BTW: FANTASTIC FOUR 2 blinked (it was supposed to open the same date as TRANSFORMERS in Germany) and will now open August 9th...

Stupid, it was gonna get crushed anyway, the first movie in the series was hardly a hit in Germany.


It would've made no difference if F42 opened in the same weekend as Transformers or not...

Not sure about that. The first F4 was crushed by Madagascar because theyx opened on the same weekend and I'd say that the second film is getting an admirable amount of marketing here considering the semi-failure of the first film in Germany. The trailer has played in front of almost all blockbusters I have seen this year so far. It could approach 250,000 - 300,000 admissions opening weekend if the distributor plays its cards right.

I have a feeling TF will not do well in Europe... [/list]

Well obviously they realise that Transformers hype is just too strong for Fantastic Four, I hope Trans owns Fantastic Four with its 2nd weekend.

Here we go again,

Why? I'm just saying that if it fails in Europe, $400m OS is NOT happening.

Yes, we've been through this thing about Transformers not going to be a major success in Europe

War of the Worlds vs. King Kong vs. The Day After Tomorrow vs. Transformers

International - $357,465,174 vs. $331,278,422 vs. $356,030,973 vs. ---

EUROPE:

The Day After Tomorow did really well in this region, i would put it slightly above War of the Worlds due to consistency.

I don't see Transformers threatening TDAT or WOTWs in this region, but I won't perform as badly as King Kong which only had small glimmers of brilliant grosses (mainly in the LOTRs conquered regions, i.e. Scandinavia).

United Kingdom - $55,555,574 vs. $52,619,933 vs. $46,008,483 vs. ---
Germany - $20,068,423 vs. $20,919,864 vs. $31,281,613 vs. ---
France - $29,962,572 vs. $26,629,505 vs. $19,745,960 vs. ---
Spian - $19,990,388 vs. $15,149,112 vs. $17,295,967 vs. ---
Italy - $17,295,956 vs. $10,920,325 vs. $13,295,715 vs. ---
Russia (CIS) - $9,922,573 vs. $9,901,273 vs. $9,849,595 vs. ---
Netherlands - $5,187,015 vs. $4,796,229 vs. $5,453,112 vs. ---
Belgium - $4,262,098 vs. $4,683,067 vs. $4,901,536 vs. ---
Sweden - $2,784,628 vs. $4,119,017 vs. $4,695,874 vs. ---
Denmark - $2,260,424 vs. $4,013,106 vs. $2,984,075 vs. ---
Norway - $2,368,686 vs. $4,590,812 vs. $3,284,018 vs. ---
Austria - $2,439,506 vs. $2,113,925 vs. $3,850,198 vs. ---
Switzerland - $2,880,922 vs. $2,809,674 vs. $4,441,152 vs. ---
Greece - $2,319,354 vs. $1,945,286 vs. $3,407,788 vs. ---
Poland - $2,664,606 vs. $1,664,250 vs. $3,043,564 vs. ---
Turkey - $3,218,836 vs. $2,258,309 vs. $2,435,007 vs. ---
Finland - $1,120,944 vs. $1,206,257 vs. $2,003,994 vs. ---
Portugal - $2,695,782 vs. $1,878,143 vs. $2,280,251 vs. ---
Ukraine - $1,529,042 vs. $1,610,500 vs. --- vs. ---
Czech Republic - $1,261,605 vs. $1,532,758 vs. $1,279,875 vs. ---
Israel - $1,299,338 vs. $1,346,385 vs. $1,516,383 vs. ---

UAE - $1,049,501 vs. $1,856,959 vs. $1,559,459 vs. ---
South Africa - $1,195,958 vs. $2,261,789 vs. $2,535,305 vs. ---


ASIA PACIFIC:

War of the Worlds takes out Japan, but King Kong is really the most consistent of the bunch in this region. Perhaps this explains why despite being almost $30m behind TDAT in Japan, it's still able to stay close with them in the overall overseas total.

With the strength of Asian grosses lately, can't see why Transformers shouldn't beat all here.

Japan - $53,720,172 vs. $19,533,654 vs. $47,305,108 vs. ---
South Korea - $19,311,883 vs. $24,576,798 vs. $16,099,401 vs. ---
Australia - $16,532,633 vs. $15,970,050 vs. $14,205,204 vs. ---
Taiwan - $7,089,351 vs. $7,350,836 vs. $11,459,527 vs. ---
India - $2,574,078 vs. $6,772,251 vs. $2,231,758 vs. ---
New Zealand - $2,662,311 vs. $6,258,311 vs. $2,119,138 vs. ---
Hong Kong - $3,068,545 vs. $5,079,955 vs. $5,447,486 vs. ---
Thailand - $2,255,489 vs. $2,975,834 vs. $3,009,036 vs. ---
Phillippines - $1,945,761 vs. $3,166,492 vs. $2,478,794 vs. ---
Malaysia - $1,698,818 vs. $3,265,934 vs. $1,991,700 vs. ---
Singapore - $1,911,949 vs. $3,038,821 vs. $1,922,474 vs. ---
Indonesia - $1,226,156 vs. $1,909,701 vs. $1,275,641 vs. ---


AMERICAS:

The Day After Tomorow is the strongest here, if it's not #1 it's normally #2 out of the three. Exchange rates have improved dramatically since 2005, expect Transformers to perform strongly here.

Mexico - $17,166,989 vs. $16,424,831 vs. $19,014,009 vs. ---
Brazil - $8,008,361 vs. $5,987,670 vs. $7,082,082 vs. ---
Argentina - $3,736,535 vs. $1,962,899 vs. $3,515,435 vs. ---
Central America - $1,901,988 vs. $1,889,304 vs. $2,224,892 vs. ---
Venezuala - $1,515,626 vs. $1,414,958 vs. $2,207,603 vs. ---
Columbia - $1,502,955 vs. $1,753,067 vs. $1,659,657 vs. ---
Peru - $1,312,256 vs. $1,368,397 vs. $1,534,816 vs. ---

Great job mate!

I think that TF's Asian and Latin-American win can not balance its European defeat, so it will be under WotW.

Thanks

The Euopean grosses are hardest to predict, it needs to do really well in the major markets of UK, Germany, France, Spain, Russia and Italy.

With the exchange rates as they are, I think that even if all goes pear shape in Europe, it shouldn't be too far off King Kong. Meaning that a $300m international gross is probably the lowest it can do.

The real money is in the sequel, where with favourable reviews for the first.....this can become the new big franchise. Much bigger than Batman, which is severely hampered when it comes to international grosses.

AUSTRALIA - Opening Day

Transformers opens today in Australia, it's currently 7:10pm over here. Currently no sell outs in any of the major cinemas in Melbourne, though it did have a 1 or 2 sellouts elsewhere during the day. This is hardly a concern, because this movie is skewing a much younger audience, and may play out like a family or kids movie, i.e. Harry Potter and Shrek.

But since schools are still in session in Melbourne and Sydney, kids may choose to wait till Friday or weekends to see this, Friday is the last day of the school term, so expect a huge increase. So what i'm saying is Melbourne is not a good representation of how well it's doing in Australia as a whole since the kids are still in school today and tomorrow.

....here's what someone posted on Moviemarshal concerning the weekly takings of last weekend's opener Fantastic Four 2 and the 3rd week of Shrek 3...and how they're weekly grosses were boosted by the school holidays starting in Queensland...

I'm sticking by my $7m prediction BTW

======================

http://forum.moviemarshal.com.au/viewtopic.php?t=885

For the week F4:ROTSS ended up over 4mil, infact so did Shrek3 as well (not much between the two). QLD Sch hols starting saw expected big jump for Shrek.

F4(05) opening was during School Hols in most states 3.8 weekend 5.4 week, ROTSS was expected to be over 3mil for the weekend but not as high as the 1st and then hopefully kicking in once school hols start.
with Transformers this week will probably blow everything out of the water.

I'm sticking to my 320-350m OS prediction for TF.

What's the thing with the "Transformers will suffer a defeat from the WOTWs club"....i hope you get a fistful of energon before the end.

TF will do great. 500m+ is amazing for a franchise starter! I will see it on OD. Just I think it will not do as good as WotW, that's all.

It's going to be close between the two, there's no doubt about it.

Transformers of course will be so much better as a movie than WOTW which was completely shit. A movie which promised a lot of exciting stuff and action turns out to be so boring...

I've got no doubts in my mind, that I will at least enjoy the action and SFX of this movie, the small preview clip which i saw at the DVD store (told u guys earlier) blows the shit out of all WOTW's SFX scenes combined.

Okay fellas, things got better in Melbourne on Opening Day. It's currrently almost 11pm now....and Transformers actually racked up some sellouts in the Village/Roadshow chain of cinemas....always a good sign

Thursday:

Knox (13 sessions) - 7:30pm, 8:30pm
Sunshine (12 sessions) - 4:30pm
Southland (11 sessions) - 8:30pm
Crown Casino (10 sessions) - 7:30pm, 8:30pm
Jam Factory (9 sessions) - no sellouts
Fountain Gate (9 sessions) - 5:30pm, 6:30pm, 8:30pm
Century City (9 sessions) - 4:30pm, 7:30pm
Dandenong (9 sessions) - no sellouts
Airport West (9 sessions) - no sellouts
Karringal (8 sessions) - 6:30pm
Geelong (8 sessons) - no sellouts
Morwell (8 sessions) - no sellouts

Of course this is nowhere near Pirates 3 or Spiderman 3. Though it did have more sellouts than Shrek 3, but that movie had at least 50% more sessions per day in most cinemas.

This is promising, it at least shows that the afternoon and night sessions are getting good capacity. I think an opening day above $1m is likely. Ideally it would need an opening day above AUD$1.5m to be a good bet for $7m+ opening weekend

AUSTRALIA - Opening Day - AUD$2m

This is absolutely fantastic, looks like it will be making it to $7m afterall....perhaps even more...

Yeah its an excellent result, the over 2mil is correct at present, Paul compared with T3 which opening day was 1.8 did 7.3mil, althought expecting a lot more from Transformers.
Its ranking #12(biggest opening Thu, inclu hol openings), #2 opening day for this year behind AWE

QLD is large chunk of F4&S3 result, Monday with other states starting Sch holidays Monday on should have some big results across the board.

Its a long film and also have less theatres & prints than the likes of AWE& SM3, which if the weekend is huge will make it look more impressive and per print average
Thrs/Prints

Transformers 240/370 approx, SM3 270/500 , AWE 286/600,S3 277/466,f4 240/343
A lot more wide releases at present fighting for screen space.

I know for Friday night theres a lot of pre-sales and some sessions already getting close to full.

=================

This is such a promising sign for Transformers, because it will probably have a great multiplier....$8m is extremely possible at this stage.

The opening day is just behind this year's Pirates 3 which opened to $2.2m, and is currently the 2nd highest of the year, beating even Spiderman 3 ($1.8m) which ended up with $9.5m. It also beats WOTW ($1.2m) and Terminator 3 ($1.8m). This is actually the largest non-holiday, non-sequel/franchise opening of all-time

YES!!! Awesome first day number!!!! BRILLIANT!!!!!!!!

I'm excited!

Yes, extremely brillaint and more than we could really hope for. It's not that far off Pirates 3 for god sake and the two are the closest in riunning time.

This one has an outside shot at AUD$10m opening weekend, afterall, Spoderman 3 did make $9.5m off a $1.8m, it'll probably be in the $8.5-$10.5m region i think....depends on how frontloaded it is.

Yeah, it's a good sign for the other markets. Can't wait to see how it did in South Korea and Taiwan, potentially strong markets.

I hope it gets very strong numbers in Japan 'cause a) that would mean a huge OS boost and b) it would steal some thunder from Harry Potthead.

Hey I'm going to see Transformers now, about to leave the house. I totally can't wait for this. Having been waiting for something like this for over 10 years.

Fingers crossed for a good movie. I'll be back with my report and such latter in the day.

Yeah it shouldnt be as frontloaded because its not a sequel, though QLD has holidays so that will help increase todays gross but the two biggest markets and the rest dont so not to big a deal.

Its first two weeks will be amazing seeing school is out and only Knocked Up comes out next week. We'll just have to see what happens when Potter comes out.

You seeing it tonight right? Report back with all the sell outs etc