Transformers (INTL.)




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Autobots, Transform and prepare to rollout! (queue "The Touch" song)

Some call it a dark horse, others are quickly jumping on the bandwagon, Transformers looks like the most exciting thing in movies for a millenia . A lot has to do with the fact that this is a totally new blockbuster, not some rehashed sequel for the third time. It summons the arrival of a known brand name, one that has delighted past and current generations of kids. No other words sums it better than the fact that Transformers is just "cool".

I was personally not really a huge fan of the toys, it was mainly the cartoons and Movie which caught my attention. It totally blowed my mind and continues to do so. I actually bought VHS copies of all the old series from the US (back when they weren't available on DVD or instores).....you bet i'll be buying the new G1 DVD Box Set coming out in June...LOL :tongue:. Yes, the nostalgia is definately there. And this is definately a big plus for box office. Kids who were 5 or so back in the 80s would be in their prime 30-40s now....it's going to bring back a lot of memories for people. Although fans (mainly the oldies) continue to reference the G1 as the greatest, there has been a host of Transformers series and merchandise....expanding on the Transformers universe and mythos. I don't know about you, but I loved the Beast Wars series, I thought it was really intelligent (for what it is) and the fact that the robots was in a prehistoric earth and stuff was really intriguing. Okay enough of how much I loved Transformers, just wanted to get that out...LOL

Okay on to Box Office. The Independence Day frame has generally been a very macho affair...Independence Day, Terminator 3, Men In Black, War of the Worlds, Superman.....it seems like the perfect dumping ground for all things big, loud and with a lot of action. Queue Tranformers. From what we've seen....everything suggests that this will be all that, nothing more, nothing less. Not that there's a big problem with that, its just that these sorta movies don't last very long. But who cares, with 6-Days of holiday-like dailies in the Domestic market....it's totally going to hit and run.....ala Megatron.

On the International front, this one is getting a platform release. Japan, the potential goldmine for obvious reasons, won't be receiving this until August 4th, one of the last markets for Transformers. With Potter 5 opening in the 2nd and 3rd week fo July in virtually all markets, Transformers has no choice but to spool early or delay it's release in the big markets until the last week of July or early August. Either way, I see this playing like a War of the Worlds. It may not have the same appeal for the European countries, but should do better than WOTWs in Asia. And of course, we've seen how strong the international market is lately, so it should have no problems passing $300m.

Transformers - $250m + $350m = $600m

Spiderman 1 - $403,706,375 + $418,002,176 = $821,708,551
Spiderman 2 - $306,169,268 + $510,800,000 = $816,969,268
Independence Day - $373,585,825 + $410,180,516 = $783,766,341
The Matrix: Reloaded - $281,576,461 + $457,023,240 = $738,599,701
War Of The Worlds - $234,280,354 + $357,465,178 = $591,745,532
Men In Black 1 - $250,690,539 + $338,700,000 = $589,390,539
Armageddon - $201,578,182 + $352,131,606 = $553,709,788
King Kong - $218,080,025 + $331,278,422 = $549,358,447
Mission Impossible 2 - $215,409,889 + $330,978,216 = $546,388,105
The Day After Tomorrow - $186,740,799 + $356,030,973 = $542,771,772
X-Men 3 - $234,362,462 + $224,893,546 = $459,256,008
Pearl Harbor - $198,542,554 + $250,678,391 = $449,220,945
300 - $210m + $235m = 445m est.
Men In Black 2 - $190,418,803 + $251,400,000 = $441,818,803
Terminator 3 - $150,371,112 + $283,000,000 = $433,371,112
The Mummy Returns - $202,019,785 + $231,000,000 = $433,019,785
The Matrix: Revolutions - $139,313,948 + $285,674,263 = $424,988,211
X-Men 2 - $214,949,694 + $192,607,919 = $407,557,613
Superman Returns - $200,081,192 + $191,000,000 = $391,081,192
Batman Begins - $205,343,774 + $166,510,009 = $371,853,783

There is actually some buzz here so it might have a chance to beat Spiderman 3 in Poland

I think 350m$ OS is huge for Transformers. There's a small indie film coming out the next week...

What's your prediction, can it beat WOTW's 580,000 adms......or even Armageddon's 906 240 adms. perhaps

I think around 400k admission would be a huge success.

What is the all-time list for Polish admissions?

It will beat Spiderman 3 in Japan, Hong Kong, and Korea. Just in Japan alone, Im expecting a take of at least 100 million

You have spies in these countries do you...... , Spiderman 3 is at $7m+ in Hong Kong already....i don't think it'll go that high.

Yep. SM3 is at 7.155.312$ in HK. AWE will get around 6.2m$. I don't see Transformers beating those.

The following gives us a rough idea of the all-time grossers in Hong Kong. I've got the figures from Showbizdata, though they don't appear to be very consistent....

I wished Moonreflection was still here.......didn't he use to run a site on Top movies in HK, in local dollars as well....

Armageddon - $20.84m
Titanic - $14.83m
Kung Fu Hustle - $7,851,960
Shaolin Soccer - $7.78m
Spiderman 3 - $7,155,419 (Wk. 5)
Infernal Affairs 1 - $6.99m
Harry Potter 4: GOF - $6m
Ab-Normal Beauty - $5.64m
Harry Potter 1: PS - $5.55m
Storm Raiders - $5.35m
The Day After Tomorrow - $5.33m
Love On A Diet - $5.17m
The Mummy Returns - $5.14m
Who Am I? - $5.02m
King Kong - $5.02m
Harry Potter 2: COS - $4.9m
Lord Of The Rings: ROTK - $4.8m
Night At The Museum - $4.76m
Toy Story 2 - $4.58m
Pirates Of The Caribbean 2: Dead Man’s Chest - $4.53m
The Da Vinci Code - $4.51m
Needing You - $4.49m
Mission Impossible 2 - $4.46m
Harry Potter 3: POA - $4.33m
Pirates Of The Caribbean 3: At World’s End - $4,214,803 (Wk. 2)
Finding Nemo - $4.08m
Spiderman 2 - $4.06m
Chronicles Of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch And The Wardrobe - $3.93m
Mission Impossible 3 - $3.88m
Infernal Affairs 3: End Inferno - $3.87m

So, my 6.2m$ prediction for AWE seems good. Right?

considering its going to be doing 100 million in japan and another 50 fro masia alone...it could break 400 million overseas.

From that chart archangel posted, it shows Bay's Armageddon at 20 million and Day After Tommorrow at almost 6 million. Since Transformers is somewhat a apocalyptic movie plus it has giant mech warriors which are extremely popular in asia, I could easily see it passing SM3 there

It'll do $5m+ i'm sure, but $7m is a whole other level....it'll need a record matching or breaking opening (i.e. Spiderman 3 level) to have any shot...

JAPAN - Preview

Jul 21 - Harry Potter 5
Jul 28 - Ratatoullie
Aug 4 - Transformers
Aug 11 - Ocean's 13
Aug 18 - Little Children
Aug 25 - Nancy Dew, Factotum
Aug 31 - Meet The Robinsons

Transformers has its roots in Japan, originally a toy-line by Takara, and spawned countless iterations and generations. Today, the marketplace is swamped by movie-product tie-ins and kids are spoilt for choice. Nonetheless, Transformers continues to be a respected and popular brand name. Now, it's making its big push.....to fight the Spiderman Jack Sparrow at their own game. How will it fair in Japan? Potentially it's biggest market.

Japan has an affinity with big, loud action blockbusters.....and anything with a Spielberg or Cruise name. Although there's no Cruise in Transformers, there is Michael Bay....and if you have a look at his track record below, some of his biggest blockbusters do really well here (like Roland Emmerich). The marketing are playing on this advantage, have a look at the original teaser release in Japan, Steven Spielberg and Bay were heavily promoted.....perhaps even moreso than the product itself. Obviously, they realise they couldn't rely on the Transformers solely.

WOTWs didn't do that well in 2005, it only had 1 week at #1 and was totally overshadowed by Star Wars 3 (which opened in its 2nd week....yeah killer), for the rest of the season. Still, Spielberg's alien flick generated a solid $54m, something which King Kong couldn't even gross half of that year. Speilberg is a god here, Artificial Intelligence was saved by Japan and he currently has 5 movies above $60m, a record of course. Bay is not too shabby himself, his largest hit Armageddon is a $140m grosser, the 9th largest pic of All-Time and just behind Spielfberg's ET $145m.

Japan receives Transformers really late, August 4, about 2 weeks after Harry Potter and 1 week after Ratatoille. I think the reasoning here is that it's better to open latter than to get your movie eaten by something bigger a week latter by a Potter The July-August period seems to be a strong moviegoing month.....some of the biggest blockbusters have opened in this time frame....AOTC ($78m) in 2002, Terminator 3 ($78m) vs. Bayside Shakedown 2 ($165m) in 2003, Spiderman 2 ($65m) vs. Harry Potter 3 ($131m) in 2004, WOTW ($55m) vs. ROTS ($83m) in 2005, and Pirates 2 ($88m) vs. Tales of Earthsea ($66m) last year.

HP5 will probably be affected more by Rats than Transformers which is a surefire opener....however, we can't underestimate Potter here, even if each installment grossed lower than the previous. HP3 which opened in early July faced Spiderman 2 in its 2nd week, it lost the #1 spot but regained it in its 3rd week and ruled for another 5. We can't rule out a $100m+ gross for Potter here.

On the plus side, Transformers has pretty much the rest of August and September to itself, with the exception of Ocean's 13 which opens in its 2nd weekend. The known name doesn't arrive until September F4 in late September. It should maintain the #1 spot in its second weekend; assuming it doesn't drop more than 50% and Ocean's 13 doesn't surprise with a $10m opening (the first two are around the $6m region). Of course we know how good the Japan market can be, it delivered Pirates 2 a 21% drop this weekend off a $16m opening. If it can contain Ocean's 13, a uber blockbuster gross could be instore.

Transformers - $17m // $95m = 5.6x

Armageddon - $7.3m // $140m = 19.17x
Jurassic Park 1 - $8.376m // $125.5m = 14.98x
Star Wars 1: PM - $16.7m // $110m = 6.58x
The Matrix: Reloaded - $18.7m // $104.3m = 5.57x
Lord of the Rings: ROTK - $14.7m // $100m = 6.8x
Independence Day - $9m // $92m = 10.2x
Pirates Of The Caribbean 2: DMC - $16.7m // $88m = 5.27x
Mission Impossible 2 - $13.1m // $82.9m = 6.3x
Star Wars 3: ROTS - $19m // $82.5m = 4.3x
Artificial Intelligence - $11.3m // $79.3m = 7x
The Da Vinci Code - $11.3m // $79m = 6.99x
Star Wars 2: AOTC - $13.7m // $78.5m = 5.73x
Terminator 3 - $12.4m // $78m = 6.29x
Lord of the Rings: TTT - $9.5m // $75m = 7.9x
Spiderman - $9.6m // $73m = 7.6x
Lord of the Rings: FOTR - $6.9m // $68.2m = 9.9x
Spiderman 2 - $10m // $65m = 6.5x
Jurassic Park 2 - $10.8m // $65m = 6.1x
Pearl Harbor - $7.15m // $57.5m = 8x
War of the Worlds - $15.1m // $54m = 3.57x
The Day After Tomorrow - $10m // $50m = 5x
Minority Report - $6.3m // $44m = 7x
Mission Impossible 3 - $12.4m // $43m = 3.5x

Check out these cool videos, it has an Interview from Michael Bay responding to claims that he raped people's childhood....

http://movies.yahoo.com/movie/180871643 ... dardformat

Ooh, some cool Billboard shots...

300-350m OS can happen, but 250m in the US is very high. The best case scenario for TF is 225m+350m, which is 575m WW. BUt my prediction is 205m US and 280-320m OS, that's 485-525m WW.

WOTW did $350 by grossing just $50m or so in Japan, I think with the better conditions and the fact that Transformers will likely beat it in Asia and just slightly behind it in Europe, and beat it in Japan......$350m+ is likely...

The domestic market is harder to predict....the first week is crucial....needs to do at least $120m+ to give $250m a shot.

I expect it to make $80-100 million in Japan and around $550-600 million WW.

Cool, i have a partner

You got a second partner too now.

I also think the movie can do $85-100 million because japan freaking loves robots and there is no way in hell will GIANT FUCKING OR KILLER ROBOTS with tons of explosive action will do below that number.

I robot did $30+ million becasue of robots and the truth is fox's movies don't do well in japan for some reason. They have great legs but don't get huge openings ex: f4 had a $1 million opening weekend and had a multiplier of 9 hence ended with $9+ milllion.

But Transformers will be huge because they were created there and that country is obsessed of robots.

But is the Japanesse market rebounded? I know every major movie the last two years have disapointed in Japan. They have a lot of economic issues over there.

Well this year has been pretty bad so far, only Spiderman and Pirates 3 have done well.

Last year did delvier several movies above $60m, like Tales of Earthsea and Pirates 2.

Pirates looks to be a $90-100m contender, and Spiderman 3 at about $60m.

Harry Potter should do at least $90m.

Arch, remind me again: how much have the Potter films made in Japan?

That sounds right for those three, just wonder how Transformers would do. I wouldn't be surprised to see it around 80 considering the issues in Japan.