I called Solo going under $100M OW so let me try it again.

I'm just not feeling the hype. I know it's "the end of the saga" except we all know it's not. Disney is also flooding the market with Star Wars content right now with The Mandalorian, making this seem less of an event.

I'm happy to be proven wrong but I really don't think people care enough about Rey and Adam Driver. Even Padme and Anakin felt more iconic at this point. Padme also had that amazing all-white catsuit that almost made me straight for a second. What iconic look does Ray have? How would you even dress as her for Halloween? It may sound dumb but after $3 billion in WW grosses if you don't have a Halloween outfit how much impact is your franchise actually making? My point is that those two films sold off of nostalgia for original Star Wars. Now everyone is dead/killed off. They're really trying hard with Lando and Palpatine but those are side characters.

I see this going under Rogue One's unadjusted 3-day OW of $155M. I also see it going under its DOM total and WW total tbh

UPDATE: In a desperate attempt to attract members, this club is moving its goalposts to Rogue One's adjusted OW of $162M.

Members:

- Me

*tumbleweeds*

I've seen people dress up as Rey for Halloween. TFA outfit is recognizable.

I could see the opening dip below 200m but I'm gonna say no. I think as we get closer to release the hype will build and ticket sales seem solid.

This club is retarded. It has way bigger PS than Rogue One. I am tracking 2 big MTC and interest is definitely there. I think it will open > 200m for sure. Will fine tune close to release once I have final PS numbers.

I think this will stay below $200m but it surely won't go below $180m OW. So OUT.

I'm eating your cum if this happens

... so you want this to happen

Out.

Nah now it could go sub $200M, but below RO's $150M OW is just too low. I'm definitely OUT on this one.

I find your lack of faith disturbing.

Still see 100+OD so no.

This would be a pathetic opening

The Mandalorian may be flooding the market with Star Wars material... But it's also the most positive people have talked about Star Wars in a while. So I guess that helps a little.

No way on Earth. Though SW saturation isn't helping. Not is it feels much too soon for Kyle/Rey's story to end

I’m tempted to join, but this might be too far.

Heh. I’m not sure Last Jedi’s reception was as bad as people make it out to be. Could still retain just enough audience.

What the hell...Even if I'm not sure and even if I'm wrong, it's more fun to be on the other side, so I'll predict 530m.

The length of this film has been confirmed at 141 minutes.

Its the 3rd longest of the SW films.

For comparison:

“Star Wars: Episode IV – A New Hope” – 121 Minutes

“Star Wars: Episode V – The Empire Strikes Back” – 124 Minutes

“Star Wars: Episode VI – Return of the Jedi” – 131 Minutes

“Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace” – 136 Minutes

“Star Wars: Episode II – Attack of the Clones” – 142 Minutes

“Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith” – 140 Minutes

“Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens” – 138 Minutes

“Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” – 133 Minutes

“Star Wars: Episode VIII – The Last Jedi” – 152 Minutes

“Solo: A Star Wars Story” – 135 Minutes

“Star Wars Episode IX – The Rise of Skywalker” – 141 Minutes

TROS is a guaranteed 200m + OW. GUARANTEED!

We're eight days away from release, still time to join!

I'm going to cut this off by the end of Sunday. After that I feel like reviews will start coming in.

Out

Out

Nah.

If reception is anywhere bad it may go under total.

How much does Rogue One OW adjust to? May as well make it about ticket sales if no one wants to join for unadjusted OW lol

I believe RO's inflation adjusted opening will be close to $162m which will still be too far IMO. Maybe 5-day vs 3-day should be good which would mean over/under $190,260,809.

Yeah I have to agree with Magnus. I still don't see it opening under $160M, but man as far as RO domestic total goes it could end up being really close which is something I wasn't entirely convinced was going to happen at first, although I did have a funny feeling about this movie suffering for the sins of both TLJ and Solo.

Definitely not expecting a 200m opening even if previews are 50m. Even if it has a huge 2nd week drop for the date, it probably won’t be more than 50%. Opening on the 20th has to deflate the opening somewhat. It’s not going to get a multiplier under 3 and will probably still get 3.5. This club is possible, but previews will probably be too high.