Shamelessly stolen from Oscarwatch, who stole it from GoldDerby...

http://www.forums-oscarwatch.com/forums ... adid=21569

No word on how many nominees they will have (2? 3? 5?)

The Aviator
Dawn of the Dead
Hellboy
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
The Passion of the Christ

So as long as there are two nominees, The Passion of the Christ will at least get one nomination. If there are three nominees it will probably be Lemony Snicket. Hellboy deserves its nomination to an extent, but will unlikely be nominated.

You would think Phantom of the Opera could be nominated here... (just thoguht I would throw that out there).

The Aviator will of course win, and based on the look of Leo's face after the airplane accident, and the other more invisible make up tricks, I would say it is well deserved.

I hope for some love for Rick Baker!

If they'll have 3 noms, I go with:

The Aviator (*cough oscar sweep cough*)
The Passion of the Christ
Hellboy

Nah, The Aviator won't sweep IMO.

1. Howard won't win Score again this year (although it's a great score and will be nominated). If he did that would be absolutely utterly amazing.

2. It won't win Visual Effects, if nominated (which, I know, goes against all logic in Visual Effects... Spider-Man 2 will win even though the Best Picture contendor is nominated in VE, and that will be a first).

3. It won't win Origional Screenplay I imagine, and it might not win Sound (if nominated, Sound Effects Editing maybe).

4. Leo still has to overcome Foxx and the wave of critics and Hollywood folks who are praising him, which, even for Leo, is going to be mighty difficult. Leo has a chance though.

I can actually see the Passion winning this category unless it is indeed being purposefully shut out in the awards season.

The Aviator will win this category and deservingly so. I'd have Lemony Snicket and Passion as the other two nominees.

I meant a nominations sweep

It certainly won't win Best Original Screenplay and Visual Effects (unles it'll be a shame win like when Gladiator won against Hollow Man :? )

Well, when your visual effects are used in a gaudy manner, like in Spiderman 2, or are part of a crap film, like Hollow Man, then they really don't deserve to win now do they? The effects should be in service of the story. This year, The Aviator is the best example of how you perfectly integrate special effects.

With the Aviator on the make-up shortlist, I can know envision 12 nominations for it, which is fantastic.

But the catgory is not Best Use of Visual Effects, but Best Visual Effects, It shouldn't matter what film they are used in, but how good the effects actually are. Hollow Man had by far and away better visual effects than Gladiator and were more complicated too.

I will not argue that Hollow Man didn't have great effects, it surely did, I'm just saying that the Academy will tend to favour the better quality film when it comes down to it. I am not convinced that the smooth integration of the effects is not a factor in the decision, which is why most times when you see a best picture nominee also nominated for the visual effects award, then it almost always wins it. And when it comes to this year, forgetting about the quality of the film (which is debatable), Spiderman 2 definitely did not have the best visual effects from a purely technical standpoint.

I am not saying that this integration and the film quality is NOT a factor in the decision. I am saying that it SHOULDN'T be. Personally, I think that Spider-Man 2 will win because it had great effects AND it was a very well-liked and successful film.

As for the effects alone, I'd personally pick The Day after Tomorrow.

Well, there's so much that shouldn't be a factor in the decision. For instance the body of work an actor had before, but it always is. And personally, I think the Aviator effects were great. The crash over Beverly Hills was the best action scene of the year.
I also think Spider-Man 2 has the weakest chances since these are mostly effects which were seen in Spidey 1. They might be better, but the academy mostly honors new innovations

But back to the Make-Up topic, I think these five choices are very good. Hellboy, DOD, Snicket were great pieces of work

Re: Effects... if we're going based on quality and impact then The Aviator or Spider-Man shouldn't be nominated at all... Harry Potter's Buckbeak and seamless environments were far more difficult and more realistic than The Aviators phony flight sequences (which look bad considering Pearl Harbor did a better job years and years ago).


I think Million Dollar Baby should have been a nominee.

I think that DAT's tornadoes and I, Robot's Sonny certainly deserve the noms...

Maybe Sonny. I personally thought a lot of Day After Tomorrow was "been there seen that". CG tornados aren't really anything new :?

The only one I have it to compare to is Twister and DAT's tornadoes were surely done better.

The Passion will win this and it deserves it,The academy is going to award it atleast one oscar nom.

Passion deserves it. Really.

I am pissed, though, because I thought Phantom deserved a NOMINATION. Sheesh. Whatever. They obviously have some vandetta for Joel Shokemaker or whatever his name is. :-#

Everyone is saying Gerard Butler's face just looked like he had a bad case of acne. One of the main complaint's of Phantom (and there are many)

Here's to Dawn of the Dead getting a nomination!