Final Predictions.

1. Hide and Seek 13.8
2. Million Dollar Baby 13.5
3. Are We There Yet? 11.1
4. Alone in the Dark 7.5
5. The Aviator 7.3
6. Meet the Fockers 6.6
7. Coach Carter 6.4
8. In Good Company 5.7
9. Sideways 5.1
10. Racing Stripes 4.5

BJs wknd outlook 8)

1.Million Dollar Baby - 21.79m (+1220% from last Wknd)
2.Hide and Seek - 21.49m New
3.Are We There Yet - 13.92m (-26% from last Wknd)
4.The Aviator - 11.28m (+235% from last Wknd)
5.Coach Carter - 9.78m (-7% from last Wknd)
6.Meet the Fockers - 9.25m (-5% from last Wknd)
7.In Good Company - 8.36m (+4% from last Wknd)
8.Sideways - 7.94m (+178% from last Wknd)
9.Alone in the Dark - 7.30m New
10.The Racing Stipes - 6.00m (-12% from last Wknd)
11.Assault on Precint 13 - 5.48m (-15% from last Wknd)
12.The Phantom of the Opera - 5.14m (+13% from last Wknd)

Top Ten Total: 117.10m
Top Twelve Total: 127.72m

1. Hide & Seek - $15.8
2. Million Dollar Baby - $12.7
3. Are We There Yet? - $10.1
8. The Aviator - $7.6
4. Meet the Fockers - $6.3
5. Alone in the Dark - $6.3
6 Sideways - $6.3
7. Coach Carter - $6.2
9. In Good Company - $5.3
10. Racing Stripes - $4.6
11. Assault on Precinct 13 $3.9
12. The Phantom of the $3.5

Here's what I predicted:
1. Hide & Seek - $15.5
2. Million Dollar Baby - $13.6
3. Are We There Yet? - $11.8
4. Meet the Fockers - $7.5
5. Coach Carter - $7.5
6. The Aviator - $7.3
7 Sideways - $6
8. In Good Company - $5.9
9. Racing Stripes - $5.2
10. Alone in the Dark - $5
11. Assault on Precinct 13 - $4
12. The Phantom of the Opera - $3.7

LOL, everybody has about the same predictions... I think we'll see another 'surprise-winner' this weekend...

Hide and Seek $15.2 m
Million Dollar Baby $12.9 m
Are We There Yet? $12.8 m
Meet the Fockers $7.5 m
The Aviator $7.5 m
Sideways $7.1 m
Coach Carter $6.8 m
In Good Company $5.8 m
Alone in the Dark $5.7 m
Racing Stripes $4.2 m
Assault on Precinct 13 $3.7 m
The Phantom of the Opera $3.3 m
White Noise $2.9 m
Elektra $1.6 m

A bit lower for most in the Derby. After spending a bit more time on my predictions I decided to increases them.

Final Derby predictions:

1. Hide & Seek - $19.5
2. Million Dollar Baby - $16.0
3. Are We There Yet? - $11.0
4. The Aviator - $7.7
5. Meet the Fockers - $7.4
6. Coach Carter - $7.4
7. Sideways - $6.8
8. In Good Company - $5.8
9. Racing Stripes - $5.0
10. Alone in the Dark - $4.2
11. Assault on Precinct 13 - $4
12. The Phantom of the Opera - $3.5

Final Djerbi predictions...

01. Hide & Seek $14.3m
02. Million Dollar Baby $12.7m
03. Are We There Yet? $8.4m
04. The Aviator $6.6m
05. Coach Carter $6.3m
06. Sideways $6.2m
07. Meet the Fockers $6.0m
08. In Good Company $4.9m
09. Alone in the Dark $4.6m
10. Racing Stripes $4.3m
11. The Phantom of the Opera $3.7m
12. Assault on Precinct 13 $3.5m

Nobody else but BJ and I think the Phantom of the Opera will increase this weekend? Its biggest market was probably in New York, and the dailies are already way ahead of last week. The only thing that might make it decrease is the competition of Million Dollar Baby.

But there won't be massive theater count expansion like last weekend, so you can't go by the daily increase to project weekend increase. :wink: The Friday increase will be more like 120% instead of 300%.

If you compare with the last time it didn't increase theater count, which is the week of Jan 3-9, you will see the weekend number will be more like $421,128 (this Wed gross) / $415,390 (Jan 5 gross) * $3,420,307 (Jan 7-9 weekend) = about $3.5M.

I predict around $3.5 million for The Phantom of the Opera as well.


As for the others:

1. Hide and Seek - $18.5 million
2. Million Dollar Baby - $13.4 million
3. Are we there yet? - $9 million
4. The Aviator - $8.9 million
5. Meet the Fockers - $8.1 million
6. Coach Carter - $7.7 million
7. In Good Company - $6.8 million
8. Sideways - $6.2 million
9. Racing Stripes - $5.8 million
10. Alone in the Dark - $5.5 million

I had completely forgotten about that theater increase! Hopefully it won't decrease too hard, and I won't get a sub 70% score on it...

The most optimistic projection I could make would still only give it $4.3 million:

Friday: $1.10 (+150%)
Saturday: $1.75 (+58%)
Sunday: $1.42 (-19%)

Yihaaaaw!

BJ wins the derby.

I do honestly think that there will be lots of underpredicting this weekend.

Heh, and I think the opposite. Lost of overpredicting.

Then why are you predicting so low for Are We There Yet? A 51.5% drop is pretty steep for a kid movie...

Well, I looked at Johnson Family Vacation and then took a somewhat higher Friday increase and a somewhat better weekend multiplier and that's what I've got.

I forgot about the lame weather last week and think I might have dropped some of my movies to much due to that

oh well we shall see

Family movies usually get about 14X as much on the weekend then on Thursday, so I expect at least 11m.

Final Predictions

1. Hide and Seek - $21 million
2. Million Dollar Baby - $14 million
3. Are We There Yet? - $12.1 million
4. Coach Carter - $7 million
5. Meet the Fockers - $6.8 million
6. Sideways - $6.8 million
7. Alone in the Dark - $6.4 million
8. In Good Company - $6.2 million
9. Racing Stripes - $4.5 million
10. Assault on Precinct 13 - $3.5 million

I hope so

:rock: