I would be shocked if MCcain won SC by less than 10%. Living in this state i know it is mostly republican.

I'd follow the most pessimistic poll, as I'm sure a good percentage are claiming to vote Obama out of guilt, as much as I hate to say that.

Obama is far from first choice out of the democratic candidates this year but even I don't think that. For whatever reason there is a large core group of voters who are genuinely excited to vote for him. Personally I think it is a mixture of youth, race and the factor of an relatively unknown politician who doesn't have the appearance of being tied to the beltway.
While I do not think this will be an easy election for Obama, I have taken comfort in the fact that McCain seems to be a shadow of who he was in the 2000 election and that he is having trouble with the conservative base and while trying to woo them he is faltering with the independents who he was popular with earlier.
What still remains to be seen is what happens after the conventions when McCain will feel less pressure from the conservative base and the GOP starts with real negative attacks on Obama which will mostly BSs. The issues I have with Obama are not suitable for a 30 second clip to explain and wouldn't really put McCain in a better light either.

Florida moves from tied to leans McCain on July 1

Connecticut moves into the safe Obama territory in the latest update (7/3)

what has made Alaska go from being a Republican stronghold to a democratic area???

Probably because one of their Republican senators and their only representative are under investigation for corruption. Both are hanging on to their seats by the tiniest of margins this year so I bet that their popularity has something to do with the possible shift to democratic this year.

I think some of it is that libertarian types are tending to shift toward the democrats as they see that the republicans are not the small government, balanced budget people they always pretend to be. That's why Obama is doing well in places where that kind of fronteir independence is usually strong: New Hampshire, Montana, and Alaska come to mind. (A new poll out today shows Obama ahead of McCain in Montana)

Basically what Groucho said.

Thank jeebus Connecticut's safe Obama territory again. But it gives me less incentive to move out of here in the next two years.

Montana moves into Obama territory on July 4th! Obama 320 - McCain 218

Obama needs to build up a huge lead because it will be a mich closer result then polls will show..


Why??

Its the "I am going to vote for the Black guy, but at the pooling station I had second thought" syndrome...

North Dakota moves away from McCain to "tied"! (July 10)

Obama's making deep cuts into the west.

Missouri moves from leans McCain to tied! July 13

It seems like the notion that the polls will tighten up as the race goes on doesn't seem to be happening. It's still a long way to the election of course, but I'd expect the current trend to continue for some time. By the time they do start moving the other way toward McCain, there will be too much ground for him to cover to win.