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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm
Posts: 37162
Location: The Graveyard
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 Re: Predict Pennsylvania A little math here.
There are 4.2M Registered Democrats in Pennsylvania. Last time they voted, the turnout was about 20%, and there are some reports suggesting turnout could hit 50% or more.
So, lets see how this could go, popular vote wise from probably the max one candidate can do, and least the other can do.
50% turnout
60-40 (Clinton), 1,260,000 - 840,000 (420,000 vote difference)
58-42 (Clinton), 1,220,000 - 880,000 (340,000 vote difference)
56-44 (Clinton), 1,175,000 - 925,000 (250,000 vote difference)
55-45 (Clinton), 1,155,000 - 945,000 (210,000 vote difference)
54-46 (Clinton), 1,135,000 - 965,000 (170,000 vote difference)
53-47 (Clinton), 1,115,000 - 985,000 (130,000 vote difference)
52-48 (Clinton), 1,095,000 - 1,005,000 (90,000 vote difference)
51-49 (Clinton), 1,070,000 - 1,060,000 (10,000 vote difference)
55% turnout
60-40 (Clinton), 1,380,000 - 920,000 (460,000 vote difference)
58-42 (Clinton), 1,335,000 - 960,000 (370,000 vote difference)
56-44 (Clinton), 1,290,000 - 1,010,000 (280,000 vote difference)
55-45 (Clinton), 1,265,000 - 1,035,000 (230,000 vote difference)
54-46 (Clinton), 1,240,000 - 1,060,000 (180,000 vote difference)
53-47 (Clinton), 1,210,000 - 1,090,000 (120,000 vote difference)
52-48 (Clinton), 1,195,000 - 1,105,000 (90,000 vote difference)
51-49 (Clinton), 1,075,000 - 1,125,000 (50,000 vote difference)
60% turnout
60-40 (Clinton), 1,510,000 - 1,010,000 (500,000 vote difference)
58-42 (Clinton), 1,460,000 - 1,060,000 (400,000 vote difference)
56-44 (Clinton), 1,410,000 - 1,110,000 (300,000 vote difference)
55-45 (Clinton), 1,385,000 - 1,135,000 (250,000 vote difference)
54-46 (Clinton), 1,360,000 - 1,160,000 (200,000 vote difference)
53-47 (Clinton), 1,335,000 - 1,185,000 (150,000 vote difference)
52-48 (Clinton), 1,310,000 - 1,210,000 (100,000 vote difference)
51-49 (Clinton), 1,285,000 - 1,235,000 (50,000 vote difference)
Of course, if Obama does win, just swap his name with Clinton's and that's how many votes (approx) he will gain based on a 50%, 55%, and 60% turnout today.
Obama is currenty ahead by 715,000 - 720,000 excluding MI and FL.
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