Also, how do you guys feel about this whole "the fight is weakening the party" thing?
At of right now, I don't buy into it. I think people are ready for this thing to be over, but there's obviously still excitement. And with Hillary presumably gaining ground, it's not like McCain will have one candidate to be firing shots at like he has the past couple weeks with Obama.
When a candidate starts siding with McCain, it weakens the party. "I have a lifetime of experience, McCain has a lifetime of experience, Obama has a speech he gave in 2002." If that kind of garbage keeps up, it will divide the party big time.
I don't necessarily think it's weakening the party, but I do think everyone wants it to be over. If you look at all the money that has been raised thus far, especially last month, it's amazing. Hillary (the complete underdog) almost tripled what McCain (the Repub nominee) raised. There's a whole lot more interest this time around and Democrat turnout has been huge. I honestly think either will win against McCain, even if it lasts a little longer.
Wed Mar 05, 2008 4:03 am
A. G.
Draughty
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:23 am Posts: 13347
Re: March 4th Championships
What I don't get about hillary is let's say she eventually loses the nomination. How does she handle then having to back Obama? She'd have no credibility backtracking on all the nasty bs she has thrown at him. She has flat out said he's not qualified to be president.
Wed Mar 05, 2008 4:05 am
redfirebird2008
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 4:13 am Posts: 2483
Re: March 4th Championships
Archie Gates wrote:
What I don't get about hillary is let's say she eventually loses the nomination. How does she handle then having to back Obama? She'd have no credibility backtracking on all the nasty bs she has thrown at him. She has flat out said he's not qualified to be president.
Accused him of plagiarism, yelled at him like a child ("shame on you Barack Obama!"), praised McCain over him, and on and on. If she wins and tries to get his voters by offering him the VP position, I would hope he'd decline it after all the character attacks she's done on him during this campaign. The plagiarism thing, in particular, is pretty disturbing to me. Not only has she attacked his character constantly, she's attacked the intelligence of his supporters by implying that his supporters are a cult. Speaking of which, her supporters sounded eerily similar to a cult tonight during her speech in Ohio.
Wed Mar 05, 2008 4:08 am
mdana
Veteran
Joined: Wed Apr 27, 2005 11:07 pm Posts: 3004
Re: March 4th Championships
Archie Gates wrote:
Hillary was defeated after Wisconsin. Obama is going to get the nomination. It's impossible for Clinton to catch up. She'd have to get like 75% in all the remaining states she wins (Because Obama will win a few like NC)
The only question being decided is how much damage she's going to do before she concedes. The party honchos know this. I bet Pelosi, Gore and a few other leaders break for Obama within a week.
Eagle's idea of her getting it with the superdelegates is unlikely for two reasons. A lot of them don't like her, and also a lot of their own constituencies voted for Obama and they are going to want to get re-elected.
As to him taking the vp slot, he'd be a fool to. What he should do is do what she's doing: go negative. Make some ads highlighting her corporate lawyer past and her ties to lobbyists. It would damage his new politics theme a little but it would crush her.
Edit: well maybe not Gore since he is a bit of a wuss, but I wouldn't be surprised if Pelosi makes a decision soon.
This is all wrong. Whomever, the Superdelegates decide the best candidate is (Lord help us) will get the nomination. Neither candidate has won any state primary or caucus by a large enough margin to win this thing outright. Obama can't run the table and win it without the Superdelegates, either. The superdelegates have to decide this. Obama has the delegate lead, because he has benefitted from arcane primary delegate allocations (he gets more delegates in mostly AA districts, because he wins those with 75-25% of the vote or better), and caucuses which are very questionable in deciding the best candidate. Basically, for the primaries it breaks down if you get 65% you get an extra delegate, if you win 75% you get an extra delegate and so on. So candidate A might win the entire state 59-40%, but only get an extra delegate for the entire state, but candidate B won district 1 by 75-24%, and he gets 3 extra delegates from that, even though he lost the rest of the state 64-34%. Candidate B gets 2 extra delegates. Clinton has gotten more votes than Obama, if you count all the votes cast so far.
He has not won the large populated states, and he has not done well in primaries that don't have large AA populations. The superdelegates need to sit this out until the dust settles and really look at the entire picture of where these candidates run strong and weak. According to exit polls of voters, Clinton supporters are more likely to sit out the election if Clinton is not the nominee than Obama supporters if the situation is reversed. There are a myriad of factors that need to be considered and I think waiting until the last possible moment is not a bad idea. How many times have either candidate looked unstoppable since Jan. of 2007, yet neither has been able to wrap it up.
Kerry winning so early in 2004 didn't make him a stronger candidate it made him weak, because Edwards never went negative. I am a Darwinist, if Obama or Clinton win they need to be roughed up, to be be better able to handle the GE fight. Survival of the fittest.
This is nothing like 1968, people need to read and understand history in order to comment. Doug Wilder is just making outrageous BS statements like he has for the last 20 years. If anyone wants to know what a Democrat who is only looking out for #1 looks like you can't get a better example than Doug Wilder, Ed Koch, or William Schaeffer. These are Democrats, I can't stand.
He has not won the large populated states, and he has not done well in primaries that don't have large AA populations.
How about Kansas and Wisconsin? There are probably others but it's almost 3:30 am...
As to the large populated states, while Ohio is a swing state, New York and California are unlikely to go to the republican in the fall whichever of them is the nominee. Ohio is the only big state she can point to winning as drawing any distinction between her and Obama. And even in that state she won in part because of rural rednecks who probably voted for Bush in 2004 anyway.
With Kerry, what undid him was he ran on his vietnam war era accomplishments. It was just stupid, he was lucky to get as far as he did running such a badly thought out campaign.
Wed Mar 05, 2008 5:28 am
xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm Posts: 25109 Location: San Mateo, CA
Re: March 4th Championships
Archie Gates wrote:
mdana wrote:
He has not won the large populated states, and he has not done well in primaries that don't have large AA populations.
How about Kansas and Wisconsin? There are probably others but it's almost 3:30 am...
Kansas does caucus, but Connecticut is a primary, and it doesn't have large AA populations. He won the Washington state primary too, even though that's just a beauty contest (and less incentive for his supporters to vote, one could argue).
And RealClearPolitics still shows Obama ahead in popular votes, even with Florida counted (wouldn't be fair to count Michigan since he wasn't on the ballot, unlike FL).
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Re: March 4th Championships
Dkmuto wrote:
Also, how do you guys feel about this whole "the fight is weakening the party" thing?
At of right now, I don't buy into it. I think people are ready for this thing to be over, but there's obviously still excitement. And with Hillary presumably gaining ground, it's not like McCain will have one candidate to be firing shots at like he has the past couple weeks with Obama.
I don't buy it either - - it's simply a manufactured product of the media to amp up the drama. Why would we want to cut the democratic process short. Previous primaries such as 1968 and 1952 went all the way to the convention, and up to three votes there. Don't let the media sell you this nonsense.
Besides, keeping the Democrats front and center in the top of the news cycle for months and months is a bad thing how?
Wed Mar 05, 2008 7:03 am
Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32635 Location: the last free city
Re: March 4th Championships
_________________ Is it 2028 yet?
Wed Mar 05, 2008 9:04 am
Bradley Witherberry
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 1:13 pm Posts: 15197 Location: Planet Xatar
Re: March 4th Championships
Don't cry - - a woman president and black vice president is the Democrat's dream team!
Wed Mar 05, 2008 9:11 am
Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32635 Location: the last free city
Re: March 4th Championships
Bradley Witherberry wrote:
Don't cry - - a woman president and black vice president is the Democrat's dream team!
any woman but her.
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Wed Mar 05, 2008 9:15 am
Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32635 Location: the last free city
Re: March 4th Championships
as of right now Obama still has the delegate lead (1307 to 1175 according to MSNBC). so i shouldn't be feeling all sad.
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Wed Mar 05, 2008 9:24 am
kypade
Kypade
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 10:53 pm Posts: 7908
Re: March 4th Championships
that's not exactly funny. :huH:`
Wed Mar 05, 2008 9:31 am
Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32635 Location: the last free city
Re: March 4th Championships
loyalfromlondon wrote:
Christopher Hitchens just filleted Obama on MSNBC.
God I hope it makes Youtube.
He called him shallow, flaky, half-black, someone who keeps shady friends, and a member of a racist rock n roll church in Chicago.
yeah but its Christopher Hitchens. he always has something to say about democrates. i'm sure he's rooting for Clinton to win so he can have ammo for another book.
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Wed Mar 05, 2008 9:32 am
A. G.
Draughty
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:23 am Posts: 13347
Re: March 4th Championships
Hitchens is a Bush fan, so no surprise there. He went from a liberal in the 80s to a neocon in the 00's.
Obama should just go negative and slaughter her to end this. It's a shame though, he did everything he could to bring dignity to the campaign.
Wed Mar 05, 2008 9:55 am
redfirebird2008
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 4:13 am Posts: 2483
Re: March 4th Championships
loyalfromlondon wrote:
you know, Obama could have won Texas and Ohio last night and we'd all be talking about her concession speech.
Between January and Febuary, he raised what, $100 Million? I don't what else you need to shore up ready made victories in OH and TX after winning 11 straight.
Put that coffee down!! Coffee's for closers!
$86 million, but the thing about Ohio and Texas is that both of them had females voting off the charts. 57-60% of the vote in both states was females. And guess what, the gender card comes into play almost as much as the race card comes into play for Obama. And there are far more females in the electorate than blacks, so it's an even bigger force. Plus, she had 20 point leads in both states not too long ago. I'm not sure how that makes those states "ready made" for him, particularly when Texas is loaded with Hispanics and Ohio is loaded with blue collar white voters. Those are her BASE supporters.
Wed Mar 05, 2008 10:08 am
redfirebird2008
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 4:13 am Posts: 2483
Re: March 4th Championships
Magnus wrote:
Clinton's performance basically ensures we're having a brokered convention. No candidate is going to get enough without superdelegates.
Shit is going to be crazy in Denver.
Yep, get out the popcorn!
Wed Mar 05, 2008 10:29 am
Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32635 Location: the last free city
Re: March 4th Championships
i wonder what precentage of the Texas voters who voted last night in the dem primary are registered republicans? i bet there were alot voting for Hillary thx to talk radio telling them it be easier beating her than Obama.
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Wed Mar 05, 2008 10:41 am
redfirebird2008
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 4:13 am Posts: 2483
Re: March 4th Championships
That's something I am wanting to see because she carried the Texas white rural vote BIG TIME, and I bet some of them were Republicans. I haven't seen any breakdowns other than 10% being the approximate number of Republicans that voted. I'm interested to see the breakdown of the 10% though. Right wing talk radio was definitely pushing for their listeners to vote for Clinton.
Wed Mar 05, 2008 10:44 am
Groucho
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 9:30 pm Posts: 12096 Location: Stroudsburg, PA
Re: March 4th Championships
Dkmuto wrote:
Also, how do you guys feel about this whole "the fight is weakening the party" thing?
At of right now, I don't buy into it. I think people are ready for this thing to be over, but there's obviously still excitement. And with Hillary presumably gaining ground, it's not like McCain will have one candidate to be firing shots at like he has the past couple weeks with Obama.
I actually think while there are bad things about it, overall it's good.
It keeps the candidates in the news and in the public eye, and people are talking about Hillary and Obama -- one of which will be the candidate in the fall. If one had won by now, they would no longer be headline news for quite a few months. McCain, meanwhile, will be relegated to the back pages much more now that he has the Republican nod.
The bad part is that a lot of the race is becoming negative, so what people are hearing is not good for the democrats. On the other hand, the negative stuff would have come out anyway from the Republicans, but would be later on and closer to November. So if we get the bad stuff out of the way now, by November it will be old news...
From CNN, Hillary is +27 in delegates counted thus far over the states last night. There is still a substantial portion left to count, including the entire Texas caucus. So far it's 117/90
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Wed Mar 05, 2008 11:41 am
Groucho
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 9:30 pm Posts: 12096 Location: Stroudsburg, PA
Re: March 4th Championships
loyalfromlondon wrote:
If Obama can weather the hurricane named Hillary that's coming his way, he'll do just fine with McCain in the GE.
What's going to be strange is seeing him go negative against her. But it's all a game.
This picture sums EVERYTHING of the media bias up perfectly:
Rather than dividing it into equal thirds, Obama gets the most space, followed by Hillary, and McCain is scrunched into a corner.
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Wed Mar 05, 2008 11:44 am
El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm Posts: 21572
Re: March 4th Championships
Eagle wrote:
This picture sums EVERYTHING of the media bias up perfectly:
Rather than dividing it into equal thirds, Obama gets the most space, followed by Hillary, and McCain is scrunched into a corner.
A geez, this is the most trivial thing since the picture of Obama not pledging against the flag. Besides, Obama and Hillary's spacing seems to be the same. Next are you going to point out that that the media is intentionally going for some bad camera shots to make Hillary look less flattering? Only Sam Nasty would point things out like that
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