That hasn't been the case for most of this campaign. I've staffed the Obama campaign in multiple states, and we already had a worse sign shortage. In Las Cruces, NM, for example, Hillary out-signed us at least ten to one. We had a visibility deficit in Nevada and Texas as well, and in Mississippi neither campaign had much.

Na, that can't be right. I'm never wrong

5.4

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... y-240.html

Something that hasn't been brought up in PA, is that the state has many Catholic voters. And apparently they are favoring Hillary. Hopefully the Pope's Visit will bring them out in full force. Yes, I know the Pope didn't say anything political, but just the awareness of it all could boost the Catholic turnout.

Also, Obama has gone very negative over the past day or two. More negative than he has been in the past. We'll see if that plays a role. And thankfully McCain is hitting back on him over this as well as Clinton.

EDIT: Excel, that was basically the avg. for her to win in OH too.

Apparently the Clinton people released that poll showing her 11 points ahead. That was really stupid. They have been trying to lower the bar and claim she will win by about 5 - 6 points (which seems likely). If she doesn't get an 11 point victory now, it will look like a loss.

You always want to set the bar low!

I should note, of course, that four weeks ago she was ahead by about 20 points in most polls. I should also point out that the polls have been notoriously unreliable this year, so I don't put much faith in them, even when they support my candidate!

By the way, last night Bill Clinton spoke in my area again (up in Mt. Pocono, near my law office) and only 200 people showed up!

http://www.thepennsylvaniaprimary.com/a ... /804210310

Finally, the latest poll from SurveyUSA is out, the one I've been waiting for since they've been the most accurate this year, given the most detailed crosstabs, and have shown 14 points lead for Clinton the past couple of weeks even though the gap was shrinking in the other polls. And this latest poll finally showed a shrinking gap from their perspective as well, to 6% (50-44).

Right now I'm predicting a 9 points win by Hillary. The late deciders have normally gone to her since she has the name recognition and is the "safer" choice. There is an average of 9% undecided voters so far, so a 2-1 split for Clinton would give her 3 more points in addition to the 6 points average she is enjoying now.

To me, 10% is the break-even point. It will dictate the choice of words and the tone in the media coverage (double-digit and single-digit simply sound different psychologically).

Eh if she wins by 7% of more she's good, anything unders not good both statistically with delegates and popular vote, or for public relations At some point itll get hard to ignore how her huge leads keep vanishing.

That said, realistically she really needs a 10% win otherwise when she loses NC by atleast that amount, its gonna look realllly bad "she barrowly won Penn, now gets clobbered in North Carolina, why is she still here?".



I would start with Ohio 10%, factor in Bosnia, and I out it at about 4-5% win for Hilldog tomorrow.

Btw going negative is what put him ahead on super tuesday. if he can do it in small doses like he did then, it can be extremely effective. When you just endlessly insult ala Hillary its a huge turn off

Going negative and trying to cripple his opponent is what his campaign is against though.
Also, the Clinton Campaign has said that Drudge Report is bogus.

Suffolk released a poll showing her up 10. Their last poll in OH had her up by 12.
And InsiderAdvatage released their poll having her up 10. Though I can't find a OH poll by them, just a TX one which they had her up by 5. But SurveryUSA seem to be the most accurate, though there's a few times they are off, like having Obama up 2 in TX, but it wasn't anything major.

I'm seeing a 8% Clinton win given present data.

The only fly in the ointment for that prediction is... the PPP poll. The one that has Obama up three. PPP is an exceptional pollster that nailed South Carolina and Wisconsin when nobody else did. Either this is their first big mistake of the season, or everybody else is wrong again.

She'll win by a lot.

- She has the establishment behind her, the old political machine.
- She has a state that has a large part of it that is basically like Alabama, as Carville called it. Tons of rednecks, though for some reason our society doesn't call them rednecks if they live in the northeast.
- She has her husband's former communications director helping her out in a major debate.
- And she has a core set of supporters who have no qualms about her using Karl Rove style tactics in a primary.

it just means itll be close.

Probably the difference between a 10-point loss and an 8-point loss. Here's to hoping PPP is right.

Some exit poll numbers:

First-time voters: Obama 60-38
Voters who decided in the last week: Clinton 58-42
Blacks: Obama 92-8
Age 65+: Clinton 61-38
Economy as the top issue (55%): Clinton 56-43
Gun owners: Clinton 58-42
Attend church at least once a week: Clinton 59-41

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/

thatd be a good idea.