Spider-Man 2 had an opening day over 40m on a wednes day and still mustered an opening wknd over 85m 8) It made 200m of its entire run in its first 7-8 days And it IMO under performed. Pirates of the Caribbean 2 opens on a friday and si most likely the most anticipated film of 06. I feel that its more anticipated than even X3. The fanbase for the first film is massive and I here that it grew even more on DVD. The first movie was probably the most well received film of 03 and it had a multiplyer over 6.5 after being released. The first movie did not have a drop over 35% for 14 wknds strait one of its smallest drops was the second wknd and it only had one holiday boost throughout its whole run. I call that very good WOM, and a very big fanbase that will chew the second film up opening wknd. 100m is a lock I think we should all question wether or not it can open over 150m.

Heh, BJ's overpredicting case number 103.

oh come on instead of teasing just tell me your opening wknd prediction and tell me why the sequal to the so called most over rated film of 03 will not open huge and not top out huge with Americas new kindness toward sequals to well recieved films.

Shrek/Drek 2 anyone

I feel this will dissapoint many of you.

Opening $68m

Total $260m

:? why do you feel it will disapoint :?:

It wont dissapoint me, but will you seeing many high predictions in this thread.

why would a move that had a 5 day opening haul if 70,625,971m and a domestic Gross of 305,413,918m have a sequal than can only manage a 68m opening wknd :?:

Agreed. It'll fall short of the original's gross.

*rubs hands, waiting for DP07 coming in to argue over that*

No, seriously, I see around $280 million for total.

Maybe because the sequel will disappoint as is often the case with sequels, maybe because the same Jack Sparrow antics won't be that funny anymore the second time around, the reasons are many.

Oh it will open big, just not as big as you happen to believe. I see it doing around $80m (max $90m) on its first weekend. (if it opens on a friday).

Yeah sure, because Shrek 2 did $440m every "one of the most anticipated movie of the year" flick will now break $400m... Shrek 2 was a fluke.

Pirates of the Caribbean 2:

Opening: $105m
Total: $400m

I'm not sure about that, Nazgul. PotC 1 got a LOT of repeat viewings and did gangbusters on DVD, so people obviously didn't get tired of Jack's antics the first time around. I think people will pay to see more of the same type of antics.

I dont know right now, but the first one, I thought it wasn't as good as what I heard of it prior. This second one hasn't even had a trailer released yet, but its seems we are assuming that the second installment will be 'excellent' aswell. Revised prediction : 80/220

The movie will have a mammoth opening. I don't see why it wouldn't top $100 million if they don't move it to a 5-day.

Legs, on the other hand, under a 3 multiplier, unless it exceeds the original by leaps and bounds. And I just don't see that happening. Fluke megahits like POTC are...flukes.

Knowing Disney and how they love to have as many records as possible. it is VERY possible they will release this on a Friday for that reason..

Look at Matrix and Spiderman2...if those had opened on Friday instead of thurs and Weds they would have come extremly close, if not had done better, and set the record

Another smart move by Disney imo....

ill go 110 for now (DEPENDING on the trailer etc )

For opening on a Friday, I still (for some reason ) cant see this topping $85million for 3-days, These $100million 3-day pred's are shocking me. Right now i would say X3 has a better chance of breaking $100million in its 3-day. Thats right, I bet X3 will have a higher 3-day opening

Opening: $112 Mio.
Final: $362 Mio.

Why? Given the way most sequels to WOM hits perform, I think the burden of proof is on anyone who says it will gross less then the original. When the original has great legs, the sequel generally earns more. When there is an exception, it generally had horrible marketing, or there was some other factor (such as Dumb and Dumberer missing the stars from the original).

POTC was not just another film that was a massive hit with audiences, had great legs, and became a hit on DVD. It was the film that accomplished all that better then any other film since. You can only argue that a few might have done so better in recent years (Shrek, The Ring, The Matrix).

Open: 117
Close:356
This movie has so many unexpected fanboys it's incredible.

You see, if Pirates made $200 million, I'd be giving POTC2 a higher total gross than the original had it. But in this case the starting point is $305 million. It's like Spider-Man. The first film had amazing WoM, more competition (SW II) and still great legs and was HUGE on DVD and yet the second didn't outgross it just because the first was too big.

Difference Lecter is the legs that POTC had.

Yes, but it also wasn't coming off a $115 million weekend.

Thats a horible comparison. The first spidey made over 400m the first Pirates made a little over 300m. Pirates 2 will easily top the first 8)

Oh so $300 million is nothing special?

Actually 300m is not as special now as it was a couple of years ago. in the last three year there have been 3 300m movies each year and in 2001 there was 2. 300m is become more easier to obtain.

But it is still a milestone and only few movies manage to reach it.