McCain has momentum in some of the battleground states right now.

The polls have a margin of error of a few points either way, so a poll on one day may show a result of Obama 52 McCain 48 and another one the next day has Obama 49 and McCain 51 and they're really the same thing.

This is not an exact science...

We have to remember that the algorithm averages three days' worth of polls using only the nonpartisan pollsters. The most recent poll is always used, and if any other polls were taken within a week of it, they are all averaged together. So in these polls, like with any other statistical analysis, there exists the possibilities of outliers that may skew the data one direction or the other. However, over time, they should balance out.

Any state on the map that is considered "barely" is subject to change.

If Sarah could respond to this update....

10/29

TOWARDS OBAMA
NH: Weak Dem to Strong Dem
NV: Barely Dem to Weak Dem
MS: Strong GOP to Weak GOP



Colorado looks like a done deal for Obama, as two polls have him ahead by 8 points and 11 points, respectively. Nevada is looking more and more like an Obama win as one poll today has him 4 points ahead and another has him 10 points ahead. Likewise, Obama's lead in Ohio looks serious, with four polls today putting him ahead, by margins of 4, 7, 9, and 11 points, respectively. As is well known, no Republican in history has ever won the presidency without Ohio. Finally, despite McCain's last-minute attempt to win Pennsylvania, six new polls there show Obama with an insurmountable lead there, with leads of 7, 9, 12, 12, 12, and 13 points, respectively.

I'm glad to read that. I just saw Rasmussen's daily poll for Wednesday has Obama dropping to a 4 point lead after being five to 8 points ahead for the last month.
What are they trying to pull?

Well, in terms of national polls even a 4-pt lead is pretty significant. I think at this point Bush II had a 2 pt lead on Kerry and ending up trouncing him. In '92 Clinton had a decisive victory over Bush I and won by 5.7%. The average of the major national polls is at 6 or 7 right now.

It's going to be closer than many people think. As election day arrives, there are many Republicans who will finally decide to hold their noses and vote for McCain even though they don't like him. It won't be enough for him to win, though.

Still, remember the following caveats:

1. Many people have already voted.

2. The polls do not represent the enthusiasm gap; Obama's people are more likely to vote.

3. The polls do not take into account cell phone users, which are most likely younger and more likely to vote Obama.

So, on one hand, if it follows the standard trend of elections, McCain will close the gap in the final few days but not win. On the other hand, Obama may have a blow out based on the three things listed above.

It's exciting either way! This is the best Reality Show ever!

Here's Bill O'Reilly's "fair and balanced" electoral map. Read 'em and weep, suckas!

Obama could potentially, and is probably the slight favorite, to win every single swing state he listed. 10/14 are basically locked to vote DEM I think.

LOL!

Indiana, NC, and ND as GOP locks.... riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight

I think my favorite thing about that is Oregon being listed as a swing state.

He has PA and MI as toss-ups!

O' Reilly is an idiot.

Yeah, that's the first thing I noticed, too. Then I looked up and realized with 7+ it would put Obama at 190 to Mccain's 189. Ouch!

The first thing I noticed was the pictures. McCain, looking straight at you, like a friend. Obama? Chin up at you, not looking, very smug.

Crafty Fox.

It'd be great if someone can give their insight into the methodology used by different pollsters (Rasmussen, Zogby, Survey USA, Mason Dixon, etc.).

10/30

TOWARD OBAMA
MO: Exactly Tied to Barely Dem

TOWARD MCCAIN
WI: Strong Dem to Weak Dem

I messed up with a typo.
Yesterday Rasmussen had Obama drop to a 3 point lead, not 4. That's why I asked what is Rasmussen pulling.

Today Rasmussen has Obama up by 5 again.

Wisconsin?
What?

I think Wisconsin is still pretty safe. I don't see Obama losing any of Kerry's states. I think McCain is living in lala land if he thinks he can pull Pennsylvania out.

I just talked to a friend that was born and raised in Alabama. He's African-American and his parents grew up in the segregation era of the U.S. They had to ride in the back of the bus, use different water fountains, get food from windows in restaurants, etc. Even though things have improved substantially (especially among the younger generation) in terms of racism, he is still very reluctant to believe any polls. I think that he's a little too much on the side that thinks that most of America is still hypocritical, but I understand his point. I guess if you're under 35 that segregation seems so long ago...