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 What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote? 
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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
Jim Halpert wrote:
Arkansas is important :yes:



Yes, Clinton can paint it Blue. :thumbsup:

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Fri Apr 25, 2008 10:09 pm
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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
Groucho wrote:
Angela Merkel wrote:
Hillary didn't have a problem with caucuses until she lost them. She never had a problem with anything until she lost. She didn't have a problem with "disenfranchising" Florida and Michigan until she lost elsewhere. If you want an honest opinion, this is one of the biggest reasons I hate her as a human being.


Thanks for saying that so I don't have to.

The bottom line is that the rules were established long ago. Delegates are more important than votes, and Michigan and Florida won't count. She knew the rules before she went in.

Yes rules are rules and neither candidate is going to get enough delegates to get the noms so now the super delegates are going to have to make decisions and while the delegates from FL and MI do not count (though I think FL should) the fact remains that super delegates can turn to the popular vote as well. there si no twisting or turning of rules here it is just fact and if you do not like it well tough.
The fact is "technically" she leads the popular vote with MI and FL though really she is behind when the uncommitted is counted towards Obama although one would figure a number of the uncommitted votes went for Edwards(Edwards and Obama were the only two candidates not on the ballot in MI). There si a rule that the delegates shouldn't count there si no rule the popular vote shouldn't be considered.

One could even criticize the fact that Obama or Edwards didn't have the foresight to add their name to MI. And Edwards si the true candidate I supported this election.

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Fri Apr 25, 2008 10:39 pm
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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
Both Edwards and Obama had their names on the Michigan ballot, and removed themselves as an act of solidarity with the Democratic Party. Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, lied and said she wouldn't bother with the effort because Michigan "won't count anyway."

There's no foresight involved. Just honesty and the lack thereof. Edwards is an honest man; too bad honesty fares so poorly against the House of Clinton.

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Sat Apr 26, 2008 12:16 am
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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
KidRock69x wrote:
Gulli wrote:
Angela Merkel wrote:
Winner-take-all is inherently unfair. I have the same opinion of the electoral college.


Proportional Representation would be interesting in the USA. Never going to happen though.

Thank god. I don't want 1-2 communist party or NAZI party members of Congress. Then watching in annoyance as they sit on some piss-ant committee just so they would side with a larger party. I enjoy our first past the post system. It forces the parties to be less radical than they would otherwise like, and this is from someone who is fairly radical.


Communists's or Nazi's didn't get seats at us with it. :)

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Sat Apr 26, 2008 6:25 am
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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
KidRock96x wrote:
Thank god. I don't want 1-2 communist party or NAZI party members of Congress. Then watching in annoyance as they sit on some piss-ant committee just so they would side with a larger party. I enjoy our first past the post system. It forces the parties to be less radical than they would otherwise like, and this is from someone who is fairly radical.


We have proportional representation, but a party must receive at least 5% of the nationwide popular vote to be seated in parliament. The end result being that there are currently five parties in parliament. There is a similar system in many other European countries, and it works pretty well as far as I can tell.

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Sat Apr 26, 2008 7:43 am
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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
Shad wrote:

We have proportional representation, but a party must receive at least 5% of the nationwide popular vote to be seated in parliament. The end result being that there are currently five parties in parliament. There is a similar system in many other European countries, and it works pretty well as far as I can tell.


Israel has a similar system, and its downright terrible.


Sat Apr 26, 2008 12:27 pm
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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
Dolcinea wrote:
Shad wrote:

We have proportional representation, but a party must receive at least 5% of the nationwide popular vote to be seated in parliament. The end result being that there are currently five parties in parliament. There is a similar system in many other European countries, and it works pretty well as far as I can tell.


Israel has a similar system, and its downright terrible.


Yes but Israel has a shedload of different parties getting little slices of the vote.

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Sat Apr 26, 2008 12:30 pm
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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
Gulli wrote:
Dolcinea wrote:

Israel has a similar system, and its downright terrible.


Yes but Israel has a shedload of different parties getting little slices of the vote.


I know! And because of that, you can do something like only command ten percent of the seats and still run the entire country as though you were a simple majority.

That's what the really, really, conservative religious party does, because its the only one that can mobilize a block vote consistently. That's why we had those goddamn yeshivas in occupied territory for so long when they should have never been there in the first place, and why the rest of the world assumes most Israelis support the really bad agenda/politics of the government.

My parents freaking love the two party system. Whenever the elections come around here, someone always manages to poke fun at the chaos that is the "thirty-four" party system in Israel.


Sat Apr 26, 2008 1:08 pm
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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
Angela Merkel wrote:
Both Edwards and Obama had their names on the Michigan ballot, and removed themselves as an act of solidarity with the Democratic Party. Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, lied and said she wouldn't bother with the effort because Michigan "won't count anyway."

There's no foresight involved. Just honesty and the lack thereof. Edwards is an honest man; too bad honesty fares so poorly against the House of Clinton.

Well lets get some facts straight. I didn't actually know they had removed there names from the primaries. However they both had groups that had campaigned to get people to vote uncommitted. The "won't count anyway" if I recall was said after the primary. No one had to remove their name from the ballot they chose too and I think it was dum move on Edwards part to do so.

So here we are today and neither candidate has whats necessary with everything leaning in favor Obama who is very likely to be the nominee but not certain. For me the only acceptable way for Hillary to become nominee is if she wins Indiana, Montana,PR, WV, Kentucky, Oregon, and South Dakota while keeping NC within 5% while making significant gains in popular vote. That is a very lofty goal but not an unquestionable one.

Finally I am not tied and towed to what Hillary says I disagree with a lot and at its core I think that popular votes for MI should be counted with the uncommited vote going towards Obama(which is generous there is no doubt a large number of Edwards votes in there which would of gone either way by now) and FL when looking at the popular vote and only for that purpose. I do think delegates from FL should count but similiar to the republicans where only half are seated. For you Obama supporters you needn't worry it wouldn't add many delegates to Clintons count and in no way threatens anything and if it were to then the race would be within a half dozen or so delegates anyways.

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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
She won't win Montana, South Dakota, and Oregon. They're as impossible for her as Pennsylvania was for Obama. North Carolina won't be that close by virtue of the large black population alone.

Counting Michigan's uncommitted votes toward Obama, he once again has a large popular vote lead.

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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
Angela Merkel wrote:
Counting Michigan's uncommitted votes toward Obama, he once again has a large popular vote lead.


Except who knows if those all would go to him? Without a redo...I think that's kind of a leap of faith but I don't know.

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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
Angela Merkel wrote:
She won't win Montana, South Dakota, and Oregon. They're as impossible for her as Pennsylvania was for Obama. North Carolina won't be that close by virtue of the large black population alone.

Counting Michigan's uncommitted votes toward Obama, he once again has a large popular vote lead.



Obama does not equal uncommited. That 40% would have roughly been split between Obama and Edwards. I think Edwards would have performed better than some may have expected since he would have connected better to the lower-class votes than Obama has been doing. And MI definitely has their fair share of lower-class voters. MI is a mess, and re-do there should have happened. Who cares who won or lost, the state and the DNC should have done everything in their power to force a re-do no matter what Obama or Clinton said. I don't think the delegates should be seated, but the popular vote should be. But it's just too hard to find a solution since Obama and Edwards had thier names removed. Which I wouldn't have done no matter the rules of the DNC. If I knew people wanted to vote for me, I would have left it on. Even if that state may ultimately be excluded. It really leaves room for the GOP to turn MI into a swing state. And if FL isn't counted in anyway, it's basically a guarenteed REP victory. It's too important to risk a lose there.

What is the rule in those states with the popular vote anyway? I've only read they were stripped of their delegates. Nothing about the actual vote.

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Sat Apr 26, 2008 5:58 pm
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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
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The Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee will meet on Saturday, May 31 in Washington, D.C., to consider whether the DNC panel exceeded its authority when it stripped Florida and Michigan of all of its delegates for holding their primaries before Feb. 5th, 2008.

The Michigan and Florida challenges are trying to get all of the superdelegates plus half of the two states' pledged delegates seated at this summer's Democratic National Convention.

The challenges, which will be watched closely by the Democratic presidential candidates, do not stipulate how the pledged delegates should be split between Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., and Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y.

Getting the Florida and Michigan delegations seated is a top priority for Clinton not only for the additional delegates it could yield but also as a way of getting more superdelegates to pay attention to the votes she garnered in the two states when assessing which candidate has more popular support.


http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar ... to-we.html

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“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
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Sat Apr 26, 2008 6:06 pm
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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
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In an interview set to appear in Saturday's Financial Times, Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean says that he thinks the Democratic race for president will come down to superdelegates' perception of electability.

"I think the race is going to come down to the perception in the last six or eight races of who the best opponent for McCain will be. I do not think in the long run it will come down to the popular vote or anything else," said Dean.



http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar ... ace-c.html


I actually agree with Dean (who I don't like much) since neither of them will have enough delegates to win the nomination. I think people are overlooking this and going straight to who is leading. It's exactly what many undecided SuperDelegates say in interviews on CNN, FOX, etc. Electability. The topic Clinton has been going all out on Obama on.

Both Obama and Clinton (in polls) perform very well against McCain (they are either a few points down, tied, or a few points up) in every single poll. So the general polls won't tell much, so you have to look at the states and how each perform agaisnt McCain now in my opinion. And there's only about a dozen states that they need to look at.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sat Apr 26, 2008 6:11 pm
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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
Hillary does poorly with independents and has much higher negatives than Obama so when he says electability he's codedly saying Obama. I wouldn't side with Dean if you're for Clinton.

The Clintons presided over the worst era ever for the democratic party. They went from majority to obscurity on the Clintons' watch. Whether that was their fault or not is academic, people get credit and blame for what they preside over. The last thing the super delegates want is any chance of going back to that so it would take a lot for them to side with Hillary, more than just her having a little more of the popular vote count. Obama's campaign would have to implode in some unforseen way.

The idea that this is a neck and neck race going down to the wire is a fabrication of tv networks who want to get ratings. It has pretty much been over since Wisconsin barring some new out of left field bombshell.

I'm not saying she should get out of the race but if she's going to stay in, she should stop smearing the 99% likely democratic nominee and doing McCain's work for him.


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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
The United States has fifty states. Ohio and Pennsylvania do not have larger-than-average balls. Clinton depends on those two states much more due to her weakness elsewhere; Obama has more creative ways of winning.

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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
Archie Gates wrote:
Hillary does poorly with independents and has much higher negatives than Obama so when he says electability he's codedly saying Obama. I wouldn't side with Dean if you're for Clinton.

The Clintons presided over the worst era ever for the democratic party. They went from majority to obscurity on the Clintons' watch. Whether that was their fault or not is academic, people get credit and blame for what they preside over. The last thing the super delegates want is any chance of going back to that so it would take a lot for them to side with Hillary, more than just her having a little more of the popular vote count. Obama's campaign would have to implode in some unforseen way.

The idea that this is a neck and neck race going down to the wire is a fabrication of tv networks who want to get ratings. It has pretty much been over since Wisconsin barring some new out of left field bombshell.

I'm not saying she should get out of the race but if she's going to stay in, she should stop smearing the 99% likely democratic nominee and doing McCain's work for him.



Independents are very important yes, but not as important as keeping the core voters of your party on your side. And the core of the DEM party has been voting for Hillary Clinton, outside of Blacks for obvious reasons.

McCain is also popular with indepedents, and the independent vote would probably be mostly split between him and Obama. It probably wouldn't give either of them an edge overall. What Obama risks losing is some of the white vote (yes, Hillary would lose here too, but she has performed better here than Obama), the latino vote (it would be crucial in a state like FL), older voters (McCain and Clinton would probably split this group in most states, but McCain would win the majority in almost all the states if he goes against Obama. And older voters are a sure bet to turn out in big numbers, they always do. And even with this huge surge of young voters for Obama, older voters are still turning up in larger numbers. Having this group on your side gives you a big advantage is states like PA and FL. Most older voters don't like the idea of change.), and he would lose some of the women vote (nothing too major, but it's clear Clinton would draw more women, and women turnout in elections more than men do). These are the reasons for why Obama has won no Big Diverse state, outside of his own state. He doesn't have much appeal to the various voting groups, and he loses many core Democratic demographics.

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“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sat Apr 26, 2008 7:43 pm
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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
Angela Merkel wrote:
She won't win Montana, South Dakota, and Oregon. They're as impossible for her as Pennsylvania was for Obama. North Carolina won't be that close by virtue of the large black population alone.

I am willing to bet a Ban Bet on South Dakota. Obama won the near by states but they were caucuses. I don't think Clinton would even have to campaign that much in South Dakota to win. Oregon is the state that you may be the most right about unlike you I do think she could win that.It is a state that holds a lot of independents who may so that should make it a tight race. You are right she won't be within 5% in NC most likely but that is what she should strive for. It is the largest chunk of delegates with the largest population left so she would need to keep that as close as possible. Oregon and Montana are questionable but I think Montana will be easier for Clinton than Oregon where she will need to campaign hard.

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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
redspear wrote:
Angela Merkel wrote:
She won't win Montana, South Dakota, and Oregon. They're as impossible for her as Pennsylvania was for Obama. North Carolina won't be that close by virtue of the large black population alone.

I am willing to bet a Ban Bet on South Dakota. Obama won the near by states but they were caucuses. I don't think Clinton would even have to campaign that much in South Dakota to win. Oregon is the state that you may be the most right about unlike you I do think she could win that.It is a state that holds a lot of independents who may so that should make it a tight race. You are right she won't be within 5% in NC most likely but that is what she should strive for. It is the largest chunk of delegates with the largest population left so she would need to keep that as close as possible. Oregon and Montana are questionable but I think Montana will be easier for Clinton than Oregon where she will need to campaign hard.


Oregon is a closed primary, so only registered Democrats will be able to vote. Same with South Dakota and Kentucky.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
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Sat Apr 26, 2008 8:49 pm
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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
Ericka wrote:
redspear wrote:
Angela Merkel wrote:
She won't win Montana, South Dakota, and Oregon. They're as impossible for her as Pennsylvania was for Obama. North Carolina won't be that close by virtue of the large black population alone.

I am willing to bet a Ban Bet on South Dakota. Obama won the near by states but they were caucuses. I don't think Clinton would even have to campaign that much in South Dakota to win. Oregon is the state that you may be the most right about unlike you I do think she could win that.It is a state that holds a lot of independents who may so that should make it a tight race. You are right she won't be within 5% in NC most likely but that is what she should strive for. It is the largest chunk of delegates with the largest population left so she would need to keep that as close as possible. Oregon and Montana are questionable but I think Montana will be easier for Clinton than Oregon where she will need to campaign hard.


Oregon is a closed primary, so only registered Democrats will be able to vote. Same with South Dakota and Kentucky.

Yes but still I think Oregon may be pretty tough Hillary but I would call it far from a long shot. Many democrats in Oregon are very independent minded and one thing I think that has worked against Clinton so far is the whole Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton(again?) mentality. To be honest I can understand that logic and the feeling that someone who is not Clinton would bring a different administration. It is something I disagree with but I can understand it.

However I do think there is a disconnect between primaries and caucuses I do not disregard one more than the other but I consider them to gauge different things.

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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
redspear wrote:
Ericka wrote:
redspear wrote:
Angela Merkel wrote:
She won't win Montana, South Dakota, and Oregon. They're as impossible for her as Pennsylvania was for Obama. North Carolina won't be that close by virtue of the large black population alone.

I am willing to bet a Ban Bet on South Dakota. Obama won the near by states but they were caucuses. I don't think Clinton would even have to campaign that much in South Dakota to win. Oregon is the state that you may be the most right about unlike you I do think she could win that.It is a state that holds a lot of independents who may so that should make it a tight race. You are right she won't be within 5% in NC most likely but that is what she should strive for. It is the largest chunk of delegates with the largest population left so she would need to keep that as close as possible. Oregon and Montana are questionable but I think Montana will be easier for Clinton than Oregon where she will need to campaign hard.


Oregon is a closed primary, so only registered Democrats will be able to vote. Same with South Dakota and Kentucky.

Yes but still I think Oregon may be pretty tough Hillary but I would call it far from a long shot. Many democrats in Oregon are very independent minded and one thing I think that has worked against Clinton so far is the whole Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton(again?) mentality. To be honest I can understand that logic and the feeling that someone who is not Clinton would bring a different administration. It is something I disagree with but I can understand it.

However I do think there is a disconnect between primaries and caucuses I do not disregard one more than the other but I consider them to gauge different things.



A caucus excludes far too many people. Many aren't able to sit in a school gym for hours deciding who to side with. This is especially true for many of Hillary Clinton's core voting groups. A 90 year old woman may not be able to stay out for hours while people try to persuade each other their candidate is better in a gym or someone's basement. And a stay at home mother may not want to take her kids to such a thing for hours and hours. And many working-class voters simply cannot get off work for several hours. 1. They can't affored it. 2. Thier boss won't let them clockout for that long.

In a primary, people can find a way to the polls. You can go on your lunch break, something you couldnt do in caucuses. Your boss may allow their workers to leave one or two at a time for half an hour or so, so that they can go vote, again, something that isn't likely in caucuses since they take way too long. There are many flaws in these states. A cauces isnt an election at all.

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Sat Apr 26, 2008 9:12 pm
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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
Ericka wrote:
A cauces isnt an election at all.


But them's the rules. I prefer primaries myself but you know, the time to complain about it and change it is between elections, not after you lose the caucuses.

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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
Groucho wrote:
Ericka wrote:
A cauces isnt an election at all.


But them's the rules. I prefer primaries myself but you know, the time to complain about it and change it is between elections, not after you lose the caucuses.


I'm not. But she can make the case that winning tons of caucuses doesn't neccessarily mean you will do well in a general election. Texas is a great example here since it had both. In the general election, Clinton would have won. But since caucuses exclude too many people, the results do not reflect who the voters of the state voted for.

If Iowa had been a primary, you can bet Obama would have lost, and Edwards probably would have won a narrow victory over Hillary Clinton, and Obama would have quickly faded away since the spotlight wouldnt have been on him, and the black community wouldn't have swarmed to him like they did after he won the Iowa Caucus. If the difference between a Caucus and a Primary has such a significant difference on who wins the state, there is a problem somewhere. Before that win, Clinton was winning the black support. A Caucus is a terrible way to judge how a candidate will perform in a general election.

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Sat Apr 26, 2008 10:32 pm
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
Ericka wrote:
Groucho wrote:
Ericka wrote:
A cauces isnt an election at all.


But them's the rules. I prefer primaries myself but you know, the time to complain about it and change it is between elections, not after you lose the caucuses.


I'm not. But she can make the case that winning tons of caucuses doesn't neccessarily mean you will do well in a general election. Texas is a great example here since it had both. In the general election, Clinton would have won. But since caucuses exclude too many people, the results do not reflect who the voters of the state voted for.

If Iowa had been a primary, you can bet Obama would have lost, and Edwards probably would have won a narrow victory over Hillary Clinton, and Obama would have quickly faded away since the spotlight wouldnt have been on him, and the black community wouldn't have swarmed to him like they did after he won the Iowa Caucus. If the difference between a Caucus and a Primary has such a significant difference on who wins the state, there is a problem somewhere. Before that win, Clinton was winning the black support. A Caucus is a terrible way to judge how a candidate will perform in a general election.


And if a frog had wings...

Seriously, this makes for an interesting discussion but it's kind of academic because those are the rules of the game. I tend to agree and wish all states used a primary and had them arranged in a way that certain states do not dominate the process the way they do now. But that's not the hand we were dealt.

I might point out that in states where independents are allowed to vote, Obama does much better. They were not in PA. The polls seem to show that Obama does much better with independents and weak Republicans, so it seems to me that he should do better in the general election than she would, because she will appeal basically only to democrats.

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Sat Apr 26, 2008 10:50 pm
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Post Re: What will happen if Hillary wins the popular vote?
Quote:
Nevada GOP's state convention shut down early
Posted: 05:16 PM ET

Rep. Ron Paul addressed the Nevada Republican Party's convention Saturday.

RENO, Nevada (AP) — Outmaneuvered by raucous Ron Paul supporters, Nevada Republican Party leaders abruptly shut down their state convention and now must resume the event to complete a list of 31 delegates to the GOP national convention.

Outnumbered supporters of expected Republican presidential nominee John McCain faced off Saturday against well-organized Paul supporters. A large share of the more than 1,300 state convention delegates enabled Paul supporters to get a rule change positioning them for more national convention delegate slots than expected.

"I've seen factions walk out. I've never seen a party walk out," said Jeff Greenspan, regional coordinator for the Paul campaign.

Delegates cheered earlier in the day as former presidential hopeful Mitt Romney urged support for McCain. Later, though, Paul got even louder applause as he delivered his message of individual freedom and fiscal responsibility.

State Sen. Bob Beers, the convention chairman, was booed loudly as he called for a recess Saturday evening. He said that the party's rental contract for a big meeting room at a Reno hotel-casino had expired and there was too much work left to complete.

State GOP Chairwoman Sue Lowden said the rules change wasn't anticipated. She denied any anti-Paul bias, saying expected slates of national delegates were prepared through a fair and open process by the convention's nominations committee and the party thought the convention would accept them.



Speaking of caucuses and rules it is sometimes good to look at the other side of things.

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Sun Apr 27, 2008 5:26 pm
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