If anything, the light-red and borderline states would most likely go blue (compared to the other way around).

Obama has so many things going for him that McCain doesn't: amazing financial advantage, groundswell of discontent towards GOP policies, general desire for change, etc.

I agree, plus big numbers of new voters coming out and getting involved. I'm not sure the polls are taking that into account. If Obama and McCain are tied in the polls, but 50% more Obama people vote than was expected, it could be a landslide.

it'll be very close but I'm giving the edge to Obama. When I did the state thing that Manny posted McCain won but by October I think Obama probably will steal a couple states that put him over the edge.

Here's my prediction:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/po ... ,ks&uList=

Hmmm. Linking doesn't work.

here's mine at the moment

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/po ... ,ks&uList=

If you think it goes narrowly to Obama, which state do you see switching? I'd say Ohio.

You think Obama will lose Ohio, New Hampshire and Colorado? He's currently ahead in all three.

I think that he has nowhere to go but up, really -- as he becomes more familiar he should do better, and McCain will soon be saddled with "Bush term three" by every democrat in America. I think McCain is going to have a rough time.

Ironically, it seems like Texas and Indiana will be easier to turn blue than Florida.

Hopefully, this will finally lead to the downplay of Florida's importance in the election.

i think Virginia could switch, I could see Missouri switching, Ohio is a possibility, NH will switch back to Obama I'm sure. Problem with McCain is he doesn't swing any blue states red, he can only swing the swing states, Obama can potential swing red states.

Jim, your prediction is interesting, because if you simply switch NH from red to blue, we have a tie!!

knowing this election, that would actually happen.

I hesitate to be overly optimistic, but I agree with this assessment.

If Ohio does not go Democrat its gone for a long time for them like Florida.


what happens in a tie???

Obama should either fight to keep Michigan and take Ohio...

Or keep Michigan and take Virgina all out attack and then take either Iowa, Colorado, NM or Nevada.

He Must take Virgina though...


Obama Must win one big state like Virgina and pick up one smaller state.
or Pick up three small states. If he picks up Iowa, NM and Nevada its a tie!!



Here is another tie situation...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/?dList=ia,nh,nv,ca,ct,de,il,nj,ny,ore,pa,ri,mi,wa,me1,me2,me0,md,wi,hi,ma,mn,vt,nm,dc&rList=sc,fl,al,ak,ar,wy,co,ga,mo,nc,ok,tn,ut,la,va,az,nd,oh,tx,ms,ind,ne0,ne1,ne2,ne3,wv,ky,id,mt,sd,ks&uList=

that's what I had

One of the reasons Obama has done well is that he has refused to write off any state. Hillary ran an old-fashioned campaign, concentrating on just a few she needed.

This was actually all started by Dean four years ago -- he began a policy of making sure there was a democratic presence in every state, even the really red ones, which had not been done before. (In fact, Clintons people really worked against him all those years, saying it was a waste in money). Dean knew that to win the big elections, you have to win the little ones first. Even just winning state representative seats was important, because the more democrats in office, the easier it is to raise more money and promote the Presidential candidates in those states and so on.

Obama has continued this, having huge voter registration drives in every state and meeting with all those little democratic guys in these states. And they're all in his favor now.

So I really do see that the democrats have nowhere to go but up, and should do better than expected this year.

Keeping this momentum going into the election day, Obama will win by a landslide.

Even some southern states (LA, MS and SC) which are traditionally Republican can switch to Democratic given Obama's crossover appeal and a much stronger and mobilized African-American voters than 2004.

I was for Dean for president and have been very impressed with his role at the DNC. As we've seen, his 50 state strategy has paid off in spades, electing Democrats in formerly hard red districts. By that measure, it would seem that all bets are off on any red states. But we'll see how it plays out.

what Obama wins LA but losses Nevada??

Hilary would have just picked Florida and Ohio and she could have won the election if she won those.

I believe it would go to the House of Representatives for a vote.

And we know how that would turn out.

Yes I think the Democrats could win a few more Representatives...

What about Senators?? It seems that the democrats will hold on to what they have however a lot of republicans are retiring.

Call me crazy, but I think Senators could break 60-40 for Dems, which would be huge to get bills passed un-filibustered.

The black populace is going to be a lot more mobilized this time and Louisiana has every incentive to go against the status quo. Which actually means in theory Republicans at the local level and for Congress, but not for the presidency. I could see it happen.