The most exciting primary of my lifetime just got more exciting, even though it gives us Democrat supporters more headaches. 12 states left, two of which are in the next 7 days:

03/08: Wyoming caucus (18 delegates)
03/11: Mississippi primary (40 delegates)

Obama should win both comfortably. Then there will be a 6-week break(! what kind of scheduling is that?) until Pennsylvania. What will happen? I don't expect any sort of the deal to be reached before then, no matter how hard Howard Dean tries, but will a decision be reached on FL and MI? Will Puerto Rico indeed matter?

This schedule is terrible, six weeks of this, the winner is clearly McCain.

As a Pennsylvania resident who complained last year that our primary was so far away that the candidate would be chosen by this time, I'm happy. Maybe I'll get to meet one of the candidates even...

As for whether this hurts the party, I think not (see post in other thread).

Well ... let's break it down:

March 8th
Wyoming (caucus) ... 12 delegates ... 6 super delegates
- No polling
- ONLY caucus left besides Guam and Puerto Rico

March 11
Mississippi ... 33 delegates ... 7 super delegates.
- No polling

As you said, I don't think Hillary will win either. Will be interesting to see the results though, and if she does win, Obama is in deep trouble.

Apr. 22
Pennsylvania
- Polls show Clinton ahead by an average of 47.2 to 36.8, I think she wins by around 60/40
- I think Clinton wins PA, so where do we go after there?

May6
Indiana
- The only poll done there in mid Feb favored Obama 40/25

North Carolina
- Favored obama 45/37

May 13
West Virginia
- only poll favored Clinton heavily 37/22

May 20
Kentucky
- No polls

Oregon
- Polls favor Clinton 36/28

June 3
Montana
- Polls favored Clinton 29/17

South Dakota
- No polling. ND went to obama, but it was a caucus, and this is a primary.


Obviously these polls are old, and not reliable, but there all we have to form an idea. SO as it stands, this would mean:

Obama
Wyoming
Mississippi
Indiana
North Carolina

Clinton
Pennsylvania
West Virginia
Oregon
Montana

Up in the Air
Kentucky (I think Favors Obama)
South Dakota (I think Favors Obama)
Michigan?!
Florida?!


But there is so much damn time, that all of this could change. Regardless, it should show you that NEITHER is going to win this outright. If Michigan and Florida get seated, or get re-votes, say goodbye to Obama.

If I were Hillary, I would campaign balls to the walls in Mississippi and Kentucky, I think she can steal Kentucky for sure, and if there was more time, I'd like her chances in Mississippi.

Hillary just announced that a Barack Obama presidency will take away Amish buggies.


Well not yet, but it's just a matter of time.

If Hillary takes PA with the same margin as Ohio, she will most probably get the nomination.

If she takes Mississippi as well, it's just about guaranteed.

6 weeks... ARGHHHH

There is no way Obama loses Mississippi or West Virginia.

Those Penn polls are flawed. They include 2 form nearly a month ago. We got 2 last week, bothi showing Clinton wins, 1 by 4% and 1 by 6%.

Now it gets tricky. 2 weeks ago after the Wisconsin primaries, she led polls in Ohio be about 15%, and lead polls in Texas by an average of 12%. Obviously she held her gap in Ohio, but he closed the Texas gap by quite a bit. Sorry Eagle, but calling a 20% point win for Hillary with polls this close and Obamas history of gaining late in the campaign...is a joke.

That said, niether are dorpping out. When all is said and done in August Obama will have the popular vote and most pledged delegates, and the nomination therefore should go to him.

I think you're right on Mississippi, but wrong on WVA, I think WVA goes to Clinton easily.

west viriginia isnt until mid may. here the official count, latest:

Obama: 1,562
Clinton: 1,461

Obama wil lhave, give or take a few, roughly a 100 over delegate lead when all is said and done and roughyl 140 delegate lead in the all important PLEDGED delegates as remember, super delegates are supposed to follow them.

Up comes Mississippi with 33. I will say Obama takes about 21, Mississippi is 38% Black compared to 1% Latino, a gain of 9. Wyoming has 12, I'll say they get split. Obama will have about 100-110 delegate lead and a pledged delegate lead over 150 heading into Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania itself has about 150 pledged delegates. Assuming she heavily wins, she will STILL be down.

Thats why Im gonna say it now...Pennsylvania is ALSO must win for her. Should she fail to win Pennsylvania, her chances of regaining the delegate lead-all those super delegetes who fled to early included even- will be effectivly over. A loss there would be similiar to what Huckabee did for republicans. It would be obvious-at that point-who the countries voters have picked as the candidate, and dragging it out longer would make her look bad in the public and the eyes of the party.

Im not saying she needs to drop out, but to have any real chance to get those super delegates over she needs to take Pennsylvania.

Yeah, PA is undoubtedly a must win for her.

Lastest Polls from Rasmussen.

Democratic Presidential Nomination
Clinton- 48%
Obama- 43%

The poll was taken, for the most part, BEFORE Clinton's vistories last night. She has been increasing her lead the past 3 days after being behind for 3 consecutive weeks. Momentum, at least for the moment, seems to be in her favor and it should only increase once yesterday's results are factored into the polls.

General Election
McCain 48
Obama 43

McCain 46
Clinton 45

Now thatwe know its going to august the polls for the nomination are pointless.

the general election polll, at least, should be considered. of course it's unlikely to stay the same but it does show what a few of us have been saying for a while. the reason obama has been doing so well is because he has not been under any scrutiny. his support had nowhere to go but down. polls are already starting to reflect that.

Rasmussen poll is almost worthless.

eh what I wanna see is what happens now that Obamas finally back on the offensive as he was back in the day.

washington post disagrees

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080306/pl_ ... cs_poll_dc

that poll was taken earlier than the rasmussen poll, starting on feb 28.

nevertheless i love those numbers!!

Andrew Sullivan has some good constructive criticism for Obama here.

I especially agree with his second point.

a new poll has clinton ahead here, 52% to 37%; though the same source had her ahead by just 5% 5 days ago, so dont know how accurate it is.

doubtful, Baracks taking the gloves while hillarys sink is all empty from last tuesday. oabams been savingit for when he needs it look out here it comes!

Careful what you wish. Hillarys new found momemtum will also bring her media scrutiny again and here it comes. Hillary was caught telling canada to take her nafta talk with a grain of salt.

so appearently after all that critism of obama for doing it, she did the same damn thing. -1 point for hillary and throw out the advantage you guys thinks she has in pennsylvania due to obamas canada talks.

She will likely win but I doubt she'll crush him.

- not as many rural rednecks as Ohio
- low hispanic population, one of her strongest groups
- dem only primary. republicans favored her in texas and ohio, as they want her versus mccain.
- a good amount of well off people and students, two strong areas for Obama.

I figure it will be like 55-45 Clinton. Which is fine. She'd have to win like 70-30 for him to worry about her catching up in delegates.