Obamas 116 super delegates away from clinching the nomination; lets see if he can get them.

Uhmm you mean 306? unless you are counting unwon delegates?

114*

No, Obama has 236 of em right now. If he gets up to 350, the nomination is no doubt his. Realistically he would only need about 325-330.

The Superdelegate total for both Obama and Clinton increases and decreases very often. They can change from being decided, to switching sides, to simply not backing either of them again whenever they want. It's something that is impossible to calculate until the end.

That is the level where not enough uncommitted superdelegates remain for Hillary to win the nomination by convention vote.

I'm not familiar with that candidacy.

I thought you watched the debates?

I forgot to mention Biden, who was also running for President.

2008Democratic Party Presidential Primaries

If this is race based on experience, then we need a do over, because we failed to push forth the two options with the most experience.

Oh. That Dodd. I was on a tangent.

Why isn't he the candidate? Who knows. Poor campaign management? It's all about marketing.

I don't think poor marketing is the reason, but I am not real interested in furthering this discussion.

So I'm going to go back to reading the news.

And you still would have run a better campaign than Dodd.

ZING!

HIllary campaigns has been pretty a train wreck, when you start being the clear front runner and are ending fighting for your political life, it doesn't scream well oiled machine.

Let's be honest, Dodd and the others never had a chance because they aren't the rock start of the Democratic party and their last name isn't Clinton.

The DMC certainly pimped Obama like he was the newest Hollywood starlet, and Hillary is a senator and married to a very popular former President.

Pick to other random senators, one black male and one white female and who is left standing now would look mighty different.

It helps when the general public already knows who are you.

Poor marketing plus his last name isn't Clinton. Because yeah, her campaign is a train wreck in a lot of ways.

Obama really was able to market himself, I think his campaign sold him well. I just don't like his positions on some issues and other things but, as a campaign, he's not done a bad job. He was able to get out there in front of people and while Dodd et al participated in the debates they were disadvantaged to begin with.

I think, just like in the RNC race there were frontrunners to begin with. McCain because he is a popular senator and has had a well organized bid before. Romney because...well I don't know why but somehow he got out there and he was everywhere and such.

Just my hypothesis, I really could be dead wrong.

Which is a part of marketing, they had their names out there. Hilary's bid was rumored long before it occurred.

I'm not even sure where Obama came from (as far as how his campaign was built) because honestly I wasn't as read up last summer during the start of campaigning.

Yeah, it was bound to happen, but I don't think Obama was that well known before the DNC. So, he's about as fresh a face as you can get. I guess to put it in a clear way, he built his own celebrity, which is certainly a testament to him.

That being said, I think I view these two candidates differently than most of you guys do. The front-runner before the elections has rearely gone on to win, actually (think Dean's campaign. That one crashed in, like, two seconds), and Clinton has done a surprisingly good job hanging in there. If there was one thing I would have done differently in her shoes, its avoid Iowa altogether and, like McCain, just have begun with a big focus on New Hampshire. That way I would have won there by more than 2 small points, people wouldn't have even been paying attention to Iowa as a "show-down" place, and everything would have proceeded smoothly.

But she, and he, have both been way ahead of the learning curve. Each time someone has come up with something that should have finished the other off, the other has managed to change themselves, their image, etc., and stay alive. They are both serious money-making machines that will definately out-raise McCain in the general. They both are well aware of who they need to make in-roads of appealing to, and will start ona fresh slate trying to do that in the generals. Frankly, I think they would both beat McCain as long as they stick to very clearly pronouncing their differences with his platform, and if they sit down and devise an image that makes them seem more fiscally experienced than him. Economy is a biggie, and McCain isn't known for it. They should be playing up his conservative "family values," stuff too. You'll see how quick women would vote for the pro-choice candidate.

I also like this prolonged battle now that I think about it. One in every seven PA voters was newly registered. That is going to be a lot more individuals who can conveniently vote (without having to worry about still registering) in the generals. This has been consistent in all the states (massive turn-outs, new registrations, mobilized groups) and will now continue to happen in upcoming elections. That is fantastic because it means the Democratic party will not be sitting around come the end of the year panicking that they don't have the raw, registered numbers for a win. Trying to get out the vote is a lot easier when everyone has already been registered in advance, and just has to show up.

I think he built his own celebrity, particularly in Illinois, but since 2004 DNC clearly the Democrats having been pimping this celebrity.

I remember during 2006 mid term elections, we had a close race here b/w a Dem and Rep, and the brought out Hillary, Obama, to help rally support.

I like HIllary a lot more then her campaign, i think Penn wasn't really on the ball. He kept his day job.

And little things that happened along the way turned me off, and I can understand if they didn't do so with other people, but she lost me around December.

And if HIllary ends as the nominee at least there will finally be a women on a Presidental ticket I actually like, because I've never liked Ferraro.

Some new polls (lets make this the Indiana and North Carolina thread maybe?)

SurveyUSAIndiana - Clinton 52, Obama 43


PPP (D) North Carolina - Obama 51, Clinton 39

Hopefully her 9 point lead over Obama in Indiana stays strong. The last few polls were showing Obama up around 5, so it's a good sign since she has been running an Obama type groud operation in Indiana, which she did not do in many early states. And I'm sure having GOV. Evan Bayh on her side, possibly the most popular Democrat in Indiana's history, isn't hurting either.

And the North Carolina poll is encouraging since they say Obama lead had ranged from 18-25 in the last 5 polls (before PA I think). And the mention the reason for this being the White Vote. Before PA, he was just 5 points away from Clinton with the demographic, but now Clinton leads 56-35. Again, hopefully it stays strong with just one week left.

If this goes to the convention, the GOV's of all these states, OH, PA, IN, and whatever possible swing state GOV endorsements Clinton has received (OH and PA being the biggest ones) need to come together and convince the pledged delegates, along with the super delegates, they guarentee a Clinton victory in their state come NOV. Indiana will probably vote McCain, but it could turn into a swing state if Evan Bayh becomes very active in the state.

Dean has come out pretty strongly to tell Clinton and Obama that one needs to bow out after the last primary (in June) and ...as much as I'd like to see that happen, I think the OC are just too damn strong willed of candidates to bow out gracefully. I think this one is going to be dirty (err dirtier than it already is).

Dean's gonna have to deal. Especially if Hillary wins Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia and Puerto Rico. And also, if Obama wins Oregon, South Dakota, North Carolina and Montana.

If I was either of those candidates in that situation, I wouldn't drop. I'm just speaking about my own feelings here, mind you, but if I was in either of their shoes and had come this far, I'd think it was the other guy/gal that had to go.

If Dean really wanted this decided he would tell the superdels to shut up already and stop whining about how the supers should pick and actually just get around to picking who they want in office. That would finally decide it.

Nothing irritates me more than the superdelegates on either side whining the arguement that would enable their preferred choice. Obama's intended supers argue that all supers should just vote with the pledged deleagtes. Hillary's intended supers argue that all supers should just vote on electability. These are thinly cloaked statements saying, respectively, vote for Obama and vote for Hillary. Why don't they just get around to voting their choice and call it a day. The decision would be made then.

That's a lot of IFs though.

I would say the 4/4 split is the most likely of all outcomes.

I would say a 5/3 is probably even more likely (With Obama taking Indiana).

I would strongly disagree. I think 4/4 with Hillary taking Indiana is far more likely.