I think it will get 13 nods, with a small chance of breaking the record and getting 14. The problematic spot will be supporting actor. If the campaign can convince the voters to only support Alec Baldwin and avoids splitting votes with Alan Alda and John C. Reilly it has a shot at 14...

Alec Baldwin getting nominated (again, in my opinion) would be ridiculous. He wasn't bad, but his role was seriously less than 5 minutes. There was also nothing stand out-ish about it like Judi Dench had. If a supporting actor from The Aviator gets nominated, it should be Alan Alda.

Neither of them will get a nom.

Alda could get a nom. Best Supporting Actor is a super weak category this year. *shrug*

IMO Baldwin would have the best chance. He was loved for his turn in The Cooler but snubbes and Oscar voters usually keep that in mind the next year

Ya, there is no chance for Baldwin to get in. If there will be any nod in this category it will be Alan Alda no doubt.
I actually think he's the 6th man, just outside the top 5, but could easily be drawn in if the Aviator bandwagon is strong enough.

By the way the record is not 13. Titanic was nominated for 14 nominations and walked away with 11.

Aviator will get....

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Original Screenplay
Best Visual Effects
Best Make-Up
Best Costume Design (if elligible)
Best Art Direction
Best Score
Best Sound (only 1 of them)
Best Editing (a little iffy)
Best Cinematography

If Alan Alda gets nominated or if it's nominated for a song, then it will tie or even pass the record.

It doesn't need Supporting Actor to get to 14, if it can sweep the tech nominations:

Picture
Director
Actor
Supporting Actress
Original Screenplay
Art Direction
Cinematography
Costume Design
Film Editing
Original Score
Makeup
Sound
Sound Editing
Visual Effect

I don't think Editing is iffy. Editing is normally the one tech category that matches with best picture the most. Two years I was dismayed that the two matched exactly as if editors couldn't separate their own art and the overall quality of a film. Editing nom is a lock for a frontrunner.

Not only Titanic, but also All About Eve managed to receive 14 Oscar noms (it won 6 of them).

As for now I go with 12 noms for The Aviator.

I don't think The Aviator is one of those big films that gets 13 or 14 nominations. The Aviator doesn't compare to Titanic or Fellowship of the Ring or All About Eve. I see it getting 11 or 12 nominations personally.

In order for The Aviator to get the nomination record like this thread asks it would have to get 15 NOMINATIONS. That is NOT happening.

PEACE, Mike

There is no way, they won't nominate Thelma Shoonmaker. She is as important to any Scorsese movie than Scorsese himself. ..

@Mike Q.: There are two criterias for a big nomination sweep. You need to have a movie with scope for the technical categories and you need good acting for the four acting categories. Aviator has both, so I think it has an outside chance of tying the 14 nomination record. Plus: Well-loved movies can get nods in technical categories they don't seem to be an obvious choice. So since Aviator is already one of the finalists in Make-Up and Special Effects , they probably go for it, although stuff like Sky Captain, Spider-Man 2 and Day After Tomorrow seem to be more obvious VFX-Choices.

The record is 14 nominations

Didn't I write that? :wink:
(I just keep forgetting it, damn!)

I think The Aviator will get these noms:

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound
Best Original Screenplay
Best Make-Up
Best Costume Design
Best Cinematography
Best Visual Effects
Best Editing

No Score? Come on.... for a major motion picture, possibly the front-runner and a score by Howard Shore who won twice in the past 3 years? I don't think he'll win again but a nod is almost certain.

Yeah, he's the new John Williams, but more importantly: Art Direction. With the Cocoanut Grove, the construction halls and all the stuff it should be a lock in that category

Score is possible, but since I believe that it'll get 12 noms, I excluded it. I'd replace Visual Effects with Score, but I know that the Academy members have a bad habit of nominating at least one Best Picture nominee in that category if it's possible. Just like it happened to last year's M&C (seriously, M&C's effects were supposed to be better than X2's and T3's? C'mon!)

And I really doubt it'll get an Art Direction nom.

Can you explain why you doubt this? I think this is one of the most assured nominations and probable victories for The Aviator.

Because of the competition. While the art direction in i may be good, it is not extraordianary from what I have seen. And if gets that, then it won't get Sound Editing (sound, yeah, but not Sound Editing)

No supporting actor in The Aviator deserves to be nominated.
These are the catagories i think the film deserves to be nominated:
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Editing
Best Cinematagraphy
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Screenplay
Best Costume design
Best Set design
Best visual effects
Best Score