Driving Miss Daisy in 1989. Before that you have to go to the 30s.

I don't really get why anyone would list The Departed as the frontrunner at the race. If Babel has nothing for it, what does the Departed have exactly? It's won DGA, WGA, and now the ACE, I know. But I think people are making too big of a deal out of it. Guild don't really mean something unless any given film starts sweeping all of them. With the Departed I think it just means it's strong in a given category. We know it's the frontrunner in best adapted screenplay. The only real competitor is Little Children. A film that is so small. So it pretty much has the category all to itself, unlike original screenplay where you have The Queen, Babel, and Little Miss Sunshine (at least) all in a somewhat close race. We also pretty much klnow it will win director. So I don't really see those wins as a sign of its stenght in the ebst picture race, I see them as strenght in those given categories. It did not win editing. It tied. Why does a tie for departed mean it now strenghtens its position as a BP frontrunner but it means nothing for Babel? I don't really see whats so baffling about Babel. It's not a film for everyone for sure, but those who like it really seem to love it. That's how it's gotten as far as it has. That has been the case with many other films before it.

My point is I think people are letting personal bias get in the way of their predictions. Babel is very much still in the race, and neck and neck with the other two frontrunners. In fact if there is any movie that is clearly ahead based on awards its won, it's Little Miss Sunshine. PGA and SAG ensemble are pretty important. and if you want to bring it up, WGA. In a category where it actually has some competition. The only reason I hesitate to predict a win for it is that it's a comedy and some might see it as too light. It's lack of nom in the director category doesn't even mattter that much, they have never favored directing duos at the academy awards. If it had been directed by one single person I have no doubt it would have made it.

Soo the way I see it:
1. Little Miss Sunshine
2. Babel (I don't know which one to put at #1)
3. The Departed.
4. Letters from Iwo Jima.
5. The Queen.

Either way it's one of the more interesting best picture race of the past few years. I wouldn't even count out The Queen or Letters, even though they seem a bit behind. Letters seems like the perfect candidate for a best picture win. If only it had done better at the box office.

As for director, it would be a huge shocker if Scorsese didn't win.

Personal bias? Using the DGA, WGA and ACE wins to support their argument for a The Departed win at the Oscars is certainly not "personal bias". Let's start with your first sentence, shall we. You say that wins in the Best Director, Best Writing, and Best Editing categories are simply indicative of support in those individual categories, and doesn't show support for a Best Picture win for The Departed. Frankly, you are being ridiculous. It's the global support that leads to wins like that. Winning in other categories lends credence to winning in Best Picture. To completely separate all of the categories and say that they don't affect each other is pretty silly (especially nowadays). If this were the case, as you present it, we would be having a lot more Oscar Best Picture winners winning only Best Picture and NO other awards (and the Guilds would not be as great of a predictor of Oscar success as they continually are). The truth is, that almost never happens. You also fail to do this same analysis with Little Miss Sunshine, which won the PGA, SAG and WGA.

Interestingly enough, The Departed won the most important Guild, with the best track record for predicting the Oscar Best Picture winner: the DGA. This is also the first time Martin Scorsese has won the DGA, and it also the first time a Martin Scorsese film has won the WGA.

I would also suggest that the tied win for The Departed for the ACE is clearly a better sign for The Departed. Thelma Schoonmaker has won the Eddie THREE times already; twice in the previous four years! She won in 2003 for Gangs of New York and 2005 for The Aviator. Many did not expect her to win this year again; she has already been amply rewarded in recent years. The fact that she still managed to win, along with a film with was propped up to win with so-called "interconnecting storylines" with an editor that can be seen as overdue, shows strength for The Departed.

So, Little Miss Sunshine wins the PGA, SAG, WGA; The Departed wins the DGA, WGA and ACE, and Babel wins one guild (none of the "big four") and you criticize US for being biased? Sure sounds like it is you who is being biased. The Guilds have been and always will be the best indicator of Oscar success - nearly all Oscar voters belong to the Guilds. You attempt to minimize The Departed's crucial Guild wins, and then go on about how they don't mean anything? You really don't have much of an argument here.

Just to add something else, Crash won the SAG, the WGA and the ACE (without a tie). It had far more support than Babel has received.

Peace,
Mike.

I don't have the statisc on hand but PGA (little miss sunshine), and Golden Globe (Babel, you could argue for Letters as well) are at least equally good indicators of what will win the best picture oscar. if not better. SAG Ensemble helps as well. Especially this year. When Million Dollar Baby was nominated we pretty much knew it was not an ensemble type of movie. Babel, the Departed and Little Miss Sunshine are all ensemple type movies so no movie was at any real disadvantage. DGA is a great indicator of who will win the best director oscar. the movie that wins the best director oscar almost always wins the best overall picture award. so naturally, dga and best picture will match up pretty well too. usually. i have every reason to believe that this will not be a year in which director and picture match up. BFCA aside i can't really think of any other award organizations that have actually named the departed best picture. all the best picture awards it has received have been from critics. we know that critics and oscar dont really match up often.

I don't know what if its bias or what but I defnitely find it odd that movie forums are the only place where people are almost unanimously picking The Departed as the frontrunner in the best picture race. yes winning smaller awards in categories other than best picture help a film. unless it is in a category that is pretty much locked up with little competition. the queen has won tons of awards for best actress. it will not win picture. eternal sunshine was pretty much a lock for the best screenpaly category the year it was nominated. wons tons of awards for it. it would have not helped it one bit with best picture had it even been nominated. and that is the case with the departed in screenplay in director. they will award scorsese because he's never won. i'm not even saying he isn't deserving but you know he would not stand a chance if he wasn't scorsese. same with screenplay. no real competition other than little children which pretty much flopped at the box office. you take any award show in which they are awarding best adapted screenplay or director, the departed will almost always win. and you take that same organization and have it vote for best picture and more than likely it will not be the departed. so while it is odd to have a film win screenplay and director and not picture it is even more odd to have a film win best picture without a golden globe, PGA, SOMETHING. you can argue that the people voting for golden globes are different from those voting for oscar, but it doesn't change the fact that they also usually award the same film. that hasn't been the case the past two years so a new trend might be starting, but i won't believe that til it happens.

as for my personal opinion on the departed...its one of the year's most entertaining films. and very few directors could have handled the film as well as scorsese did, so he deserves best director recognition. i still wouldn't vote departed best picture because i believe there were quite a handful of better films in 2006 including some other best picture nominees. but it would still be a much more deserving winner than recent best picture oscar recipients. so i would be content with it. that doesn't change the fact that it doesn't stand a chance in hell. a week from now i might come to the realization that i was completely wrong. i'll accept it. but i really don't think so.

No, that is incorrect. The DGA is in fact The best predictor for the Oscar Best Picture winner, bar none. It is better than anything else.

I'm trying to argue with your stance that Babel is somehow in as great of a position or a better position than Little Miss Sunshine and The Departed to win Best Picture at the Oscars, and your stance that anyone who thinks The Departed is above it is "biased". Both of those statements in your original post are ludicrous, as I see it.

The ACE is Babel's only Guild win. And I looked all the way back to when the ACE first began (1962), and if I have not made a counting error, never has a film won Best Picture at the Oscars with only the ACE Guild win (and none other Guild wins).

Only 6 films in the history of the 3 organizations have won the DGA, WGA, and ACE awards together.

1965: The Sound of Music
1970: Patton
1990: Dances with Wolves
1993: Schindler's List
1994: Forrest Gump
2006: The Departed

All of the films ended up winning both Best Picture and Best Director at the Oscars. Certainly a nice look for The Departed.

And as for Little Miss Sunshine - it has won the PGA, SAG and WGA, and you mean to tell me that Babel is EVEN with Little Miss Sunshine for the Best Picture win at the Oscars? I'm sorry if once again, I reiterate that I don't think you have much of an argument at all.

Babel has won only the Golden Globe for Best Picture (the Golden Globes which have proven to be off yet again this year - having named Dreamgirls the Best Comedy/Musical film over Little Miss Sunshine, a film that was actually nominated at the Oscars). And it has literally nothing else in that category, and only one Guild Award. Little Miss Sunshine has 3 major guild wins, The Departed has 3 major guild wins. It looks pretty clear to me.

I probably wouldn't have even responded to your original post if you hadn't tried to minimize Little Miss Sunshine and The Departed's key wins, and then call US biased. Heh. FYI, most Oscar pundits are predicting Little Miss Sunshine or The Departed - are they biased too?

Tom O'Neil - The Departed
Richard Roeper - The Departed
Peter Travers - Little Miss Sunshine
Pete Hammond - Little Miss Sunshine
Jeff Wells - Babel
Ed Douglas - The Departed
Claudia Puig (USA Today) - Little Miss Sunshine
Gene Seymour, Newsday - Little Miss Sunshine
Clay Smith - The Departed
Sam Rubin - The Departed

Peace,
Mike.

Oh I don't know if I'd say its ahead of Little Miss Sunshine as well, just the departed. like i said if it wasn't for the fact that little miss sunshine feels like such an odd (and note that odd does not mean undeserving) choice for best picture, i wouldn't hesitate to pick it as the best picture winner based on how it's performed to date.

If we ignore all precursors, history, box office, and critical support; and look only at anecdotal evidence of actual voters, then Babel is the frontrunner:

http://goldderby.latimes.com/awards_gol ... ising.html

And some of the known support include Gwyneth Paltrow, Jake Gyllenhaal, Guillermo Del Toro, and Alfonso Cuaron.

However, I'm still weary to join Babel bandwagon due to the statistical history, although I'd without doubt rank Babel ahead of LMS.

I definitely see where Rod's coming from, and that's the reason I have LMS in front at this point as well.

The Departed, despite DGA and WGA, has shown big time weakness throughout the race. Let's start with acting nominations: For such a big cast, only 1, and that was for a short scene-stealing performance that was boosted by the fact that Wahlberg is popular and people didn't know he could act that strongly. Leo and Jack missing was a bad indicator, they should've been near shoo-ins, especially the latter.

Then the PGA and SAG. The PGA in a normal circumstance would award a film like this or Dreamgirls as we expected, LMS winning was just a shock out of left field. SAG? Again, with the huge cast, it should've been Departed's. The Golden Globe... It's one thing for a comedy to lose to a musical(they always do), it's another for for a Drama to lose to the film that is currently in 3rd or 4th place.

Rod is correct in that yeah, Departed won DGA and WGA, but what was the competition? Of course Scorsese gets DGA, he's Marty and it's finally his due. WGA... Again, no competition. In the PGA and SAG, where it really was competing with LMS, it got slapped around.

With the losses it's been stacking up so far, I just am not seeing Departed picking up it's game at the last second and taking Picture. Hell, I even watched the film again last night, and while it is excellent and one of the best of the year, I realized that I'm not so sure it's more accessible as a winner than even Sunshine, the blood spilling and the cursing and popcorn over the top-esque ness of isn't typical Academy winning fare. When you look at Godfather and Goodfellas, those films just had more... depth to them, more realism, more inner mob stuff. I think Departed may be closer to Untouchables level than those, in terms of it's more stylistic and fun than tortured and depthy. I'm no fan of Goodfellas but I feel that it and Raging Bull were more Oscar aura films, Departed is more of a damn great popcorn flick.

At this point I have to look at the stats, and I think PGA and SAG were the main competing point between the two films, and LMS beat it in both situations... It's just got that Crash sense of momentum right now. I see it winning. Babel isn't out though, it's the dark horse, but who knows. Hell, Letters is even scaring me just the tiniest bit if the rest split their votes enough, and if enough people have seen it over the last month. The Queen is the only one that I feel is truly dead.

P.S. Mike I'm out of your club, I should've mentioned that a while ago when I made my LMS one.

By the way, 6 days! Can't wait.

Rod said that Babel was even with Little Miss Sunshine. His original post said he didn't know whether to place Babel first or Little Miss Sunshine first, indicating he thought Babel was at #1 with Little Miss Sunshine. So, I can't agree with Rod or you Shack.

@Alex: The anecdotal evidence isn't really anecdotal evidence at all. So you've named a few people who are voting for Babel. So what? There are thousands of Oscar voters, and there will be others voting for Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen, The Departed, and maybe even Iwo Jima. Doesn't really say much. You'll notice that at the end of that very article you posted, O'Neil expects The Departed to win anyways.

Peace,
Mike.

I don't know, to be honest, but i do think its babel vs little miss sunshine. if i look at the way each film has performed with guilds, awards, critics etc i'd go with little miss sunshine. yet a part of me hesitates because of the type of film it is. it's not really the kind of film that would usually be awarded. if it does end up losing i think it will lose to babel, not the departed though so that's why i'm somewhat torn. i can see why babel would be an equally unusual winner because of its lack of guild support, although i still think as when it comes to overall support from academy members you guys are underestimating it. big time. and you guys are brushing off its golden globe win like it's just a golden globe. it's a golden globe. it's a great indicator of what will win best picture at the oscars. and when it doesn't match up it's usually because GG favor a certain genre/type of film. if you were to go back and read my 2004(er...i think 5, actually) predictions you would read that i said the aviator would win the golden globe, but itd be million dollar baby to take the oscar. and of course they would award dreamgirls over little miss sunshine. but you take babel and departed and departed had the advantage over babel. bigger cast, bigger budget, bigger movie all around. it's the perfect candidate for a golden globe. and it still loses to babel.

bottom line...babel vs little miss sunshine.

I still say Babel. Now more than ever, actually. I just feel it, just like I felt Shakespeare and Million Dollar Baby back in 1999 and 2005 respectively.


Director is going to Scorsese, obviously, unless they think 3 Oscars aren't enough (heh) or if Babel somehow misses Score, but either way I think Screenplay is more reachable than Director.

An observation about the BP/BD splits the last couple years:

2005: Crash/Brokeback Mountain
2002: Chicago/The Pianist
2000: Gladiator/Traffic

The director winner falls in the camp of "serious/boring" movie, whereas the picture winner falls in the camp of an entertaining crowdpleaser. (Though I don't think Shakespeare in Love/Saving Private Ryan fits under this scenario.) So if a BP/BD split does occur this year, it won't be following the same pattern from this decade.

I'm still a bit wary of Babel unfortunately... it's not dead.

I still think LMS takes this though.

I don't think The Departed is really "serious/boring" though?

And I really doubt that the Academy will go for yet another split two years in a row. I remember a lot of people predicting a split in 2001, but ABM ended up winning both. And how tacky would it look if Scorsese won Director while The Departed lost Picture?

I remain convinced that LMS can't win Picture, mainly because I doubt that enough Academy members (Who have proven themselves to be pretty snobby in those EW articles) will vote for something so lighthearted. The Departed at least has an amazing pedigree.

I think Babel is almost dead last in the scroe category. I don't see them awarding Gustavo Santoalalla(or however you spell it) two years in a row AND for the most part Babel's score isn't even original.

Yeah, I would agree. I actually see The Queen taking it. Alexandre Desplat will win for The Queen, but also in part for The Painted Veil (in the voters minds). The Queen is also a Best Picture nominee, so I think it can garner the support. And like you said, the Gustavo guy just won last year.

Peace,
Mike.

Yeah I also see The Queen taking Score (with Pan's Labyrinth a major, major spoiler)

I don't even remember the score for Babel at all! The only auditory memories I have of it are the Japan rave scene and Brad Pitt's incessant yelling.

Predix...

Best Picture: The Departed
Best Director: Martin Scorsese, The Departed

My 100% final predictions:

Achievement in directing
1. The Departed, Martin Scorsese
2. Letters from Iwo Jima, Clint Eastwood
3. United 93, Paul Greengrass
4. Babel, Alejandro González Iñárritu
5. The Queen, Stephen Frears

It's Scorsese's to lose, baby.

Best motion picture of the year
1. The Departed (Warner Bros.)
2. Babel (Paramount and Paramount Vantage)
3. Little Miss Sunshine (Fox Searchlight)
4. The Queen (Miramax)
5. Letters from Iwo Jima (Warner Bros.)

While everyone is convinced that ANYTHING can win, I still have a hard time not predicting The Departed. It has an ensrmble that any respected actor would die to be a part of, a screenplay that crackles with fun dialogue and keeps a great pace with such a complicated plot, and has some amazing technical work. Also, if they don't want Scorsese's win to come off as hokey, the movie will need to win too. Not that the other films don't have a decent shot. Babel has the importance factor and many famous fans (Gwyneth Paltrow and Brian Grazer, to name two) that make me think it's the primary upsetter, LMS has the PGA, SAG and WGA that show obvious support for the impossible-to-hate movie, The Queen is also impossible to hate (See that RT score!) and has a great central performance in Mirren, and Iwo Jima has...Clint. And yet despite all of this, I remain confident in The Departed. I hope I don't regret it (But I won't have to ).

My tally:

The Departed - 4
Dreamgirls - 4
Pan's Labyrinth - 3
An Inconvenient Truth - 2
The Queen - 2
Cars - 1
Children of Men - 1
Little Miss Sunshine - 1
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - 1
Venus - 1

There's no way The Queen is above Letters IMO. The former is as dead as Capote was last year and Ray the year before... I maintain the latter hasn't lost anything since it got nominated so there's no way to know where it's at.

I think I'll write up final predictions/analysis later tonight or tomorrow like you did too, I generally like that stuff and I have the time.

I at least have The Queen down for two other wins, one major. I have Letters down for nothing. That's enough for me to rank it above Letters, IMO.

They're both equally limp though.

Picture:

1. The Departed
2. Little Miss Sunshine
3. Babel
4. The Queen
5. Letters from Iwo Jima


Director:

1. Martin Scorsese

Everything else is irrelevent here.

As of now, I'd really like to see Letters from Iwo Jima win.

That would be one hell of a surprise and I wouldn't mind it. My best film of the year was Departed/Letters but I've made peace with Departed not being Academy type fare and some part of me doesn't want it to win so it ould be another infamous snub a la Brokeback...

I'd be quite indifferent to a LMS win snce it's in my top 5 of the year but really don't know why it would win.

Obviously, Babel would aggravate me the most (and that's why I'm predicting it to win so I won't be too disappointed if it does )

So.... I'm rooting for Letters

At this point, I think I'm crossing my fingers for the impossible: LMS. It isn't my favorite out of the noms (I'm a whore for The Departed).... but I think it would be the most *interesting* win. I like pleasant surprises.

Clint Eastwood winning would not be a pleasant surprise.

I'm indifferent about Babel winning. It probably will for that very reason. I like Babel, but I'm not sure I consider it BP material.... I'm numb to it. Eh.