The main event starts on Thursday.

Scotty Nguyen just won the $50K HORSE bracelet, and so far John Phan has won twice. Pros like Erick Lindgren, Mike Matusow, Daniel Negreanu, Kenny Tran, Barry Greenstein also won.

http://www.worldseriesofpoker.com/tourn ... roupid=411

So begins the dangerous trek of somehow avoiding being spoiled of who wins the Main Event before the ESPN coverage.

When should the last day be? (so I know not to watch sportscenter and the like those couple days since ESPN LOVES to ruin their coverage for whatever reason.)

The official website said Nov 9-10 for the final table; I doubt that's correct. Should be July 15 and 16, so early morning of 17th.

They made a change this year.

When the final 9 are known, everybody will get paid out 9th place money and then there will be a several month hiatus.

The will conduct the final table in November, two days before the final table will air on ESPN.

Umm... why?

I can't remember exactly, did the ESPN coverage always last that long?

They used to start airing like a month after the main event and cover about 10 events (?), one episode (or two for a couple of more exciting one and more for the HORSE) per event, and two episodes a week. Then probably 15 episodes for the main event. So the timing is about right. This will certainly make the final table rating better.

I'd like to see Jerry Yang play again. He was a fun poker player to watch and I'm really glad he triumphed over that other dude who back doored his way to 2nd place.

If that change is true, it's a great idea.

Maybe they should do some type of pay per view event. Where you just get to see the card play and hear the table action. I don't know. I think that would be a good money maker especially if a pro was able to make it to the final table.

My uncle drove up to Vegas last night because his best friend, Daniel Negreanu (Yeah, I know), invited him to watch.

First cash pay-outs for the #666-622 players.

Spoilers

These players receive $21,230: 622 Senovio Ramirez 623 Nadav Benjosef 624 Adam Richardson 625 Vanessa Rousso 626 Ryan Jones 627 Les Jesudason 628 Wolbert Bartlema 629 Todd Jatras 630 Mats Clavell 631 Julian Meer 632 Nicholas Goodall 633 Nathaniel Eaton 634 David Trinh 635 Jason Gray 636 Brian Pinkus 637 Michel Leibgorin 638 Shan Jing 639 Michael Berra 640 Patri Forwalterfriedman 641 Douglas Janney 642 Claudio Rinaldi 643 Messaoud Bouchaib 644 Walter Bizarro 645 Patrick Pezzin 646 Kenneth McKusick 647 Rui Cao 648 Juan Hernandez 649 Bryan Tiffin 650 Carl Restifo 651 Men Nguyen 652 Pascal Guerillot 653 Matthew Clark 654 Tam Gourlay 655 Roy Vandersluis 656 - 657 Sasa Stancic 658 David Gallis 659 Robert Parkin 660 Robert Melnyk 661 Lorenz Roder 662 Dale Sing 663 Tommy Brown 664 Herik Abrahamsson 665 Justin Phillips 666 Joe Conti

Gus Hansen, Phil Helmuth, Johnny Chan, Chip Jett, and Evelyn "Champaigne" Ng are still alive with approx. 300-340K chips. Hoyt Corkins and Mike "the Mouth" Matusow have approx. 425-450K in chips. John-Robert Bellande and Allen Cunningham have approx. 261K. Day 2 chip leader Brian Schaedlich, who started the day with 810K is down to a little under 300k. Jeremiah Smith is the current chip leader with 1.2m, 300k ahead of his nearest competitor. Current avg. stack (as of 1/2 hour ago) 220K. Most likely appox. 225-230k now.

Newest batch of bust-outs.
605 Darren Nelson 606 Ryan Monastyrski 607 Matthew Bucaric 608 Weiwan Liang 609 Emad Tahtouh 610 Berk Aydin 611 Jeffrey Hakim 612 Alioscia Oliva 613 Jonathan Lane 614 Cuong Nguyen 615 Milan Andrejkovics 616 Bill Gazes 617 Francis Rusnak 618 Brandon Adams 619 John Henck 620 Allen Bari 621 Jose Roberto

Everyone after this will be getting $23k.

Two former main event champions are left. Pulling for at least one of them.

Update since last night...

Spoilers

475.Keir Fitz-Gibbon$27,020 476.Aaron Steury$27,020 477.Marcus Golser$27,020 478.Oskar Silow$25,090 479.Leroy Spires$25,090 480.Roger Pruzansky$25,090 481.Ben Sprengers$25,090 482.Jason House$25,090 483.Rolf Slotboom$25,090 484.Edmund Chan$25,090 485.Daniel Barlin$25,090 486.Jeffrey Palarino$25,090 487.Jeff Norman$25,090 488.Judy Raney$25,090 489.Edmond Mekertichian$25,090 490.Gary Herstein$25,090 491.Andreas Jorbeck$25,090 492.Ruben Juarez$25,090 493.Beisheng Chen$25,090 494.Al Riccobono$25,090 495.Daryn Firicano$25,090 496.Gerald Macleod$25,090 497.Sean Fennessey$25,090 498.Howard German$25,090 499.Christophe Gross$25,090 500.James Peera$25,090 501.Lei Cai$25,090 502.Ron Jenkins$25,090 503.Francesco de Vivo$25,090 504.David Silk$25,090 505.Joe McGowan$25,090 506.Bryan Bevis$25,090 507.James Grimes$25,090 508.James Maltz$25,090 509.Luke Vrabel$25,090 510.David Stucke$25,090 511.Bob Jarman$25,090 512.Michael Vonada$25,090 513.David Gee$25,090 514.George Wedemeyer$25,090 515.Todd Pierce$25,090 516.James Eccles$25,090 517.Chris (The Armenian Express) Grigorian$25,090 518.Chau Giang$25,090 519.William douglas Smith$25,090 520.Hamid Jahangard$25,090 521.Serg Markarian$25,090 522.Asher Derei$25,090 523.David Sacks$25,090 524.Michael Perez$25,090 525.Brian Montag$25,090 526.Bob Slezak$25,090 527.Vimy Ha$25,090 528.Wendell Olsen$25,090 529.Vlad Teposu$25,090 530.Wooka Kim$25,090 531.Gjorgji Chuchuk$25,090 532.Jason Kang$25,090 533.Rory Chinn$25,090 534.Dan Glimne$25,090 535.Robert Kovar$25,090 536.Farzad Rouhani$25,090 537.Janne Runtti$25,090 538.John Strzemp$25,090 539.Mark Tenner$25,090 540.Matthew Mezvinsky$25,090 541.Stephen Landrum$23,160 542.Rene Refsgaard$23,160 543.Eugenio Neto$23,160 544.Soren Jensen$23,160 545.Michael Johnson$23,160 546.Jesse Kremer$23,160 547.Soren Knudson$23,160 548.Michael Offerman$23,160 549.Valdemar Kwaysser$23,160 550.Jason Ashley$23,160 551.Andreas Torbergsen$23,160 552.Stephen Austin$23,160 553.Henning Granstad$23,160 554.Ernesto Margolis$23,160 555.Adam Grovenstein$23,160 556.Zelong Dong$23,160 557.John Kapovich$23,160 558.Alex Smith$23,160 559.Henrik Thuesen$23,160 560.Gary Hamilton$23,160 561.Paul Coles$23,160 562.Si Vo$23,160 563.Jody Garaventa$23,160 564.James Lowe$23,160 565.Michael Grabmugg$23,160 566.Robert Crawford$23,160 567.Yonghui Jiang$23,160 568.Rickey Welch$23,160 569.Karen Mengden$23,160 570.Kermit Mallette$23,160 571.Brian Brubaker$23,160 572.Michael Frandsen$23,160 573.Steven Levy$23,160 574.Va shon Watkins$23,160 575.Jason Nadeau$23,160 576.Jerome Mercado$23,160 577.Martyn Sands$23,160 578.Brett Houghton$23,160 579.David Rosenbloom$23,160 580.Thomas (Matt) Culberson$23,160 581.Justin Truesdell$23,160 582.Pierre Marceau$23,160 583.Robert Anderson$23,160 584.Jeremy Symington$23,160 585.Jan Heitmann$23,160 586.Nathan Doudney$23,160 587.Izakron Young$23,160 588.Olivier Decamps$23,160 589.Bijan Shahbaz$23,160 590.Jesper Anderberg$23,160 591.Brandon Foster$23,160 592.Brett Richey$23,160 593.Rubens Bicalho$23,160 594.Daniel Marchand$23,160 595.Age Spets$23,160 596.Raymond Yee$23,160 597.Matthew Kennedy$23,160 598.Rasmus Vogt$23,160 599.Wilbur Futhey$23,160 600.Thor Hansen$23,160 601.Benjamin Zamani$23,160 602.Magnus Persson$23,160 603.Johan Slutter$23,160 604.Sharon Levine$21,230

Currently:
Avg. chip count 350,077

Above the line: Chip leader Jeremy Joseph 2.0m, five other players above 1m
Notables Allen Cunningham 930k, Gus Hansen 600k (just took a big hit for -130k), Hevad Khan 530k, Phil Hellmuth 475k, Mike Matusow 438k, Hoyt Corkins 425k, Chip Jett 410k, Evelyn Ng 390k (unless I am missing someone she is the leading female entrant

Below the line: Johnny Chan 290k,

Felted: Jean Robert Bellande, Robert Mizrachi, and Day 3 chip leader Brian Sedlich (he started day 3 with 810k and ended it with 22k, just did not get any of his outs in decisive pots) are out but their exact place has not yet been recorded. Another early chip leader from Day 2 and still in the top 5 on Day 3 Hunter Frey is in trouble with 110k.

Cunningham is up to 1.2m. Maybe he will indeed keep his bracelet streak going.

Still pulling for Johnny Chan though.

Still early, but if all the remaining well-known pros could last deep into the weekend, this is going to be fun.

Spoilers

I should have waited until the first 20 min break.

Avg chip count: 377,080

Players left: 363

Minimum pay-out from this point forward: $28,950

Players just finished level 16 and after this break will begin L17 with blinds $3-6k and antes $1k. Hunter Frey just got knocked out, Cunningham has gotten up to 1.2m, and Hellmuth had some sort of tantrum over another player's straight, but he got away from it without going broke.

I should have posted this in my first post. I have been getting all this information from these two sites.

http://www.worldseriesofpoker.com/tourn ... 8&grid=411
http://www.pokerlistings.com/live-tourn ... ve-updates

I wonder what will happen if Shawn Sheikhan runs into Mike Matusow again.

Hevad Khan is still alive too!

Spoilers

Level: 19
Blinds: 5,000/10,000
Ante: 1,000
Average Stack: $724,233
Players Left: 189
Tables Left: 22

Players left: 189

Minimum pay-out from this point forward: $38,600

Leaders: Jeremy Joseph 2.19m
Cristian Dragmir 2.07m (Dragmir got about 1m from Joseph just before the end of play, Joseph had massive chip lead over the field before that hand)
Chino Rheem 2.0m

39 Players with 1.0m-1.8m

Notables: Brandon Cantu 1.58m
Mark Vos 1.37m
Gus Hansen 1.36m
Allen Cunningham 1.27m

Notables below the avg. line:
Chip Jett 620k
Phil Hellmuth 570k
Mike Matusow 550k
Hoyt Corkins 330k

Johnny Chan went out just before the second break. Khan and Ng went out right after the dinner session started.

I am really flabbergasted at how many players have gone out the past two days. It really started on day 2B when 2/3's of that day's field busted out. That pattern has repeated itself as a 60% attrition rate has been maintained today (they only played 3.75 levels, when they had scheduled 5) and 45% yesterday. The play has been very aggressive as the blinds are only 5/10k. I have played many tourneys short stacked and I would not be as aggressive as some of these players with very marginal hands when they still have 20-30 times the BB, even when including the antes.

Then again, they are playing and I am reading it on-line.

Ah, big name pros are dropping fast, even though a few of them looked really pretty earlier in the day. Now I'm sure ESPN is hoping both Phil Hellmuth and Mike Matusow to make to the final table.

Oh my, Mark Vos was busted on the last hand of the day, going all-in holding just an A-K offsuit, with $1.5m chips! That's simply too aggressive and careless.

Play like that you deserve to be gone.

Aggressive is the current style of choice, and I personally hate it. In most cases, it's not good poker.

Especially, since there were 2 or three reraises, in that specific hand if I read the updates properly. At some point you have to think at best case you're in a coin flip against Qs (and even that makes AK a 1.3/1 dog approx.) and most likely a huge dog at a minimum of 2.3/1 if not 10/1 or worse depending on the suits of the cards involved.

Yeah, I mean if you are an aggressive type like Hoyt Corkins or Gus Hansen, and you make a raise to get position or steal with marginal hands, that is one thing. I find it perfectly valid, but if you are reraised then call with the same marginal hands, I find that to be poor play. Couple of examples...



Example A





http://www.pokerlistings.com/live-tourn ... ates?day=3


He is almost a 2/1 against any two cards higher than 5 and an underdog against every single hand combination other than 23os,43os, and 53os. Even in those situations it is 50% more likely the hand will be chopped than he will win. Against a middle pair or higher he is a 5/1 dog and a 2/1 dog against an Ace with big kicker.

Nguyen doesn't bluff often, if at all when short stacked (I have never seen it myself) with all his chips, so this player made a terrrible call IMHO, because you almost have to put Nguyen on a middle pair or better, and at worst a Big A w/(KQJ). Now many will state he was getting 3.67/1 pot odds, and against another player, this might have been the right call (against Hansen this is probably the right call), if it is 50/50 he has the big pair or two overcards. However, knowing how tight Nguyen plays, you have to figure he has a big pair around 80% (or even higher) of the time. It really isn't worth it to call unless you have 4.5/1 or better pot odds in my estimation (again against a tight player), after you have been priced into the action.

Around the 4 min. mark Nguyen states my observation as his philosophy going into day 3.

http://tv.pokernews.com/featured-videos ... 1659819808

In the first place, I really hate this raise from early position. The WSOP usually has 9 players at a table, if this guy was the first to act in early, he has to navigate 6-8 other players that could have pocket pairs of 5 or higher. The odds are 1 out every 2.5 hands at least one person at a 9 player table will have a pocket pair that high or higher. If any of them raises him he is a 5/1 or worse dog (against 5s he is a 9/1 dog). At least if the two cards were suited it would make calls much more profitable, against Big slick you go from almost a 2/1 dog to a 1.5/1 dog and against big pairs you go from a little over 5/1 to a little under 4/1, that is a big difference. This play is not nearly as bad or costly from late to middle position, because then you have position and have information at least 4 other players don't have big pairs, so you increase your odds of stealing the pot or not having to deal with a pocket pair.

http://tv.pokernews.com/featured-videos ... 1659819808

Example B



http://www.pokerlistings.com/live-tourn ... ates?day=5

Again, I don't like Ace rag even suited against an early raiser short stacked. You have to weigh the very real likelihood it isn't a bluff, since the player is in early position and not likely to want to risk a bluff out of position. So, she risks the real possibility of being almost certainly a 2/1 underdog and she is putting in half the chips. Her call after the re-raise was good in that the only time she would not have pot odds was against AA, which is always unlikely, unless I am caller ;-)...

Example C

I can't find the link but Gus Hansen was in late or middle position and he raised (3/5x? the BB) 15K with Q9os and then was reraised by the BB to 100K (all-in), and Gus called the $85k and was getting 1.44/1 pot odds, but he was a 2.5 dog (the other player had pocket Ts or Js). Even on the off chance the guy was bluffing or had a pair under Gus' nine, I think he made a bad call. There is also the 1/9 chance the guy has him really dominated with pockets A-Q, where Gus is at best a 7/1 dog.

Just my thoughts. I think Michelle has no chance to make the Final Table, because she is making mistakes and not paying for them as of yet...

Spoilers

Helmuth is in last place of the 51 players left. Matusow is doing fine with 3.4m. Previous chip leader (as of Friday) Jeremy Joseph was eliminated in 57th place. Wow, I didn't realize the chip leader starting today was eliminated too!! 52nd place.


Level: 24
Blinds: 15,000/30,000
Ante: 4,000
Average Stack: $2,63,921
Players Left: 59
Tables Left: 7

Current Top 10
Gert Andersen 9,275,000 -525,000
Brandon Cantu 7,300,000 +1,100,000
Nikolay Losev 7,200,000 -50,000
Albert Kim 6,600,000 -930,000
Ivan Demidov 6,350,000 -150,000
Chris Klodnicki 5,340,000 +30,000
Kelly Kim 4,700,000 -50,000
Aaron Gordon 4,577,000 -223,000
Dennis Phillips 4,300,000 +620,000
Tiffany Michelle 4,000,000 +200,000

I would be really scared of Cantu, he plays very well with a big stack.