Why Hillary mathematically cannot win
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Corpse
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Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37162 Location: The Graveyard
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 Re: Why Hillary mathematically cannot win
Groucho wrote: Apostle Ericka wrote: You forget about how Nov 2006 played out. The REPS didn't lose because of policies or how well they campagined, etc. They lost because of the backlash against Bush and the REPS. The DEMS didn't have to do hardly anything to beat them and take the House and Senate. Santorum stood firmly behind Bush, so he was very vulnerable, and lost because of it. PA seems to be something of a 50/50, or maybe 55/45 (in DEMS favor) in total voters, so getting the backing of conservative republican groups wasnt going to do him any good.
No, the voters if OH, PA, and FL clearly go in Clinton's favor. They consist of more older voters, diverse voting groups, and have more moderate/conservative DEMS. While I agree with your facts, the point still remains that 2008 will find Democrats running against McCain, who is basically Bush term 3. Other politicians who stood behind Bush kept their seats in 2006, so maybe the democrats of PA had something to do with getting rid of an incumbent (not an easy task). My point remains that while Clinton may win the democrats in the state, that doesn't mean she would be better to face off against McCain. Obama gets many more independents than she does, and in the general that is more important. Still waiting for you to answer my question about how you would react if Hillary was the one with the most votes and the most delegates. Would you still be supporting the superdelegates overturning the desires of the voters? And if so, why do we have these expensive primaries and caucuses then? If Clinton had the most votes and delegates, but lost say (NH, NV, NM, OH, FL**, and probably PA), then I'd be okay if the Super Delegates voted in favor of Obama. Because OH, PA, and FL are too important. NH, NV, and NM are also potential swing states, so having them in Obama's column would give me more confidence in him this NOV. So if Clinton and Obama's current poistions were switched, I'd be favoring Obama for the nomination. I like Hillary more, but I'd have to go over to Obama's side since winning the White House back is the most important issue. The entire purpose of the Super Delegates is to decide close races like this, having a hundred or so more pledged delegates or a few hundred thousand more votes doesnt necessarily mean that candidate is the best candidate for NOV.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Sun Mar 09, 2008 10:25 pm |
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Groucho
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Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 9:30 pm Posts: 12096 Location: Stroudsburg, PA
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 Re: Why Hillary mathematically cannot win
You have a lot more trust in unelected insiders than I do, then! I know that deals go on behind closed doors and that quite often, the superdelegate insiders are more concerned with what they can get out of something. It's the reasons we did away with the proverbial "smoke filled rooms" all those years ago to a system where the people chose the candidate instead of the party bosses.
I think this is not what democracy is supposed to be about.
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Sun Mar 09, 2008 11:16 pm |
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Bradley Witherberry
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Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 1:13 pm Posts: 15197 Location: Planet Xatar
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 Re: Why Hillary mathematically cannot win
Groucho wrote: You have a lot more trust in unelected insiders than I do, then! I know that deals go on behind closed doors and that quite often, the superdelegate insiders are more concerned with what they can get out of something. It's the reasons we did away with the proverbial "smoke filled rooms" all those years ago to a system where the people chose the candidate instead of the party bosses.
I think this is not what democracy is supposed to be about. I fjust ind it odd we didn't hear these complaints about the Democratic Party's primary process before Obama started to lose. The Obamatron motto: Change the rules when you start to lose!
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Mon Mar 10, 2008 12:08 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22214 Location: Places
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 Re: Why Hillary mathematically cannot win
Hillarys the one who wants Fla and Mich to count 
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Mon Mar 10, 2008 10:09 am |
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Groucho
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Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 9:30 pm Posts: 12096 Location: Stroudsburg, PA
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 Re: Why Hillary mathematically cannot win
Bradley Witherberry wrote: I fjust ind it odd we didn't hear these complaints about the Democratic Party's primary process before Obama started to lose.
The Obamatron motto: Change the rules when you start to lose! Did anyone even know about superdelegates before this year? Bueller?
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Mon Mar 10, 2008 11:59 am |
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insomniacdude
I just lost the game
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 7:00 pm Posts: 5868
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 Re: Why Hillary mathematically cannot win
Groucho wrote: Bradley Witherberry wrote: I fjust ind it odd we didn't hear these complaints about the Democratic Party's primary process before Obama started to lose.
The Obamatron motto: Change the rules when you start to lose! Did anyone even know about superdelegates before this year? Bueller? I didn't. Even when Obama was behind I thought the idea of super-delegates is abhorrent.
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Fri Mar 14, 2008 3:21 am |
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Groucho
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Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 9:30 pm Posts: 12096 Location: Stroudsburg, PA
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 Re: Why Hillary mathematically cannot win
insomniacdude wrote: Groucho wrote: Bradley Witherberry wrote: I fjust ind it odd we didn't hear these complaints about the Democratic Party's primary process before Obama started to lose.
The Obamatron motto: Change the rules when you start to lose! Did anyone even know about superdelegates before this year? Bueller? I didn't. Even when Obama was behind I thought the idea of super-delegates is abhorrent. Yeah, I had no idea. If I did know, I would have been against it then, too. The entire concept seems undemocratic to me, kind of like the original electoral college. By the way, the latest numbers show Obama closing in on the superdelegate counts.
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Fri Mar 14, 2008 6:54 pm |
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Box
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Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 12:52 am Posts: 25990
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 Re: Why Hillary mathematically cannot win
Groucho wrote: Yeah, I had no idea. If I did know, I would have been against it then, too. The entire concept seems undemocratic to me, kind of like the original electoral college.
One of my profs told me that the idea behind superdelegates was to ensure that the party leaders would have some means of deciding elections in their favour if the populace at large went in the direction other than that they desired. So by its nature the system is totally undemocratic.
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Fri Mar 14, 2008 8:32 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37162 Location: The Graveyard
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 Re: Why Hillary mathematically cannot win
I have read up some on the superdelegates and such.
The idea was first thought up when McGovern and Fraser created the core system behind delegates representing their states based on populations. 1968. And other high rankings DEMS thought this wasnt the best thing to do, since it diminished the role of party leaders and elected officials by weaking the McGovern and Carter ticket. Then in 1982, NC GOV Jim Hunt chaired a committe that created the superdelegates. And the % of superdelegates in the overall count has changed from the proposed 30%, to mid teens, now to about 20%. A study was done in 94 that showed that superdelegates are more likely to prefer the candidate(s) with Washington EXP rather than outsiders.
As for the current superdelegates, some facts:
-50% are white men. -19 Party Leaders -31 GOVs -48 Senators (includes two shadow senators) -222 House Members -399 DNC Members
They include Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter, and Al Gore
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Fri Mar 14, 2008 9:34 pm |
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Anita Hussein Briem
Yes we can call dibs on the mountain guide
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:47 pm Posts: 3290 Location: Houston
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 Re: Why Hillary mathematically cannot win
There is nothing inherently abhorrent about superdelegates. Their main purpose is to resolve plurality scenarios when three or more major candidates are present. Obama fans should quit the whining -- just because Clinton's only clear path to victory involve superdelegates does not mean she will actually pull that off. Most party heads remember the Mondale fiasco.
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Sat Mar 15, 2008 12:51 pm |
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Groucho
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Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 9:30 pm Posts: 12096 Location: Stroudsburg, PA
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 Re: Why Hillary mathematically cannot win
Here's what political writer Mark Halperin of Time said today about "Painful things Hillary should know":
She can’t win the nomination without overturning the will of the elected delegates, which will alienate many Democrats.
She can’t win the nomination without a bloody convention battle  after which, even if she won, history and many Democrats would cast her as a villain.
Nancy Pelosi and other leading members of Congress don’t think she can win and want her to give up. Same with superdelegate-to-the-stars Donna Brazile.
Many of her supporters  and even some of her staffers  would be relieved (and even delighted) if she quit the race; none of his supporters or staff feel that way. Some think she just might throw in the towel in June if it appears efforts to fight on would hurt Obama’s general election chances.
The Rev. Wright story notwithstanding, the media still wants Obama to be the nominee  and that has an impact every day.
Many of the remaining prominent superdelegates want to be for Obama and she (and Harold Ickes) are just barely keeping them from making public commitments to him.
This is a change election, and Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton can never truly be change.
Even though her campaign staff is having more fun than it has for a long time, there’s hardly anyone there who, given half a chance, wouldn’t slit Mark Penn’s throat  and such internal dissension won’t help her in the home stretch.
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Sat Mar 22, 2008 7:08 pm |
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Shad
Angels & Demons
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 12:19 pm Posts: 233 Location: Iceland
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 Re: Why Hillary mathematically cannot win
I read a very good BBC article, "Can Hillary Clinton still win?", a few days ago. When it was written the popular vote was as follows: BARACK OBAMA: 13.6m HILLARY CLINTON: 13.3m According to the article, there's a fairly good chance that Hillary will end up winning the popular vote when it is all said and done, even though she'll certainly have fewer delegates. The article then continues: "[Hickman] says that Democratic voters felt so bruised by the 2000 election - in which former Vice-President Al Gore went all the way to the Supreme Court to fight for lost Florida votes that could have made him president - that they are reluctant to allow the nomination to be decided by a cabal of elected officials and party dignitaries voting in accordance with their own personal beliefs.
Yet it is precisely this argument that Mrs Clinton will have in her corner if she can win the popular vote.
If Mr Obama is forced to argue that he has more delegates while Mrs Clinton has more votes, his position is dramatically weakened, especially given the history of the very party that was forced to put up with the Bush administration for eight years, despite Mr Gore winning more votes in 2000.
Recent polling confirms this. A 6 March Rasmussen poll shows that 57% of Americans think the candidate with the most votes should win the Democratic nomination. Only 26% of Americans think the candidate with the most delegates ought to win."So yeah, after the Bush-Gore scandal, I think it would be extremely hypocritical for the Democratic superdelegates to select Obama as their candidate instead of Clinton if she actually ends up with more votes.
_________________ "Lick me in the arse, quickly, quickly. Lick my arse beautifully, really clean. Lick it, that's an oily desire. It's only good smeared with butter. Lick me, lick me!"
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Sat Mar 22, 2008 8:21 pm |
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Groucho
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Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 9:30 pm Posts: 12096 Location: Stroudsburg, PA
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 Re: Why Hillary mathematically cannot win
loyalfromlondon wrote: too bad Obama can't win Pennsylvania.
That would really help things. He can win it, it's just unlikely. I'm an optomist.
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Sat Mar 22, 2008 8:34 pm |
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Groucho
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Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 9:30 pm Posts: 12096 Location: Stroudsburg, PA
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 Re: Why Hillary mathematically cannot win
Shad wrote: Recent polling confirms this. A 6 March Rasmussen poll shows that 57% of Americans think the candidate with the most votes should win the Democratic nomination. Only 26% of Americans think the candidate with the most delegates ought to win."[/i] The problem with that is that it means states with caucuses don't count, doesn't it? Or are the caucus voters included in that number?
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Sat Mar 22, 2008 8:36 pm |
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Shad
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Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 12:19 pm Posts: 233 Location: Iceland
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 Re: Why Hillary mathematically cannot win
Groucho wrote: Shad wrote: Recent polling confirms this. A 6 March Rasmussen poll shows that 57% of Americans think the candidate with the most votes should win the Democratic nomination. Only 26% of Americans think the candidate with the most delegates ought to win."[/i] The problem with that is that it means states with caucuses don't count, doesn't it? Or are the caucus voters included in that number? I'm not sure. I think so though. Why would they not be included? I have probably read a lot less about this nomination process than you. But of all of the articles I've read thus far, this is the only one that has mentioned this possibility of Clinton receiving more votes but fewer delegates. I thought it was a good point. This article actually says that the only way for Clinton to win the nomination is to win the popular vote and then try to build a case that as she has received more votes, she should be the party's nomination. Only if that happened could she possibly convince undecided superdelegates to vote for her. It would certainly get interesting if that is what eventually were to happen.
_________________ "Lick me in the arse, quickly, quickly. Lick my arse beautifully, really clean. Lick it, that's an oily desire. It's only good smeared with butter. Lick me, lick me!"
~ Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart, "Leck mich am Arsch", K231, Vienna, 1782
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Sat Mar 22, 2008 8:45 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37162 Location: The Graveyard
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 Re: Why Hillary mathematically cannot win
Yes, winning the popular vote and wins in the general election deciding states will be her argument come the convention. She has nearly locked up the latter, a win in PA will do that. But to keep the first goal alive she needs to win PA convincingly. The turnout is going to be massive in PA. I expect it to exceed a state bigger than it's turnout from this year. Excluding FL, that's...CA, NY, TX, and maybe IL right? But we can't count FL's turnout. I think the voter turnout can challenge the few states that have a bigger population given it's going to be the most hyped state since Iowa. And looking at the remaining contests, it seems like they will mostly split them. And it'll come down to turnout and margin of victories on deciding the popular vote.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Sat Mar 22, 2008 8:53 pm |
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Groucho
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Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 9:30 pm Posts: 12096 Location: Stroudsburg, PA
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 Re: Why Hillary mathematically cannot win
Shad wrote: Groucho wrote: Shad wrote: Recent polling confirms this. A 6 March Rasmussen poll shows that 57% of Americans think the candidate with the most votes should win the Democratic nomination. Only 26% of Americans think the candidate with the most delegates ought to win."[/i] The problem with that is that it means states with caucuses don't count, doesn't it? Or are the caucus voters included in that number? I'm not sure. I think so though. Why would they not be included? Well, because they don't necessarily fill out ballots in the same way someone who votes does. I mean, I know there are numbers because they report them on the news, but I wasn't sure if the totals listed above included them or not.
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Sat Mar 22, 2008 9:34 pm |
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Shad
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Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 12:19 pm Posts: 233 Location: Iceland
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 Re: Why Hillary mathematically cannot win
Groucho wrote: Shad wrote: Groucho wrote: Shad wrote: Recent polling confirms this. A 6 March Rasmussen poll shows that 57% of Americans think the candidate with the most votes should win the Democratic nomination. Only 26% of Americans think the candidate with the most delegates ought to win."[/i] The problem with that is that it means states with caucuses don't count, doesn't it? Or are the caucus voters included in that number? I'm not sure. I think so though. Why would they not be included? Well, because they don't necessarily fill out ballots in the same way someone who votes does. I mean, I know there are numbers because they report them on the news, but I wasn't sure if the totals listed above included them or not. I'm curious though, what would you want to happen if prior to the convention, it became clear beyond dispute that Clinton had garnered more overall votes with Obama having more delegates. Because I remember you being very vocal about the stolen election of 2000 and being heavily critical of the electoral system.
_________________ "Lick me in the arse, quickly, quickly. Lick my arse beautifully, really clean. Lick it, that's an oily desire. It's only good smeared with butter. Lick me, lick me!"
~ Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart, "Leck mich am Arsch", K231, Vienna, 1782
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Sat Mar 22, 2008 11:15 pm |
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Bradley Witherberry
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Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 1:13 pm Posts: 15197 Location: Planet Xatar
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 Re: Why Hillary mathematically cannot win
Shad wrote: Groucho wrote: Shad wrote: Groucho wrote: Shad wrote: Recent polling confirms this. A 6 March Rasmussen poll shows that 57% of Americans think the candidate with the most votes should win the Democratic nomination. Only 26% of Americans think the candidate with the most delegates ought to win."[/i] The problem with that is that it means states with caucuses don't count, doesn't it? Or are the caucus voters included in that number? I'm not sure. I think so though. Why would they not be included? Well, because they don't necessarily fill out ballots in the same way someone who votes does. I mean, I know there are numbers because they report them on the news, but I wasn't sure if the totals listed above included them or not. I'm curious though, what would you want to happen if prior to the convention, it became clear beyond dispute that Clinton had garnered more overall votes with Obama having more delegates. Because I remember you being very vocal about the stolen election of 2000 and being heavily critical of the electoral system. With Obama supporters, everything is relative... but never, never idealistic! (Just goes to show ya, you can be very naive, and yet still have a very successful career!  )
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Sun Mar 23, 2008 12:31 am |
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Anita Hussein Briem
Yes we can call dibs on the mountain guide
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:47 pm Posts: 3290 Location: Houston
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 Re: Why Hillary mathematically cannot win
Groucho wrote: Well, because they don't necessarily fill out ballots in the same way someone who votes does.
I mean, I know there are numbers because they report them on the news, but I wasn't sure if the totals listed above included them or not. A direct popular vote count "disenfranchises" every state with a caucus, to use Clinton's favorite word.
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Sun Mar 23, 2008 1:15 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22214 Location: Places
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 Re: Why Hillary mathematically cannot win
Shad wrote: I read a very good BBC article, "Can Hillary Clinton still win?", a few days ago. When it was written the popular vote was as follows: BARACK OBAMA: 13.6m HILLARY CLINTON: 13.3m According to the article, there's a fairly good chance that Hillary will end up winning the popular vote when it is all said and done, even though she'll certainly have fewer delegates. The article then continues: "[Hickman] says that Democratic voters felt so bruised by the 2000 election - in which former Vice-President Al Gore went all the way to the Supreme Court to fight for lost Florida votes that could have made him president - that they are reluctant to allow the nomination to be decided by a cabal of elected officials and party dignitaries voting in accordance with their own personal beliefs.
Yet it is precisely this argument that Mrs Clinton will have in her corner if she can win the popular vote.
If Mr Obama is forced to argue that he has more delegates while Mrs Clinton has more votes, his position is dramatically weakened, especially given the history of the very party that was forced to put up with the Bush administration for eight years, despite Mr Gore winning more votes in 2000.
Recent polling confirms this. A 6 March Rasmussen poll shows that 57% of Americans think the candidate with the most votes should win the Democratic nomination. Only 26% of Americans think the candidate with the most delegates ought to win."So yeah, after the Bush-Gore scandal, I think it would be extremely hypocritical for the Democratic superdelegates to select Obama as their candidate instead of Clinton if she actually ends up with more votes. Its right, the person with the most votes should get it; except obamas 600k lead isnt going anywhere.
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Sun Mar 23, 2008 1:59 am |
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Eagle
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Joined: Wed Sep 15, 2004 1:09 pm Posts: 14631 Location: Pittsburgh
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 Re: Why Hillary mathematically cannot win
Caucus votes are included in the popular vote tally, they still count the votes, same as a regular vote, otherwise Obama would be way behind as many of his wins come from caucuses.
Realistically, Hillary should drop out, but if she wins PA with over 55% of the vote, I just don't see it happening. And I think she will get over 57%, so I don't think she's going anywhere.
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Sun Mar 23, 2008 2:04 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22214 Location: Places
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 Re: Why Hillary mathematically cannot win
I think shell drop out if she loses North Carolina. At that point it would be just too obviously all over. I dont see a win in Penn bigger then 55-44 either.
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Sun Mar 23, 2008 2:14 am |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37162 Location: The Graveyard
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 Re: Why Hillary mathematically cannot win
I wouldn't be surprised with a near 20 point win in PA for Clinton. She literally has the entire state behind her. Both majors of PITT and PHILI (the places Obama had to do well to match her sure wins in rural areas). Their support of her is going to make it tough for Obama in the urban areas now. The GOV of PA, a popular and very active politician. And John Murtha has endoresed Clinton too. And the demographics are nearly ideal for Clinton. It's not going to be like OH with Obama winning big in places like Cleveland and Columbus to help couter Clinton winning in all the rural areas. That was enough for Obama to lose by 10 and no more, but PA is going to be far more difficult for him given he has no support there.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Sun Mar 23, 2008 12:39 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22214 Location: Places
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 Re: Why Hillary mathematically cannot win
doubtful; everybody said same thing about cali n ohio.
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Sun Mar 23, 2008 1:04 pm |
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