I think he's going to run as a republican Dumbledore.

But thats not a very intelligent point. If Obamas the nominee he will get Cali same way if Hillarys th enominee, McCain will get Texas.

exactly. ohio was a bigge but she was favored to win all along...so why such surprise?

Except for Iowa, the late deciders have consistently breaking toward Hillary, and I think there are a couple of built-in reasons for that:

1. The demographic for last-minute deciders probably favors her (older, more women, etc.);
2. When you're still undecided in the last minute and you're forced to choose, people normally go with the "safer" choice, the one they know more and feel more comfortable.

The Ohio margin for late deciders is particularly large for another reason: Hillary had a very good weekend, with some help from the media - the 3am ad (even though dirty, indeed worked), the Rezko case, and NAFTA. She didn't actually get much, if anything at all, out of the debate, since the exit polls from Ohio showed people who think the debate was important in fact went with Obama (certainly, need more demographic breakdown on who watched the debate before extracting more meanings), but almost everything afterward favored Clinton. Basically the election held at a perfect time, as Obama had little time to counter.

Also, what last night showed is that by this time, after all these primaries, the constituency behind each candidate is becoming really rock solid, regardless how much more ads each airs. A small group of undeciders are moving back and forth, but by large, the voting blocs are set, unless there is a major scandal or slip up. AA is breaking 85-15 Obama, Hispanics 65-35 and Asians 70-30 for Clinton, white women double-digit for Clinton, and white men single-digit for Obama. 18-29 years old is going 70-30 for Obama, while 65+ is breaking the same for Clinton. Combined, each has about 45-50% of the support, pretty much equally divided. Except for Wisconsin, all these have been pretty consistent. So it's all about turnout and the demo of each individual state.

Well David Brooks the republican columnist who knows people who work at the white house has said on Charlie Rose a few months ago that the Bush team is rooting for Hillary, that they see her as the best chance to preserve his legacy.

So I'm not surprised he's feeling good today.

Caucus update. Barack is up by 12% (56-44) with 39% of the precincts reporting. Around 3 AM this morning with 34% reporting, it was much closer (52-48). Before that, Obama was consistently leading by 10-12% in all the other updates so it appears the 52-48 update was influenced heavily by some of her stronghold areas (possibly South Texas or West Texas).

Here is the live update.

I've been checking that website since last night but it's a bigger pain in the ass than tool. Why don't they include the overall numbers? I mean it's nice to see the district breakdowns but it'd be better to have both the district and the overall numbers.

Bill Clinton went on Rush Limbaugh's show today? WTF? That's so beneath him.

Well, after everything has apparently been counted, Hillary gained a net of 4 delegates.

So she is still behind Obama by more than 100 delegates.

Obama only needs 46% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination. So he could lose all the remaining states and still win.

Hillary's victory is impressive and she is spinning it just like I would if I were her, but seriously, she's going to have to win everything that is left by big numbers to carry this off, and I don't think that's going to happen.

Peace, Hillary.

win the nominaion? How?

You mean Obama?

He only needs 46% of the remaining delegates to stay ahead of Hillary. Yes, it's not enough to win without the superdelegates, but it won't be enough for Hillary either.

So basically, his campaign is saying:

"1. We expect to win more than just 46% of the remaining delegates so should be way ahead of her; and

2. The superdelegates should not impose their will over the voters and give the nomination to Hillary."

If the "super delegates" are so smart...

They know that Obama should be the nominee.

Only an idiot would put Hillary in over Obama.

Good thing you're not a Super Delegate!

And I'll repeat what numerous super delegates have said: follow the voters.

Be it Obama or Clinton, if the person with the most votes or delegates doesnt get nomination at the convention, there will be hell to pay for democrats.

Turn off hundereds of thousands of voters, assure a november loss, and and anger a very popular-hell, the most popular- candidate.

When Obama goes into the convention with a delegate lead. He will get the nomination.

Even if it's only by 1.

The whole MI and FL thing is something to think about, though. If they hadn't been stripped of their delegates, Hillary would probably be leading right now.

In strict mathematical terms, she wouldn't. She would be behind by only 26 (assuming delegates are divided exactly along percentage lines and excluding the superdelegates of course).

But we all know the race is about momentum, so it's harder to say what those delegates would have meant and done since she they were held when she had the lead and would have extended her lead.

This whole need 75% of the delegates to win thing is ridiculous. She doesn't need, or care about getting to the mark, she just cares about not letting Obama get there.


Look:


There are 720 pledged delegates left in the Democratic Race. Lets just assume a (360/360) split, which in reality, will be close to what happens. Some of these delegates (FL, MI) currently won't be seated.

That gives Obama 1681 pledged, and Clinton 1546 pledged.


There are 796 superdelegates, 359 of which are unpledged. Let's assume they break at the current rate of 54.5 to 45.5. I personally think they break closer to 57% to 60% for Clinton (a 40 delegate swing).

That gives Clinton 434 pledged SD, and Obama 362 pledged SD. Which in turn, gives Obama a total of 2043 delegates, and Clinton a total of 1980, with Edwards having the remaining 26.

Now, with the above totals, Obama wins the election, yay. But, subtract the 156 of Michigan and the 210 of Florida, and now you only have totals of 1860 for Obama and 1797 for Clinton. Neither is anywhere close to the nomination, and if you re-seat those delegates, chances are they go heavy for Clinton, especially in Florida.

Personally, I think this thing is a dead heat, and think about who decides this if it's a brokered convention: The Superdelegates. Who have they consistently broke for? Even when Hillary is losing 10 in a row?

Yep. Say hello to your nominee.

It must be nice living in such an innocent fantasy world...




(PS: Superdelegates are a legitmate part of the Democrat's nomination process, they are not imposing anything - - he media has been imposing the imposing idea...)