My comment was the joke. It won't change my life if HP5 surpasses AWE. I won't be getting any richer.

That sounds about right. Probably the only Potter film that can beat 1 billion is the seventh.

The 6th may do it..... they need to amp up the fact that this is the last one before the last one

Well what's the point of box office tracking if we have that mentality

I don't think it'll surpass HP1's overseas gross, afterall, Pirates 2 with no competition couldn't get there. But it'll be higher than the other HPs. Somewhere around $600-$650m is likely.

UNITED KINGDOM Preview

June 29 - Shrek 3
Jul 4 - Die Hard 4
Jul 12 - Harry Potter 5
Jul 20 - Hairspray
Jul 27 - Transformers, The Simpsons
Aug 3 - Evan Almighty

Ever since the first movie, the Potter flicks haven't been able to deliver the same sort of grosses. Although GOF increased over HP3, it wasn't by much and the franchise hasn't seen a 50m+ pound grosser since HP2.

The country has been in buzz mode for the past couple of months, awaiting anxiously for the arrival of the 7th book. Though competition is pretty strong this year. Unlike in 2004 when Shrek 2 opened after Potter, this year, Shrek 3 opens 2 weeks in front of Potter and Transformers/Simpsons (insane i know, both of them on the same weekend) arrives 2 weeks after it. The first two weeks are vital.

A strong opening is pretty much gauranteed, the franchise is a model of consistency at the highest level. In terms of pounds HP3, HP2 and HP1 occupy the top 3 positions, while HP4 sits at #6 without the huge previews which some of its predecessors enjoyed. With a 4-Day opening weekend, this should easily bust 15m pounds for the strongest opening of the year. In terms of all-time gross, i think it can beat Pirates 3 and Shrek 3 which is looking quite shaky in some of the European markets it has opened in so far. Though due to the competiton, i don't it will be beating HP4.

Harry Potter 5: OOTP - £16m (US$31m) // £47m (US$91m)

Titanic - £4,805,270 (US$8m) // £69,025,646 (US$113) = 14.37x
Harry Potter 1: PS - £16,335,627 (US$23m) // £66,096,060 (US$91.5m) = 4.04x
Lord of the Rings: FOTR - £11,058,045 (US$15.9m) // £63,051,172 (US$89.5m) = 5.7x
Lord of the Rings: ROTK - £15,021,761 (US$20.9m) // £61,062,348 (US$109m) = 4.06x
Lord of the Rings: TTT - £13,063,560 (US$26.5m) // £57,654,384 (US$93m) = 4.41x
James Bond: Casino Royale - £13,370,969 (US$25.3m) // £55,495,547 ($109m) = 4.15x
Harry Potter 2: COS - £18,871,829 (US$29.8m) // £54,780,731 (US$85.7m) = 2.9x
Pirates Of The Caribbean 2: DMC - £13,740,784 (US$25.4m) // £51,998,090 (US$98m) = 3.78x
Star Wars 1: PM - £9,512,295 (US$14.9m) // £51,063,811 (US$83m) = 5.37x
Harry Potter 4: GOF - £14,933,901 (US$25.6m) // £48,769,962 (US$86m) = 3.26x
Shrek 2 - £16,220,752 (US$29.6m) // £48,104,138 (US$88.1m) = 3x
Harry Potter 3: POA - £23,882,688 (US$43.7m) // £46,077,489 (US$84.5m) = 1.93x
Pirates Of The Caribbean 3: At World’s End - £13.4m (US$26.6m) // £44m est (US$87m)
Chronicles of Narnia: TLTW&TW - £8,884,111 ($15.6m) // £43,903,853 (US$77m) = 4.94x

I expect it to make £17+ million for the opening in UK. Hype will be through the roof and it does have a chance to pass £50 million in total.

GOF would have easily gotten 55-60 million pounds but Narnia was a 40 million pound grosser as well.

The thing is I don't think Transformers will do that well in England so that won't hurt Potter much. Simpsons is another matter. I am not sure how bit it is in England. Of course the two combined will hurt. I think it will defintely get Past GOF's gross adjusted in U.S dollars.

HP4 had the holidays, HP5 won't have that, it'll have a lot of competition starting from weekend 3....Transformers and Simpsons can combine to Narnia levels...

Also forgot to mention that Die hard 4 opens the weekend before Potter

With some of the reviews that it's getting so far......legs for this may not be as strong as HP4.

The reviews seem to be very good...what am I missing?

It has only gotten one bad review. 4 of the reviews in England has been very postive. Variety was a B+ review. It has 7 postive reviews right now out there and only one negative one. I am not worried about the critics.

An article i've read on an Australian site says that the majority of critics who have seen it though that it was good but not the best Potter pic so far. It also lacked action and was slow to burn...

Well, they could refering to mostly Australian critcs, although I haven't seen any reviews even from there. WB has an embargo on reviews, they don't want any posted until the 8th I believe. The article could also be refering to the HR review or the Variety review. Honestly, I think the article you refering to copied one like this
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jh ... ter125.xml

That thing started floating around the net last week, but it was based on like what two people thought including one on the RT forum. The funny thing is the Telegraph posted a review two days ago calling this the best Potter film yet. I really doubt most critics are going to share their opinions before they post their reviews. Although a few have gotten leaked like that Travers is going to give it 3.5 stars.

Can't seem to find the article anymore.....bad, really wanted to show you guys....

HP4 was excellent, I hope this is on the same level....

I think it will be better, of course I like darker films. This movie will have less action and expect a dark, broading movie.

Don't know about darker is better....have to see the movie first.

I like something like HP4 which was a great balance...

Well with certain movies it has to be darker, with like Empire Strikes Back, Revenge of the Sith, Order of the Phoenix and the next Half Blood price they need to be darker becaue the story calls for it. Goblet fire was balanced more so because Voldemort hadn't regained power yet.

I don't mind if it's dark, just don't make it dreary and frumpy like Harry Potter 3...

GERMANY Preview

Jul 12 - Harry Potter 5
Jul 19 - Next
Jul 26 - The Simpsons Movie
Aug 2 - Transformers
Aug 9 - Fantastic Four 2

It's a bit up and down for Potter in Germany so far. The original still remains the largest of the franchise in admissions, but it has been a downhill since then until HP4 recorded a slight uptick.

HP4 opened in mid-November 2005 to the 2nd largest opening weekend of all-time (in US$) and the largest for the franchise overall. It faced little competition for the first 3 weeks; even the arrival of Narnia/King Kong in December did not impact Potter in a major way. Contrastingly, HP3 opened in TDAT's 2nd week...but had little competition for the next 4 weeks until the arrival Shrek 2.

Things seem to be much harder this time around, Shrek 3 and Die Hard 4 have already opened to strong numbers...and Potter will be facing strong competition starting from week 3 with Simpsons, and then Transformers, Fantastic Four 2 and Rush Hour 3. Hence we are seeing that Mark and his folks are predicting around 6m admissions for this pic.

For me, I think it'll be the strongest opener of franchise but will suffer big drops along the lines of Harry Potter 3.

Harry Potter 5: OOTP - 2.7m adms. (US$24m) // 6.8m adms. (US$60m)

Harry Potter 1: PS - 2.590.464 adms. (US$14.8m) // 12.556.007 adms. (US$68m) - 4.84x
Lord of the Rings: FOTR - 1.813.898 adms. (US$14.7m) // 11.831.850 adms. (US$70.8m) - 6.5x
Lord of the Rings: TTT - 2.021.239 adms. (US$19.8m) // 10.691.738 adms. (US$76m) - 5.3x
Lord of the Rings: TTT - 2.050.755 adms. (US$23.2m) // 10.430.320 adms. (US$90m) - 5.1x
Harry Potter 2: COS - 2.489.952 adms. (US$16.28m) // 9.693.596 adms. (US$60m) = 3.9x
Jurassic Park 1 - 1.742.937 adms. (US$10.5m) // 9.367.216 adms. (US$56.3m) = 5.38x
Ice Age 2: The Meltdown - 2.395.588 adms. (US$17.15m) // 8.732.937 adms. (US$63m) = 3.67x
Finding Nemo - 2.032.136 adms. (US$13.3m) // 8.678.707 adms. (US$56.5m) = 4.27x
Star Wars 1: PM - 1.786.960 adms. (US$12.4m) // 8.044.788 adms. (US$55m) = 4.5x
Harry Potter 4: GOF - 2.685.158 adms. (US$21.7m) // 7.915.895 adms. (US$63m) = 2.95x
Pirates Of The Caribbean 2: DMC - 1.924.778 adms. (US$18m) // 7.144.107 adms. (US$61m) = 3.7x
Madagascar - 1.226.475 adms. (US$8.6m) // 6.704.558 adms. (US$43m) ; 5.48x
Harry Potter 3: POA - 1.987.285 adms. (US$15.27m) // 6.545.279 adms. (US$48.7m) - 3.3x
Pirates Of The Caribbean 3: AWE - 1,860,775 adms. (US$16.6m) // 6m adms. (US$60m) est. = 3.2x
Pirates Of The Caribbean: TCOTBP - 1.193.025 adms. (US$11.6m) // 5.978.657 adms. (US$40.6m) = 5x
Star Wars 2: AOTC - 1.846.885 adms. (US$11.8m) // 5.699.678 adms. (US$35.2m) = 3.08x
Star Wars 3: ROTS - 1.964.960 adms. (US$17.8m) // 5.620.503 adms. (US$46.8m) = 2.86x

Life couldn't get better for Potter fans

By Ivy Farguheson
Post-Crescent staff writer
http://www.postcrescent.com/apps/pbcs.d ... 80500/1029

In a summer that has featured "Spider-Man 3," "Shrek the Third" and "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End," movie sequels have held their own, breaking many box-office records.

"A lot of excitement is due to the release of the last book in a couple of weeks," said Carlo Petrick, communications manager for Marcus Theatres, which operates Hollywood Cinema in Grand Chute. "There is a natural tie there."

It's the summer of Harry Potter. And it's the first time in Potter history that a movie and book about the boy wizard have been released so close together.

That convergence of movie and book thrills Rowling's fans.

Warner Bros. executive Diana Nelson says the studio scheduled a summer release knowing that it could coincide with the final book.

"We're thrilled that it did," she says. "It truly will be Harry Potter month."

But could the final book, in which Rowling has said two characters will die, overshadow the fifth movie?

"Only in the best of ways," Nelson says. "We've always said this franchise is driven by the books."

Carol Fitzgerald, president of BookReporter.com, a Web site for book discussions, says the convergence of book and movie "will only build excitement."

Paul Dergarabedian, president of Media by Numbers, which analyzes Hollywood box office trends, sees no "downside for either the book or movie" in what he calls "nirvana in the Harry Potter universe."

Potter fans have made their way to theaters in the past in record numbers. On the worldwide box-office list, three of the Harry Potter films are in the all-time top 10 in gross sales.

"Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" will be up against the heavy hitters at the movie theater, but with an added advantage.

With the upcoming book launch, communities around the world are preparing for festivities that have come to surround Harry Potter book releases. With the addition of films to the enterprise, many celebrations include a film festival.

HBO also is playing the last installment, "Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire," three times before the fifth film's opening.

"We anticipate that (the film) will do as well as the other films have done," Petrick said. "There is a lot of excitement and anticipation for this film. With the release in the summer with the kids out of school, it has a built-in audience."

With summer vacation in full swing, children of all ages will be able to attend many of the local Harry Potter fests, which all culminate with the final book's release at midnight July 21.

2010 would be in keeping with the pattern that has been established for the past 6 flicks.....


============

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/ ... 02,00.html

DANIEL Radcliffe cannot remember who, but the other day he heard someone associated with the Harry Potter films say the seventh and final instalment in the franchise would be released in 2010.

"If that's the case, it will have been 10 years of my life and, of course, that's a huge chunk," says the 17-year-old British actor who plays author J.K. Rowling's boy wizard.

"It will be the end of an era so, of course, I will be sad, but I imagine it will be quite exciting to move outside that world.

"A lot of excitement is due to the release of the last book in a couple of weeks," said Carlo Petrick, communications manager for Marcus Theatres, which operates Hollywood Cinema in Grand Chute. "There is a natural tie there."

Hey! That's the theater I go to! It's like 10 minutes from my apartment!

I think they will decide that based on OOTP. If OOTP does like 270 they could say Potter isn't made for the Summer and movie to the Holiday in 2010.