In the case of Superman Returns, the cards are just not falling right. Starting from just last year, it had been touted as one of the bigger movies of 2006. With the most famous superhero of all time, why not? It was touted against Pirates 2 and Da Vinci Code, in lots of early hype.

But the studio has been letting the ball drop. There has been 0 early marketing, the only thing that has been released are some pictures that don't reach outside the internet anyways, and a weak teaser with no money shots and no excitement. There has not been a full trailer released, and that won't come until May(which is only one month from the release). Ads on tv? Zip. Superbowl spots? Nope. On the other hand, movies MI:3, X3, and Da Vinci Code have been capatilizing and building early hype to a great extent.

Superman Returns will open pretty big, yes. But due to the marketing, it won't be huge. As of now, IMO it is likely to land in the 60-65 mil range as a success. So how with that opening, how will it fall under 200 mil? Because the legs will be bad enough. While Superman Returns might have decent WOM, it can't escape it's second weekend drop. It's going against Pirates 2, which is by far the biggest movie of the year. That has a great chance at opening past 115.4 mil, Spider-man's record.

With frontloadedness plus that, it'll drop 60%+ at least on it's 2nd weekend. The thing is, with a drop like that, even good WOM afterwards can't save you a good multiplier. If it opens to a very generous 65 mil opening weekend, it'll fall down to low to mid 20s on it's second. From there, not much more can be scrambled even with good -35% drops all after. When you fall down that low, it's a long way up. Calculate it up if you want, it just doesn't amount to enough.

...

So yes, join the club. Superman Returns will not pass 200 million. If I get a lot of members, I might lower it to 190 mil even.

Members:
1. Shack
2. Archie Gates
3. matatonio
4. Snrub
5. Dr. Lecter
6. Outatime
7. Dr. Malcom
8. Libs
9. SFERIC
10. trixster
11. Box
12. Moviedude
13. Squee
14. Erendis
15. Positive Jon
16. baumer72
17. MadGez
18. Rolling Thunder
19. RogueONE
20. Daniel Raedts
21. BennyBlanco

It has a shot at falling short of $200 million, but I think it'll just pass the mark.

Something between Batman Begins to War of the Worlds gross is more likely but theres a chance it may fall short. Passing 240 million is short of pushing it

You make some interesting points. for the life of me i cant understand why there hasnt been a full trailer out by now, but with that said i still think superman can make it over 200 million and end up with a total of 210 million. What i think is ridiculous is the 300 million plus crowd. They are in for some huge dissapointments

It'll top $200m (unless it's crap). By how much, that's the question...

i could see a 250 million club, but not a 200 million club.

I cannot support this.

ha

It'll eclipse the $200 million mark. If Fantastic Four, considered a piece of shit by many people, can make $154 million, this should pass the mark. Besides, it's a superhero movie. Forget about the whole X-Men, Superman, Batman debate. It'll be a big summer film, that will have it's legs cut down drastically thanks to POTC2. It should still make over $200 million though.

@ this thread

I'm in.

Well, the key phrase here is "Should Pass The Mark" doesn't mean it will because for the moment, the Marketing blows and for a movie coming out in 3 Months, there isn't 1 peep out about it and somehow, I just don't see this doing well.. Movie's off general summer hype nowadays, good or bad, can break 200 Million and that really doesn't seem like alot to.. I say it could come close to 250 Million if it's lucky, but no more.. Anything less would be considered a massive disappointment...

ill join this club

even though it has a very good chance of barely passing it

Count me in!

snrub. stop joining every club.

superman had no chance of making less than 200 million. sadly, the marketing for this film has been utterly butterly shit! so its possible.

but i'm part of the 250 mil club even though i don't think it'll make it.

I'm with Sad Clown that it'll make something between Batman Begins and WotW. I don't think it's possible for it to make under 200m, but it won't make much more.

Joy

Not all the big movies this summer are going to be big hits, something's gotta give.

Da Vinci Code, MI3, Pirates 2 all have big stars and big hype. That leaves X3 and Superman Returns if we're looking for something to be the weak link in the chain. My younger relatives and friends all say they can't wait for X3 and I have yet to hear anyone say anything about anticipating Superman. Plus Superman has the weakest star power of any big movie this summer.

So that's why I joined.

I think it might barely pass it, but for now, I am IN.

I'm hedging my bets.

I'm in.

Im not in and will never be in,ill make a bet with anyone here,any kind of bet except $$$.

I am in. Who cares about superman anymore? I didn't see Fantastic Four and don't plan to, but that looked like a "fun" summer movie with pretty people. SR has had no marketing, so i couldn't even say if it looks "fun" or not.

I have never been a superman fan, as he is such a boring character. His powers were boring, as he was basically unbeatable, and the character of clark kent/superman was always about as interesting as the wall in front of me. It is a dull fucking wall.

I think it will fall short with about $185-190M.

Alright, the club is going strong.