depends by how much she won.

big margin = keep fighting
small margin = quit

just quit.

I'd stay for another couple of weeks until seeing myself losing NC and Indiana.

My number one beef with Obama supporters has been she should drop out of the race. So it is refreshing to see something I agree with. If it is an Ohio like win she should stay if it is more like Texas she should leave. I think it is likely she will win the state but IMO it opinion the win needs to be over 5% and should be more like 10% to stay in the race.
Conversely she also needs to win Indiana and West Virginia to stay in the race. She needs to be within 3% in NC a state I do not think she will win.

If she only takes Pennsylvania by under 5% it would be statistically irrelevantly and it wouldn't really help her popular vote count nor really add to her pledged delegate count. It would also mean that she lost too much ground in a state that was for Hillary very strongly.

If it's by less than 5%, probably drop out since arguing she does better than Obama does in OH, FL, and PA will be weakened due to the small PA win. If it's a win similar to OH or NJ (the neighboring states, she won both by 10%), then obviously stay in the race.

Winning PA by around 10% should be enough for her to win in Indiana also (the polls there are very tight), so the extra boost should help there. And it should help her some in NC, and maybe bring Obama's lead there down from roughly 15 points to high single digits (remember, it is a primary, not a caucus). She can't afford to lost both North Carolina and Indiana on May 6th, winning one of them (Indiana being likely if she wins PA) should be enough to keep going since she'll win here in West Virginia and Kentucky with ease. The last polls showed her up over 30 points in them, so a big win there since they aren't too far away should be assured.

She's got little to no chance of winning NC. All of the deep south states have gone to Obama for various reasons, most importantly that until his comments this past week he connected well with the more poor voters here (at least in my opinion).

I'm not trying to pull the race card here but I do think his race has allowed him some victory as well, with as much as 90% of the black vote here in Georgia going to him (it was 80 or 90% I think) you have to understand there is some amount of racial feeling in the voting patterns.

The Clinton campaign isn't looking at Pledged Delegates at all now. They are working on weaking Obama to make him seem unelectable, and to show her strength agains't McCain in PA, OH, and FL. In the match-up polls, both Obama and Clinton beat McCain in PA, but Clinton wins by a little more. McCain kills Obama in OH and FL, but Clinton beats McCain in OH by a wide margin and FL is roughly a tie between them. Remember, no REP has ever been elected if they lost OH. She CAN beat him in OH. Showing that she is more electable is the Clinton Campaigns main goal right now, and is what they are using when they contact the Super Delegates.

Well I know they are not looking at winning the pledged delegates to win but I have to believe they are looking at narrowing that lead down while working on gaining in the popular vote at teh same time.

to the previous quote I did not say she would or have to win NC I said she has to cut down Obamas lead and come within 3-5 percent there.

Clinton has down better with the rural poor overall. Yes Race has definitely played a big factor in this primary. I do not think Obama has relied on that though. It is something that many people have been slammed for saying but it is true. Obama got a reverse case when said the bitter comment essentially what he said was true except I contend the jobs left 35 years ago. It is true but people don't say it in the open because it incites emotional responses.

...yes, that is true. The black vote historically goes to the Democratic candidate (since I think the reconstruction period roughly?)...

Yes, winning the popular vote would be huge for her. The turnout in PA is probably going to surpass the highest of expectations, and the turnout will probably surpass the total number of voters who voted in the few states that have a higher population. Winning PA by 10 or so should at LEAST cut Obama's Popular vote lead in half I think. She'll win Kentucky and West Virginia easy (the goal here will be to bring as many voters as possible to the polls). She can win Indiana if she does well in PA, so that will help. And if she can keep Obama's win in NC under 10, and his win in OR under 10, she MIGHT be able to beat him in the popular vote, but it'll be very close.

Also, a few things people forget about.

1. Pledged Delegates aren't pledged delegates. They can switch sides at the convention if they want to.
2. Dean has said very recently the delegates in FL (don't think he mentioned MI) will be seated somehow.

I still don't understand what the has to do with my comment?

Well I do hope they count the delegates from FL and figure something out from MI BUT I do think the pledged delegates should stay that way pledged.

They've pretty much thrown them out (which has so many repercussions in my opinion but I digress).

I think you are confusing pledged delegates and superdelegates. The pledged delegates have to vote the way of their district I'm pretty sure, no?

This is the thing that bothers me the most about Clinton. She goes on and on about how voters are being disenfranchised in FL and MI, but then she goes and encourages pledged delegates to go against the will of the people who elected them. Seems far more likely to piss off voters.

Thats Hillary. Having your cake and eating it should be her motto. She has done that so many times

Pledged delegates technically could go against the will but I think their party allegiances will pretty much prevent that. What Hillary is going for is the superdelegates.

Nope, but if a candidate tries to "steal" the delegates that way, it will undermine, well, pretty much everything about him/her and make the relationship with half of the party basically unrepairable, unlike say one bowing out gracefully and persuading his/her supporters to rally behind the other candidate. It already created a loud backlash when an article suggested Hillary and her campaign were trying to win the election that way.

sub 5% i would leave, sub 10% drop out after nc.

The flip side lies with downscale white voters. A John Edwards type candidate with Obama's resources would have won states like Ohio.

Increasingly I seriously think the Dems goofed by not nominating Edwards. He's already been vetted, in the 2004 campaign, and if the Republicans had any dirt on him or smear stuff, they'd have used it already.

Edwards isn't perfect, I don't like his mandated health care bill and he can be a little vain sometimes, but he'd probably beat McCain in a landslide if he was the nominee. He's got that kind of 'loves to campaign' personality and political-type charm without being a total sellout evil type.

People are always saying how charming Obama is but I really think that's his weak spot. He's smart and decent, but I don't really find him that charming. I still prefer Obama to Hillary though, by a lot.

As to what I'd do if I was Hillary and won Pa, let's say by 10-15 points? I'd continue to campaign but I'd take the Huckabee route and become very respectful. That worked well for Huckabee, he surprised a lot of people with how many votes he got while running a campaign that wasn't slamming McCain. And it would help reduce the damage the Clintons have done to their reputation - which is a lot, they are now viewed negatively by over 50% of Democrats.

If I were Hillary I'd pull off most negative ads, especially the harshest ones. I'd replace them with a series of bio-spots talking about where she came from and who she is. And a few policy spots in which she highlights specific policy goals and how she is knowledgeable about it. I bet that would raise her favorables and probably her poll numbers too.

The problem is Edwards could not manage to get the nomination this time or the last time, and this time he seemed to connect even less with the public.

I'm hoping he ends up as the VP again. its really a shame he didn't get picked over Kerry in '04

I agree with Archie that she needs to done down the negativity, and fast.

I think it might be to late.

Its to bad, I actually liked HIllary, but starting with the whole "the Republicans will accuses Obama of being a drug dealer since he admitted he used drugs" comment from her camp I just got annoyed. The Republicans might, but you just did.