After Dreamgirls I'm not too sure how open AMPAS really is to musicals in the bigger categories, but this does have the surprise factor compared to the mild disappointment for Dreamgirls. Still, I'm ruling out Picture for the moment, though Travolta can get in if they push him for supporting, not lead. Costumes also seems like a lock, and Make-Up if they consider more than prosthetics. And of course Song. So:

Predicting:
Costumes
Make-Up
Song

Very possible:
Art Direction
Supporting Actor (Travolta)
Sound

If beloved:
Picture
Adapted Screenplay
Editing
Cinematography

Edna Turnblad is definitely a supporting role but I think it was bumped up to lead in the Tonys because Harvey Fierstein is such a huge Broadway personality.

One problem is that the director has basically zero shot at getting a nom. Yeah, Chicago was Marshall's directing debut, but being unknown is much better than having Cheaper by the Dozen 2, Pacifier, The Wedding Planner, and Bringing Down the House all on one's resume. And academy generally thinks musicals direct themselves anyway. Then adding the fact that the emphasis on Hairspray is its harmless fun, it won't be moved higher than contending for the 5th BP spot.

However, everything else looks in great shape. Song is a lock, as long as they're eligible. Costume Design and Art Direction are close to lock. Travolta is very likely since I think he will get plenty of precursor attentions. GG is a given, BFCA score of 87 is pretty good too, especially if it wins the Film of the Month, and it should contend for PGA, WGA, and SAG Ensemble.

On another note, what a lineup we're going to have for GG Musical/Comedy this year with Ratatouille, Knocked Up, and Hairspray already.

You're probably right about the Oscar buzz, but I never understood why when a movie is "just fun" that it is disqualified from awards. Why are comedies also ignored? Why are "serious" dramatic movies so deserving? Shouldn't super serious worldchanging documentaries be even more award worthy?

Hairspray is a great, great movie -- best of the year so far!

Maybe the Golden Globes (which I don't watch) got it right with a separate Musical/Comedy category...

because the academy sucks. I figured this out long ago.

It looks like if any song from Hairspray got a nod, it would be "Come So Far (Got So Far To Go)," which was written for the movie.

I Know Where I've Been was the film's weakest point. It was too out of place for the upbeat musical.

I actually thought it was one of the stronger points because they were tackling anti-segregation issues, and they needed something of that sort to get it right thematically.

As for the movie and its Oscar chances, the more I think about it, the less likely it sounds. New Line will push Rendition even though it's one of four films coming out before the end of the year that deals with the politics of war (the others being In the Valley of Elah, Lions for Lambs, and Charlie Wilson's War), and on top of that, Dreamgirls was a big Oscar gun designed to sweep the night, and yet it failed to do so much as even get the Best Picture nomination. Since Hairspray has such an early release date and isn't an obvious contender, I think the Academy will pass over it in a lot of places. I'm thinking it will snag the song nomination and maybe another technical one, but its chances at Picture are zero. The big problem is in who else they could be rewarding. Given the resat of his career, they're not going to nominate Adam Shankman for directing, which really weakens its chances with a Picture nomination, and Nikki Blonsky is really the only one I see with any slim chance of getting nominated for acting (Really, I can't see Travolta getting it for his role), which isn't happening unless the big name contenders in the lead actress category really, really disappoint.

good chances

I could definitely see it getting lots of Oscar attention...if Sweeney Todd wasn't around right before the Oscars to kill every memory of it.

I would be shocked if I liked Sweeney Todd more than Hairspray.

Me too - - but wouldn't that be great though if it came true? Two great musicals in one year!

Yes, since the Academy ALWAYS goes for Burton crap.

...and Across the Universe.

That doesn't change the fact that the Academy never goes for Burton.

Considering how Ed Wood only won two Academy Awards and wasn't nominated over Four Weddings and a Funeral or Quiz Show for BP or Johnny Depp for Best Actor, yeah, pretty much.

crowdpleaser.

I think it will get best picture, but only around 6 nominations total ("only" since that would be lower than moulin rouge/dreamgirls/chicago.)

"Frothy"? "Silly"?

Those are far from the adjectives I would choose to describe Hairspray...

How about "joyous", "celebratory", "radiant", "dynamic", "optimistic", "vivacious", "idealistic", "transcendent", or "life-affirming"?

*bump*

After the SAG eliminated several movies from contention, this movie is very much still in the race. A PGA nomination looks very likely at this point as well. I think the overall field is weak enough and there's enough passion in this film such that this won't be another Dreamgirls.

Michael Clayton and Juno eliminated due to their screener availability.

Sweeney Todd and Atonement lowered but not eliminated.

That pretty much explains the weirdness. Michael Clayton and Juno missing Ensemble on their own wasn't likely.

No, Michael Clayton and Juno didn't have screener problems like Sweeney Todd, Atonement, & There Will Be Blood. So them missing Ensemble means the actors purposely chose to vote films like 3:10 to Yuma, American Gangster, and Hairspray over it. So if they couldn't make it over those films, there is no way they can make it over both those films and the unscreened films as well.

Go, Hairspray, Go!!!!!