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 March 4th Championships 
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Post Re: March 4th Championships
Ericka wrote:
Again, she doesn't need the most pledged delegates to beat Obama. Winning states like OH, FL, and PA are enough for superdelegates to side with her if the delegate count is still as close as it is. And do not forget about MI and FL. Dean has said they broke the rules, blah blah, but if it goes to the convention, he and the Party wont piss the DEMS off in those two states by not including them in some way in the end, and they are big enough to push Hillary or Obama over. And if I was a superdelegate, I would too. I wouldnt want to risk losing any of those. And Clinton is more favorable in them. It's just like Donna Brazile said on CNN. The SuperDelegates will be looking for who can win in NOV. And she is a superdelegate. Not for who has won the most states, or who has the most votes. But for who can win in the places to win the general election, like OH, FL, and PA.

Her red phone ad is only going to help her persuade them of this. This ad helps McCain and her, and hurts Obama. So if it's Obama vs McCain, Obama is the only one hurt by this, while Clinton gave him a wonderful ad to run against Obama. This ad could have been a big reason why late deciders went for her and not Obama. Most think it was a big role in TX where the ad was aired. So she has started the first attack that actually hurts Obama in a general election of he is the nominee.


I got a little news for you. Just because Obama is finally questioning her experience does not mean that McCain would not HAMMER her on it. That ad would be very effective against either Hillary or Obama coming from McCain. Hillary's "35 years of experience" is such a crock of shit, especially when you consider what she includes in that 35 years as being legit experience. McCain has around 25 years of ACTUAL legislative experience, and I'd say his time in the military is a hell of a lot more important as far as the commander-in-chief role is concerned than her time as a corporate lawyer or being on the board of Wal-Mart, both of which she includes in her 35 years. Barack has played nice and given her a free pass on this up until yesterday, but McCain will not.

As for Donna Brazile, she has said she will quit the party if the superdelegates overturn the will of the people.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/07/dem.delegates/

"If 795 of my colleagues decide this election, I will quit the Democratic Party. I feel very strongly about this," Brazile said.

Florida and Michigan will have their say, but Barack will get his chance to campaign in those states. There will be another primary. I am confident of this. In fact, there was a big meeting in Congress about it last night. The only fair thing to do is to allow each candidate to campaign there and each candidate to actually have their name on the ballot. If you don't, then you've got to penalize the states if you seat them. Take away 25-50% of their delegates. Hillary will likely still win but not by the margins she did when Obama wasn't on the ballot in Michigan and wasn't able to campaign in Florida.


Thu Mar 06, 2008 8:22 am
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Post Re: March 4th Championships
redfirebird2008 wrote:
As for Donna Brazile, she has said she will quit the party if the superdelegates overturn the will of the people.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/07/dem.delegates/

"If 795 of my colleagues decide this election, I will quit the Democratic Party. I feel very strongly about this," Brazile said.

It's funny that she wants to change the rules only after things aren't going her way. It reminds me of some of the kids I went to grade shool with. If she really didn't approve of the superdelegate aspect of the nomination process, why didn't she speak up before the primaries began?



(The "will of the people" nonsense being spouted in this regard is especially hilarious! :funny: )


Thu Mar 06, 2008 8:47 am
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Post Re: March 4th Championships
Bradley Witherberry wrote:
redfirebird2008 wrote:
As for Donna Brazile, she has said she will quit the party if the superdelegates overturn the will of the people.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/07/dem.delegates/

"If 795 of my colleagues decide this election, I will quit the Democratic Party. I feel very strongly about this," Brazile said.

It's funny that she wants to change the rules only after things aren't going her way. It reminds me of some of the kids I went to grade shool with. If she really didn't approve of the superdelegate aspect of the nomination process, why didn't she speak up before the primaries began?



(The "will of the people" nonsense being spouted in this regard is especially hilarious! :funny: )


She's a Clinton supporter.


Thu Mar 06, 2008 8:49 am
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Post Re: March 4th Championships
redfirebird2008 wrote:
Bradley Witherberry wrote:
redfirebird2008 wrote:
As for Donna Brazile, she has said she will quit the party if the superdelegates overturn the will of the people.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/07/dem.delegates/

"If 795 of my colleagues decide this election, I will quit the Democratic Party. I feel very strongly about this," Brazile said.

It's funny that she wants to change the rules only after things aren't going her way. It reminds me of some of the kids I went to grade shool with. If she really didn't approve of the superdelegate aspect of the nomination process, why didn't she speak up before the primaries began?



(The "will of the people" nonsense being spouted in this regard is especially hilarious! :funny: )


She's a Clinton supporter.

That's an interesting reduction. Ms. Brazile is a bit more than that in the Democratic party...


Thu Mar 06, 2008 9:19 am
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Post Re: March 4th Championships
Bradley Witherberry wrote:
redfirebird2008 wrote:
Bradley Witherberry wrote:
redfirebird2008 wrote:
As for Donna Brazile, she has said she will quit the party if the superdelegates overturn the will of the people.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/07/dem.delegates/

"If 795 of my colleagues decide this election, I will quit the Democratic Party. I feel very strongly about this," Brazile said.

It's funny that she wants to change the rules only after things aren't going her way. It reminds me of some of the kids I went to grade shool with. If she really didn't approve of the superdelegate aspect of the nomination process, why didn't she speak up before the primaries began?



(The "will of the people" nonsense being spouted in this regard is especially hilarious! :funny: )


She's a Clinton supporter.

That's an interesting reduction. Ms. Brazile is a bit more than that in the Democratic party...


Well yes, I'm just saying she has more ties to Clinton than Obama. She just wants the popular vote to win the nomination regardless of who it is.


Thu Mar 06, 2008 10:00 am
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Post Re: March 4th Championships
Ericka wrote:
Munk·E wrote:
If the "super delegates" are so smart...

They know that Obama should be the nominee.

Only an idiot would put Hillary in over Obama.



If I was a super delegate, in a race this close, I'd go with who won in OH, PA, FL. If someone won all three of those, they'd get my support, but only if the wins in all three are significant, near double digits or more. They are tooooo important to lose in NOV. You simply cannot lose them. Losing them means you give 4 more years to the REPS.


I would be willing to bet that if the tables were turned and Hillary was the one ahead and Obama were making this argument, the Hillary supporters would be screaming that it's wrong for the superdelegates to ignore the will of the people.

I mean, how undemocratic can you get? The people vote one way and the insiders veto the people's choice and put in their own insider candidate -- thus confirming Obama's comment that Hillary is just another Washington politician who won't bring change. I think if that happens, you are going to see a real rip in the democratic party, and a lot of these people who are excited about politics will just stay home or worse yet vote for Ralph Nader in protest.

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Thu Mar 06, 2008 11:31 am
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Post Re: March 4th Championships
March 4 is over guys, time to migrate over to the other thread.


Thu Mar 06, 2008 12:22 pm
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Post Re: March 4th Championships
Magnus wrote:
The only way Hilary can win is by winning Penn AND having Florida and Mich come back, and she wins them both.

If Florida and Mich don't get their delegates, then she has no shot. But if they do, then she does have a good shot.


A shot at what? She will not overtake him in pledged delegates.

Read this article:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/119010/page/2

Even under a pretty optimistic scenario for Clinton, he would still beat her in pledged delegates. She has a shot no matter what due to superdelegates, but she will not beat him in pledged delegates at this point.


Thu Mar 06, 2008 2:50 pm
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Post Re: March 4th Championships
redfirebird2008 wrote:
Magnus wrote:
The only way Hilary can win is by winning Penn AND having Florida and Mich come back, and she wins them both.

If Florida and Mich don't get their delegates, then she has no shot. But if they do, then she does have a good shot.


A shot at what? She will not overtake him in pledged delegates.

Read this article:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/119010/page/2

Even under a pretty optimistic scenario for Clinton, he would still beat her in pledged delegates. She has a shot no matter what due to superdelegates, but she will not beat him in pledged delegates at this point.



You are thinking toooo much on the pledged delegates. If the two are around 1800 come June, and before MI and FL re-vote, she's going to win. She still has the superdelegate support, despite losing many more states, and having less pledged delegates. Most of the remaining super delegates wont decide until the end, which is exactly Clinton's plan. To freeze them. Make them look at the states she has one. The states that decide a general election. A general election the DEMS do not want to lose yet again.

redfirebird: She will win MI and FL. And I expect her to win them by double digits. Especially in FL. Maybe greater than she did before because she'll claim she helped get their voices heard. And if neither of them have the 2025 needed (2024 according to some Dean math), it's very possible she will have the Popular Vote lead with a win in PA (should win easy, GOV supporting her, conservative/moderate DEMS and NO REPS OR INDS ARE ALLOWED TO PARTICIPATE IN THE VOTE IN PA), and FL and MI. That, plus OH, Fl, PA, MI, CA, MA, NJ, and NH is going to be too much to pass up. Because it's clear if she wins PA, and the re-do's in MI and FL that she is stronger than Obama in the states that decide the elections.

OH - Will be close as usual I'm sure, but NAFTA killed Obama there, and it'd continue to haunt him. And OH is all about the Economy. And Clinton wins when it comes to NAFTA and the Economy. So she stands the best chance to take OH, not to mention the GOV's support who is loved in OH.

FL - This state is nearly perfect for her voting demos. She will cut into McCain's older vote, and get the Lationo support (who's voting numbers have been increasing every election). And FL is all about older voters and latinos.

PA - Similar case with OH. The DEMS there are more conservative than most, which favors Clinton over Obama. She has the GOV's support, just like in OH. And to think Obama can win here too, is immature. Kerry barely beat Bush here in 2004, and it was because of the conservative/moderate DEMS who didn't like how liberal he was. And Obama is the more liberal of the two (Clinton and he), and Kerry has endorsed him.

MI - Will go DEM either way, so it shouldn't matter here. But the terrible Economy means Clinton will fair better. Not to mention, she will claim she was a leading cause in getting their voices heard when they do their re-vote this summer.

CA- Will go DEM either way, but Clinton should fair better due to the Latino vote.

MA- Again, will go DEM either way, but if Clinton was able to win over Obama, despite the Kennedy, Kerry, and GOV endorsements, she will fair better than Obama would.

NJ - Could very well go REP. It's not quite a swing state, but it's close to one. And who did NJ vote for? Clinton.




Against Obama, McCain could easily challenge him in OH (especially OH, and if McCain won OH, well, no REP has ever lost the general election when they won OH.). McCain could fair better in FL, due to Obama not being able to attract as many Latino voters, and his lack of older voter support. FL's two most important voting groups. And in PA because he is too liberal. It's just TOO much to leave to chance to nominate Obama. Losing any of them could be disaterous
.

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Thu Mar 06, 2008 9:45 pm
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Post Re: March 4th Championships
Hey Hillarys a hypocrit? Who knew?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080306/pl ... ediplomacy

Why am I not surprised???

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Thu Mar 06, 2008 9:59 pm
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Post Re: March 4th Championships
Ericka wrote:
You are thinking toooo much on the pledged delegates. If the two are around 1800 come June, and before MI and FL re-vote, she's going to win. She still has the superdelegate support, despite losing many more states, and having less pledged delegates. Most of the remaining super delegates wont decide until the end, which is exactly Clinton's plan. To freeze them. Make them look at the states she has one. The states that decide a general election. A general election the DEMS do not want to lose yet again.


First of all, they both cant have around 1800. Assuming Hillary wins everything 60-40, Obama would be 1680 and Hillary 1640ish. OBVIOUSLY, she isnt going to be winning by 60-40.

Theres no guarentee fla and michigan revote,corpse. no matter how badly clinton needs them, they broke the rules. i know you want her to win but you cant act like they dont exist.

Quote:
redfirebird: She will win MI and FL. And I expect her to win them by double digits. Especially in FL. Maybe greater than she did before because she'll claim she helped get their voices heard.


Very doubtful. This was before Obamania really set in and she only took 50 of the florida vote anyways. Florida would be a 6-7% win for hillary. Michigan has a ton of black people, it would be close. She won Ohio by 10%, black population factor in Id say hillary takes it by 5%.

Quote:
And if neither of them have the 2025 needed (2024 according to some Dean math), it's very possible she will have the Popular Vote lead with a win in PA (should win easy, GOV supporting her, conservative/moderate DEMS and NO REPS OR INDS ARE ALLOWED TO PARTICIPATE IN THE VOTE IN PA), and FL and MI. That, plus OH, Fl, PA, MI, CA, MA, NJ, and NH is going to be too much to pass up. Because it's clear if she wins PA, and the re-do's in MI and FL that she is stronger than Obama in the states that decide the elections.


She won Ohio by 10% and it was due to bama sitting back and playing defense. If he plays offense, like he will not and did pre feb 5, shell get hurt. I would be surprised if she takes penn by more than she did Ohio.

Quote:
OH - Will be close as usual I'm sure, but NAFTA killed Obama there, and it'd continue to haunt him. And OH is all about the Economy. And Clinton wins when it comes to NAFTA and the Economy. So she stands the best chance to take OH, not to mention the GOV's support who is loved in OH.


too bad hillary has been caught having done the same thing-telling canda to take her claims with "a grain of salt" but of course its leaked AFTER the primary. Gotta be some hions who wanna take bavk their votes now :yes:

Quote:
FL - This state is nearly perfect for her voting demos. She will cut into McCain's older vote, and get the Lationo support (who's voting numbers have been increasing every election). And FL is all about older voters and latinos.


No, its not perfect. Florida is also loaded with young people-tampa, miami, gainsville, orlando, there a ton of huge colleges all over that state. while hillary will win, itll be another close 3-5% one.

Note, all of these wins by 10% arent too much to brag about. It just shows that if Hillary wasnt in the race, Obama would have just as much if not more support than she does right now.

Quote:
PA - Similar case with OH. The DEMS there are more conservative than most, which favors Clinton over Obama. She has the GOV's support, just like in OH. And to think Obama can win here too, is immature. Kerry barely beat Bush here in 2004, and it was because of the conservative/moderate DEMS who didn't like how liberal he was. And Obama is the more liberal of the two (Clinton and he), and Kerry has endorsed him.


We shall see...every state has shown one thing: hillary starts off big, and obama either closes the gap or over takes her. If she leads polls by 10% or more now, it means obama will probablyt lose but it will be under 10%, possibly 5.

This is a must win state for hillary simply because if she loses it, it would be literally impossible for her to get close to his vote and delegate counts.

Quote:
MI - Will go DEM either way, so it shouldn't matter here. But the terrible Economy means Clinton will fair better. Not to mention, she will claim she was a leading cause in getting their voices heard when they do their re-vote this summer.


Michigans also loaded with blacks-al sharpton won the primary there years ago.

Quote:
CA- Will go DEM either way, but Clinton should fair better due to the Latino vote.


she beat him by 10% on feb 5th, it wouldbe under 5% now. there difference honestly isnt big enough to listen to.

Against Obama, McCain could easily challenge him in OH (especially OH, and if McCain won OH, well, no REP has ever lost the general election when they won OH.). McCain could fair better in FL, due to Obama not being able to attract as many Latino voters, and his lack of older voter support. FL's two most important voting groups. And in PA because he is too liberal. It's just TOO much to leave to chance to nominate Obama. Losing any of them could be disaterous
.[/quote]

corpse what you fail to understand is just how poorly hillary matches up against mccain. they are troo similar, except hillary is the polarizing one who turns people off. Those people will vote for mccain just so she doesnt win. What literally everybody is seeing-including democratcic delegates- other than clinton supporters is that Obama wins people over, gets them on his side, and brings them together around him (or in this case, the democratic part in november) much easier than hillary does.

btw obamas mauling him in polls, so theres not much risk. Butr you know whatis risky?? giving the less popular candidate (clinton) the nomination. :thumbsup:

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Thu Mar 06, 2008 10:13 pm
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Post Re: March 4th Championships
Big "oops" for Hillary in Mississippi. Good thing for her it's one of those states that "doesn't matter."

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/20 ... -comments/

"I was shocked when I learned Iowa and Mississippi have never elected a woman governor, senator or member of Congress," Clinton told the Des Moines Register in October. "There has got to be something at work here. How can Iowa be ranked with Mississippi? That's not the quality. That's not the communitarianism, that's not the openness I see in Iowa."

Oops! :funny:


Thu Mar 06, 2008 10:58 pm
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Post Re: March 4th Championships
She's laying the groundwork to say they don't count. Only states she wins count.


Thu Mar 06, 2008 11:24 pm
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Post Re: March 4th Championships
Archie Gates wrote:
She's laying the groundwork to say they don't count. Only states she wins count.


Well she did apologize for the remark but the damage has been done and Obama's harping on it. Luckily for her it's not a bigger state. :funny:


Thu Mar 06, 2008 11:40 pm
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Post Re: March 4th Championships
Archie Gates wrote:
She's laying the groundwork to say they don't count. Only states she wins count.


Yep, and it's true. The only states remaining that matter are PA, maybe NC, then FL and MI.

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Fri Mar 07, 2008 12:02 am
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Post Re: March 4th Championships
you realize corpse, the reason hillary probably wont ever catch him, is because she ignored these states that "dont count"

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Fri Mar 07, 2008 12:20 am
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Post Re: March 4th Championships
So yeah,

Virginia, Nebraska, Iowa, Washington state, Oregon, Nevada, Colorado, North Dakota, etc. don't matter.

Image

In the same polls, Hillary won Florida and Obama didn't, yet all those "worthless" states that he can compete in and she can't add up and he actually beats McCain by a slightly larger margin than her. And when you consider the number of states he is able to compete in vs. her number, it's staggering. Even in Florida, he loses to McCain by 2%. 1% in Texas. :whaa:


Last edited by redfirebird2008 on Fri Mar 07, 2008 12:26 am, edited 1 time in total.



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Post Re: March 4th Championships
Mista Nasty Time wrote:
you realize corpse, the reason hillary probably wont ever catch him, is because she ignored these states that "dont count"


It's true.

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Post Re: March 4th Championships
redfirebird2008 wrote:
So yeah,

Virginia, Nebraska, Iowa, Washington state, Oregon, Nevada, Colorado, North Dakota, etc. don't matter.

Image

In the same polls, Hillary won Florida and Obama didn't, yet all those "worthless" states that he can compete in and she can't add up and he actually beats McCain by a slightly larger margin than her. And when you consider the number of states he is able to compete in vs. her number, it's staggering. Even in Florida, he loses to McCain by 2%. 1% in Texas. :whaa:



Anyone doing matchups like that this early are on crack.

Virginia = REP
Nebraska = REP
IOWA = Swing
Washington State = DEM
Oregon = DEM
Nevada = Swing
Colorada = REP
North Dakota = REP


Obama has won in many REP stats because he hasn't went up against a REP, and it's far more likely REPS will vote Obama. I mean, he has crossover potential and all. Just in states that don't matter in NOV, and with voters who will go REP when there is a REP on the ballot against him, not a Clinton And he has lost several swing states, like Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Flordia**, and New Hampshire. Clinton clearly does better in the swing states. She has a much better chance of putting Nevada and New Mexico in the Blue Column than Obama does, and she can even contend with McCain in AZ, which he didn't beat Huckabee/Romney by a huge margin. She could contend with him here due to the latino vote, unlike Obama.

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Fri Mar 07, 2008 5:37 pm
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Post Re: March 4th Championships
Then why is it that she currently trails McCain in Nevada and he beats him there? Or why is he winning New Mexico by a bigger margin than her against McCain? Seriously, you are pretty short-sighted if you think the primary is any indication of how a candidate would match up with someone from the other party, particularly when she lost the delegate count in Nevada (aka VERY close race) and won New Mexico by like .5% of the vote (incredibly close race). It's not like she blew him out in those states. If SurveyUSA is on crack for doing early matchups, then you're incredibly short-sighted for thinking the primary means anything regarding how the candidates would match up with McCain, especially in close races like New Mexico and Nevada.


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Post Re: March 4th Championships
redfirebird2008 wrote:
Then why is it that she currently trails McCain in Nevada and he beats him there? Or why is he winning New Mexico by a bigger margin than her against McCain? Seriously, you are pretty short-sighted if you think the primary is any indication of how a candidate would match up with someone from the other party, particularly when she lost the delegate count in Nevada (aka VERY close race) and won New Mexico by like .5% of the vote (incredibly close race). It's not like she blew him out in those states.


Because it's March.....any general election polls now are worth less than nothing. They are 100% useless. They just give you a general idea of what voters are thinking RIGHT when they take the poll. And who had all the momentum in the past month? Obama. Just look at the national polls from the past few days compared to last week. Obama was up 5-10 points, but that is now switched now with Clinton leading once again. It's because of who has the momentum, and who gets the most media coverage. The same can be said about stupid 8 month too early state polls that are taken. I don't care if a poll says Clinton leads New York by 90 points over McCain, because it's worth less than nothing until 7/8 monts from now.

These general elections polls don't factor in many, many things.

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Post Re: March 4th Championships
Ericka wrote:
redfirebird2008 wrote:
Then why is it that she currently trails McCain in Nevada and he beats him there? Or why is he winning New Mexico by a bigger margin than her against McCain? Seriously, you are pretty short-sighted if you think the primary is any indication of how a candidate would match up with someone from the other party, particularly when she lost the delegate count in Nevada (aka VERY close race) and won New Mexico by like .5% of the vote (incredibly close race). It's not like she blew him out in those states.


Because it's March.....any general election polls now are worth less than nothing. They are 100% useless. They just give you a general idea of what voters are thinking RIGHT when they take the poll. And who had all the momentum in the past month? Obama. Just look at the national polls from the past few days compared to last week. Obama was up 5-10 points, but that is now switched now with Clinton leading once again. It's because of who has the momentum, and who gets the most media coverage. The same can be said about stupid 8 month too early state polls that are taken. I don't care if a poll says Clinton leads New York by 90 points over McCain, because it's worth less than nothing until 7/8 monts from now.

These general elections polls don't factor in many, many things.


And likewise, you are being ridiculously short-sighted to think that the primary means anything in a general election matchup for either candidate against McCain, especially when you start bringing up close primary races like Nevada and New Mexico.


Fri Mar 07, 2008 9:06 pm
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Post Re: March 4th Championships
redfirebird2008 wrote:
Ericka wrote:
redfirebird2008 wrote:
Then why is it that she currently trails McCain in Nevada and he beats him there? Or why is he winning New Mexico by a bigger margin than her against McCain? Seriously, you are pretty short-sighted if you think the primary is any indication of how a candidate would match up with someone from the other party, particularly when she lost the delegate count in Nevada (aka VERY close race) and won New Mexico by like .5% of the vote (incredibly close race). It's not like she blew him out in those states.


Because it's March.....any general election polls now are worth less than nothing. They are 100% useless. They just give you a general idea of what voters are thinking RIGHT when they take the poll. And who had all the momentum in the past month? Obama. Just look at the national polls from the past few days compared to last week. Obama was up 5-10 points, but that is now switched now with Clinton leading once again. It's because of who has the momentum, and who gets the most media coverage. The same can be said about stupid 8 month too early state polls that are taken. I don't care if a poll says Clinton leads New York by 90 points over McCain, because it's worth less than nothing until 7/8 monts from now.

These general elections polls don't factor in many, many things.


And likewise, you are being ridiculously short-sighted to think that the primary means anything in a general election matchup for either candidate against McCain, especially when you start bringing up close primary races like Nevada and New Mexico.


No, because they have voted for two actual candidates on a ballot. Not asked a question about who they will vote for. Voters in Neveda favored Clinton over Obama. Voters in New Mexico favored Clinton over Obama. Voters in Ohio favored Clinton over Obama. Etc. The battleground states work far more in Clinton's favor because of their demos.

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Fri Mar 07, 2008 9:11 pm
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Post Re: March 4th Championships
There's the disconnect. If Clinton beats Obama by 0.5% in New Mexico, what the hell does that mean for John McCain? It means nothing. You can't connect a primary with how a candidate will do against the other party. This goes back to Clinton's ridiculous argument that somehow Obama wouldn't win New York or California against McCain. Right, they're gonna go against the much more liberal candidate just because Hillary's not on the ballot? Yeah, I'm sure those New Yorkers and Californians are really wanting a 100 year war in Iraq! :funny:


Fri Mar 07, 2008 9:15 pm
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Post Re: March 4th Championships
redfirebird2008 wrote:
There's the disconnect. If Clinton beats Obama by 0.5% in New Mexico, what the hell does that mean for John McCain? It means nothing. You can't connect a primary with how a candidate will do against the other party. This goes back to Clinton's ridiculous argument that somehow Obama wouldn't win New York or California against McCain. Right, they're gonna go against the much more liberal candidate just because Hillary's not on the ballot? Yeah, I'm sure those New Yorkers and Californians are really wanting a 100 year war in Iraq! :funny:



I'm not JUST talking about New Mexico. I'm talking about several states. And as I said before, I'd only conclude that either Obama or Clinton would fair better against McCain in whatever state if they won by a sizable margin, at least 10 points. And you CAN connect how a candidate will do against the other party based on the states voting groups. Obama would do much better against McCain in South Carolina than Hillary would for example. And Hillary would do much better in Mass. than Obama would. Of course, SC is going REP either way and MASS is going DEM either way, and this is the politics, the campaign that Hillary has run. She knows where she needs to win, and how to win them. States like OH and PA. The Big 3 Swing States (OH, PA, and FL) greatly favor her. They consist of her strongest voting groups. McCain could challenge Obama in PA, but not Clinton. Obama is simply too liberal and young for PA to guarentee a victory. And I'm almost positive Kerry's experience was the only reason he beat Bush there in 2004, it was much closer than it should have been. And his experience wasn't enough to persuade FL (the state with the largest older voting group) to vote for him.

I don't see any reason to suspect Obama could win in PA and/or FL when Bush was able to beat Kerry in FL, and nearly beat him in PA. Being too liberal REALLY hurts in OH, PA, and FL. Obama vs McCain is almost like Kerry vs Bush again. Losing ANY of the Big 3 could give McCain the election. And Clinton clearly has better odds than Obama does at victory in all the Big 3 states (not to mention both the GOV of OH and PA have endorsed her). Sure, she may not win as many states as Obama would against McCain, since I'd expect Obama to carry a few traditionally red states, but that won't matter if he'd end up losing OH, FL, or PA. It's too much of a risk. Afterall, they are why we have had Bush for 8 years.

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“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Fri Mar 07, 2008 11:56 pm
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