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Bryan_smith
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Wed Nov 24, 2004 7:13 pm Posts: 2120
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Squeeks wrote: I think we're looking at a ratio of 500.
yeah, defiantley not... yesterdays ratio didn't even come close to that....
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Tue Jul 03, 2007 9:27 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm Posts: 25109 Location: San Mateo, CA
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Transformers - 5867 (1845), +287 (+67), A-
License to Wed - 237 (58),+16 (+4), C+
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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Tue Jul 03, 2007 9:47 pm |
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Biggestgeekever
I heet the canadian!
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am Posts: 5192 Location: The Great _______
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I expect Transformers to get it's biggest increase later tonight. My theater had 6 sell-outs tonight, all from 8:30 on.
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Tue Jul 03, 2007 9:48 pm |
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Biggestgeekever
I heet the canadian!
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am Posts: 5192 Location: The Great _______
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Transformers - 6185 (1962), +318 (+117), A-
License to Wed - 250 (60),+13 (+2), C+
Should it follow the same path for the rest of the night, it'll get to around 7,500 ratings. I expect it to go up with later increases, so I think 10,000 is still in play.
Or I could just be spewing newbie BS, no way to tell. 
Last edited by Biggestgeekever on Tue Jul 03, 2007 10:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Tue Jul 03, 2007 10:48 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 40266
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Are you guys calculating the ratio with the total reviews, or the ones added today?
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Tue Jul 03, 2007 10:54 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37162 Location: The Graveyard
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Biggestgeekever wrote: Transformers - 6185 (1962), +318 (+117), A- License to Wed - 250 (60),+13 (+2), C+ Should it follow the same path for the rest of the night, it'll get to around 7,500 ratings. I expect it to go up with later increases, so I think 10,000 is still in play. Or I could just be spewing newbie BS, no way to tell. 
No...
Say it gets 300 ratings for all the remaining updates (unlikely), it would be at...7385. I'll say it will get 7250.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Tue Jul 03, 2007 10:59 pm |
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Biggestgeekever
I heet the canadian!
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am Posts: 5192 Location: The Great _______
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Corpse wrote: Biggestgeekever wrote: Transformers - 6185 (1962), +318 (+117), A- License to Wed - 250 (60),+13 (+2), C+ Should it follow the same path for the rest of the night, it'll get to around 7,500 ratings. I expect it to go up with later increases, so I think 10,000 is still in play. Or I could just be spewing newbie BS, no way to tell.  No... Say it gets 300 ratings for all the remaining updates (unlikely), it would be at...7385. I'll say it will get 7250. There's five more updates (right?), so if it gets 300 for each of them, it'll be at 7,685.  I've already made it clear that I expect the big updates to come later, since that's when most of the sellouts were for my area.
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Tue Jul 03, 2007 11:01 pm |
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Biggestgeekever
I heet the canadian!
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am Posts: 5192 Location: The Great _______
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Shack wrote: Are you guys calculating the ratio with the total reviews, or the ones added today? Pretty sure Xiayun is using just ones today.
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Tue Jul 03, 2007 11:06 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37162 Location: The Graveyard
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Biggestgeekever wrote: Corpse wrote: Biggestgeekever wrote: Transformers - 6185 (1962), +318 (+117), A- License to Wed - 250 (60),+13 (+2), C+ Should it follow the same path for the rest of the night, it'll get to around 7,500 ratings. I expect it to go up with later increases, so I think 10,000 is still in play. Or I could just be spewing newbie BS, no way to tell.  No... Say it gets 300 ratings for all the remaining updates (unlikely), it would be at...7385. I'll say it will get 7250. There's five more updates (right?), so if it gets 300 for each of them, it'll be at 7,685.  I've already made it clear that I expect the big updates to come later, since that's when most of the sellouts were for my area.
Opps. Yes. I'll go with 7550 now.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Tue Jul 03, 2007 11:11 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22182 Location: Places
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hmmm....considering this includes 8 pmers....this is disappointing total. i thoughtitd break atleast 10,000
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Tue Jul 03, 2007 11:20 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 40266
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But how is that possible? If we use a probably 4,000 number, a 200 ratio would give it only 20 mil. Screen reports are saying over 30. Even a low 150 ratio is only 26 mil.
Think DP07 is right about a low ratio, or Yahoo is screwed up from the Monday number.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Tue Jul 03, 2007 11:44 pm |
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Biggestgeekever
I heet the canadian!
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am Posts: 5192 Location: The Great _______
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Shack wrote: But how is that possible? If we use a probably 4,000 number, a 200 ratio would give it only 20 mil. Screen reports are saying over 30. Even a low 150 ratio is only 26 mil.
Think DP07 is right about a low ratio, or Yahoo is screwed up from the Monday number. I think the monday number was only 1190, so, if it gets to 7,500, and has 30mil for today, the ratio will be 210.
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Tue Jul 03, 2007 11:54 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm Posts: 25109 Location: San Mateo, CA
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Transformers - 6582 (2081), +397 (+119), A-
License to Wed - 262 (64), +14 (+4), C+
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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Tue Jul 03, 2007 11:57 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm Posts: 25109 Location: San Mateo, CA
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I think a ratio of 200 overall is about right. A couple of points in its favor: the high A- grade (indicating fewer fake reviews) and a consistent written percentage (indicating less initial rush factor).
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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Tue Jul 03, 2007 11:59 pm |
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Speevy
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 11, 2005 9:12 am Posts: 3139
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I think the fact that Transformers is still at an A- is very impressive. I think we should start keeping track of how long a movie stays at an A- before dropping to a B+. It could possibly help with determining WOM. LFODH for example stayed at A- for a couple of days before dropping to a B+. And its run has so far reflected the great WOM. Ditto for Ratatouille.
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Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:03 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm Posts: 25109 Location: San Mateo, CA
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I think the number of reviews it stays at A- is more important than the number of days considering Transformers will far outpace the other two. Die Hard already dropped to B+ when it hit 6,000 reviews, while Ratatouille hasn't hit 6,000 yet. So Transformers is currently ahead of Ratatouille, and it already occupies the spot for Top Rated Film of all time.
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:07 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 40266
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Biggestgeekever wrote: Shack wrote: But how is that possible? If we use a probably 4,000 number, a 200 ratio would give it only 20 mil. Screen reports are saying over 30. Even a low 150 ratio is only 26 mil.
Think DP07 is right about a low ratio, or Yahoo is screwed up from the Monday number. I think the monday number was only 1190, so, if it gets to 7,500, and has 30mil for today, the ratio will be 210.
? I thought the number in brackets was Tuesday... argh confused.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:10 am |
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Speevy
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 11, 2005 9:12 am Posts: 3139
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xiayun wrote: I think the number of reviews it stays at A- is more important than the number of days considering Transformers will far outpace the other two. Die Hard already dropped to B+ when it hit 6,000 reviews, while Ratatouille hasn't hit 6,000 yet.
That's an even better idea. I think it would be a great way to separate the WOM of the movies that get a B+ at Yahoo.
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Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:10 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm Posts: 25109 Location: San Mateo, CA
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Shack wrote: Biggestgeekever wrote: Shack wrote: But how is that possible? If we use a probably 4,000 number, a 200 ratio would give it only 20 mil. Screen reports are saying over 30. Even a low 150 ratio is only 26 mil.
Think DP07 is right about a low ratio, or Yahoo is screwed up from the Monday number. I think the monday number was only 1190, so, if it gets to 7,500, and has 30mil for today, the ratio will be 210. ? I thought the number in brackets was Tuesday... argh confused.
That's # of written reviews. Both include the whole 28 hours.
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:12 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 40266
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Yeah I just picked up on that after my post.
Definitley looks like 30-35 range combined Yahoo and screen reports, would be surprised if it wasn't.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:15 am |
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Box
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 12:52 am Posts: 25990
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There's a very easy explanation for all this: DP has hacked into Yahoo and changed all the grades to A-. You know, those Transformer crazies will stoop to anything.
As for these ratios, I've spent enough time on Yahoo to know that Transformers' ratio shall be 800. So sub-$15m opening. What a pathetic bomb.
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Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:15 am |
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Box
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 12:52 am Posts: 25990
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Shack wrote: Yeah I just picked up on that after my post.
Definitley looks like 30-35 range combined Yahoo and screen reports, would be surprised if it wasn't.
You're a pathetic bomb.
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Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:22 am |
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MARVEL_ROCKS
Forum General
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 6:11 pm Posts: 8202
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^ common Box just give Transformers a chance. I hated it too up until POTC3. But i was converted by the trailer attached to shrek 3.
It was the best summer movie ever.
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Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:29 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 40266
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Box wrote: Shack wrote: Yeah I just picked up on that after my post.
Definitley looks like 30-35 range combined Yahoo and screen reports, would be surprised if it wasn't. You're a pathetic bomb.
Well, I have been anti-Transformers for months and I do think if it opens that high it drops like a rock Wednesday and Thursday 
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:30 am |
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Biggestgeekever
I heet the canadian!
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am Posts: 5192 Location: The Great _______
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I think I'm going to go against the indicators and say that Transformers will debut below 30mil, to around 27mil. It's yahoo buzz score is so high, I think the ratio will be above 200.
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Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:33 am |
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