5:04 pm



ight zingbabe.

He means that the number hasn't changed since the actual half hour update. Notice how if you click the link, it still shows the same number of reviews. Yahoo sometimes updates as they come along, and that's when we should only update at the half hour point for comparison. If it doesn't update continuously, it's okay.

I'm surprised by its very good user grade (read some pretty lukewarm if not downright negative reviews today). Hopefully that will translate to good legs, 'cause it doesn't look like it'll open with a bang...

That A- is very promising! When was the last major film to have an A-??

So are we still looking at a $10m opening day?

Live Free or Die Hard- 775 (251) +60 (+15), A-

By any chance what would the logical friday increase for LFODH? I was thinking of something between Rocky Balboa and Batman Begins range around 55%? Thursday drop of 40%, saturday increase about 20% and sunday drop of 25%

-40% Thursday, +55% Friday, +15% Saturday, -27% Sunday. That's how I had it.

the wom i think makes it got a 65-70% fri increase and 25% sun drop.

Live Free or Die Hard - 836 (263) +61 (+12), A-

That scenerio seems reasonable. If it got a 10M Wednesday, that would give it around 28M for
the 3-day, and 44M for the 5 day. A bit disappointing compared to tracking.

I think analysing tracking numbers has been bad for film lovers and box office trackers like ourselves. They are either spot on and ruin the surprise or they are too high and set up a film for dissapointment.

A $45m opening 5-days would be quite solid. $50-$55m would be preferable but if this does indeed have such great WOM then it should do well in the long run. No matter what the film does in its first week - the target is $100m. If it doesnt reach this number then it will be deemed somewhat of a dissapointment.

My biggest gripe is that the films with the most BO potential have been clumped together this summer and its just plain stupid on the part of the studios.

I agree. It won't hurt Transformers and Harry Potter as much as it hurts medium sized films
like Die Hard. It would be nice if they dialed up the quality and dialed down the quantity, but the
trend is in the opposite direction.

Live Free or Die Hard - 895 (278) +59 (+15), A-

The increases are really consistent. Looks like 1,200-1,300.

Two hours:

Live Free or Die Hard - 953 (325), +58 (+47), A-

Clogged for now.

That A- will no doubt come down to a B+ soon, but a B+ still indicates good WOM. Certainly deserves the success.

With the solid evening pace, I'd say $8.5M-$10M sounds right, which would be a solid OD.

Live Free or Die Hard - 1067 (356), +114 (+31), A-

Do you guys really think this would get a 150 ratio? When I went, my friends and I were the only ones under the age of 25. Most were in their mid to late thirties. Wouldn't the ratio be closer to 125-130? This could simply be my theater but I've been hearing from others as well.

If it were a Friday opener, I'd say yes. Wednesday ratios often are a shade higher.

Live Free or Die Hard - 1175 (375), +108 (+19), A-

I see about $9m at this point. Encouraging grade, though, even if it'll drop down to a B+.

What is considered the last update for the night? If the last update is 4 AM eastern time then this could very well get to 1500.

3:30am EST, so two more updates. I don't think the last two will be over 100 each, though. I hope I'm wrong but I think it'll slow down a bit and finish around 1,300-1,350. It could still crack $10m, definitely.

Well it's at 1281 at the moment and it's only a little after 2 EST. I don't see how it could make only 20-70 reviews for the next hour and a half. I would think that 1400 would be the minimum.

Live Free or Die Hard - 1374 (395), +199 (+20), A-

I stand corrected.

Final:

Live Free or Die Hard - 1408 (411), +34 (+16), A-

I'd go with $9m as well.