Of course they are true. All polls are true until proven untrue.

When was the Rasmussen poll conducted? The other one was conducted Feb. 6-12, which means it doesn't reflect the momentum from Feb. 12, nor does it represent the campaigning that Barack will be doing in those states pretty soon. It reflects what every poll said for a very long time: Hillary Clinton has the Clinton name brand and thus a running head start against any other Democrat in polls like this. Give Barack some time to campaign in those states and that lead will start dropping. Also, don't forget that he kicks her ass with Independents and Republicans. These polls are only Democratic voters, so it doesn't reflect how the actual voting will necessarily go. Either way, I'll be surprised if she wins by any more than 10 in Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania.

If that Rasmussen poll is new, it would make sense and would reflect his momentum. The other poll is from Feb. 6-12 and has her at a 21 point lead. The Rasmussen one has her at a 14 point lead. If that's a new Rasmussen poll (after Feb. 12), that's a 7 point change pretty quickly.

The Rasmussen poll was taken on February 13. Momentum is overrated insofar as competitive states are concerned.

Nationwide, on the other hand, Obama may be seeing a surge:
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_cont ... ng_history

So there has been a 7 point change, assuming they polled similar demographics and the other poll wasn't heavily biased toward Clinton. It'll be more interesting to see the Rasmussen poll next week or whenever the next one comes out since it will presumably be more consistent than comparing Rasmussen with the other one.

Obama has a shot at winning Ohio only because the state's primary is partially open -- that is, independents can vote in the Democratic primary. The figures for registered Ohio Democrats are forbidding at best.

Texas is another story. It's an open primary, and anyone familiar with the Texas state senatorial districts would know Obama has an unusual advantage, thanks to Republican gerrymandering.

I was just talking to my sister on the phone and she has heard that he might be coming to our school (Texas Tech) to speak in our basketball arena in late February. If he comes here, we will both definitely go. Lubbock is one of the most conservative cities in Texas. However, there is another side of the tracks (literally). There are many economically disadvantaged minorities in Lubbock. If they can make it a free event and get the word out through the churches, etc. that he is coming to town, I am confident he can fill the arena (15,000) despite the fact that there are so many conservatives in this town.

At this point, even the Clinton camp doesn't think they can overtake Obama in delegates. Expect a Clinton scorched-earth strategy to emerge very soon.

Texas (Rasmussen):
Clinton - 54%
Obama - 38%

More Texas polls:

ARG
Obama - 48%
Clinton - 42%

Texas Credit Union League
Clinton - 49%
Obama - 41%

OH SHITTT

Thats the most important for her by far. If she loses that, shell need a good 70% of the vote in Ohio to look like shes done.

Rasmussen: Texas, February 14

Clinton: 54%
Obama: 48%

TCUL/ Hamilton: Texas, February 11-14

Clinton: 49%
Obama: 41%

Insider Advantage: Texas, February 14

Clinton: 48%
Obama: 41%

dunno what to think; if hes at 8% without campaigning there....itll be close, either way.But for the sake of press, this is a must win for Hillary.

He's catching up quickly, and hopefully momentum will propel him to wins there.

If she loses Ohio and Texas, it's all over for her.

Of course, she won't give up even then, but after that, it will be kind of pathetic.

Inevitability and Electability

It's a good article, and adds a healthy dose of sobriety to the discussion. He conveniently left out Texas polls though, where Obama is behind by single digits and closing. Winning Texas would still clinch the nomination for him.

Also worth noting, however, is that if you go by polls, they also showed Obama within single digits of Clinton or even ahead occasionally in states like California, Massachusetts, and New Jersey before people actually voted. When the final results were tallied she won comfortably. Though if Obama is gonna take any of the remaining big three states (OH, TX, PA) I would agree that he by far has the best chance in Texas, I'll wait til the final results before buying into these polls, which throughout the race have shown varied reliability.

It's not just CA, MA, and NJ, which differed from polls by only single digits. The states that broke for Obama (CO, MN, etc.) differed from the polls by up to 40 percent.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

Obama up by 6 in Texas in this poll.

Clinton 42%
Obama 48%
Someone else 3%
Undecided 7%

Tomorrow I am going to see Bill Clinton speak, and then if Barack comes to Lubbock which is about an hour from me I will definitely make the journey to go listen to him. I am glad the candidates are finally coming to Texas.

Barack is coming to Lubbock on Thursday, February 28th at the United Spirit Arena! I cannot wait to go see him.

Very interesting article.

I swear this is the most confused I've ever been. I could go with my head or my heart, but the candidate for each changes every day. I want a Clinton/Obama ticket so bad.

I really think the Dem race is over at this point. I expect Hillary to concede about a week after the March 4 primaries.

That would be contingent upon Clinton winning. Obama/Clinton is not happening.

Exactly. Her ego is too large.

While that could be true, it is not the issue here. The issue is, Obama's advantage among independent voters would evaporate in a jiffy with Clinton on the ticket. That is not a dream ticket; for Obama, it would be a nightmare scenario. Running against McCain with Clinton as running mate is like dancing ballet with a straight jacket on.

Good point. Also, her amped up negativity towards him will likely turn him off completely to asking her to be his running mate if he wins. The Clintons sound desperate right now. Hillary, from what I can tell, Barack offers more detailed solutions on his website than you do. But hey, if you lie enough times, eventually it will become considered a fact. Bush of course has used this practice to great effect during his presidency.