Because the entire fate of the Oscars is hinging on these awards.

These next couple days in waiting are going to be long ones.

The original screenplay award will be the most important one of all. That's decides the winner. Departed is a lock for adapted. If Letters wins it (the Oscar, not the WGA), it's the BP winner. If Babel wins, it's the BP winner. If The Queen wins, it's Departed. If LMS does, it's LMS vs. Departed. If pan wins, it's also Departed.
I think the WGA goes to The Departed and The Queen, and with this and the BAFTA, the Queen supporters will be louder.

Letters has no chance at a BP Oscar win.

when is this announced?

On Sunday (Feb 11th). According to the website, here's the schedule:

COCKTAILS -- 4:00 p.m.
DINNER -- 5:00 p.m.
CEREMONY -- 6:00 p.m.
(LA time)

So, we'll find out the winner sometime after 9pm EST (not sure how long the ceremony runs...).

Peace,
Mike.

Cool, thanks.

Just a matter of hours until the breaking point of Oscar 06... whooo.

Am I nuts, or is the WGA virtually meaningless tonight? Departed and LMS (maybe Queen). Where's the importance.

I suppose because it would cement the two winners tonight as the two frontrunners for the Picture win.

Well this is where Babel or The Queen make a stand if they are in the race. If LMS wins, with all 3 guilds that would put it as the outright frontrunner IMO, and it may be tough to beat. If The Queen wins then it's alive, but Departed is in front, and Babel is toast. If Babel wins like Ebert and Wells seem to be gunning at, then the race is flipped over and it becomes a 3-way thing with The Queen out.

The key is whoever wins original, unless The Departed somehow loses adapted (that would be a bigger news). It basically sets up the main challenger to The Departed in different degrees depending on which wins.

It's not so much the Adapted Screenplay category that we're all interested in. The Original Screenplay category here is very important, because it ultimately points to one film having a leg up to win Original Screenplay at the Oscars (which is an extremely important win in determining which film is most likely to take Best Picture that night as well). Provided, of course, that The Departed doesn't just take Best Picture (then Original Screenplay does not matter). But if The Departed were to lose tonight, then that would also be big news.

The thinking is that Little Miss Sunshine has 2 major Oscar nominations (and 4 total). Little Miss Sunshine pretty much NEEDS the Original Screenplay win to have any chance to win Best Picture. It can't depend on it's 2 other categories (supporting actors), which are not looking likely for a win at all.

If The Queen wins in this category, then it will diminish Little Miss Sunshine and also bolster up The Queen which has 6 nominations (and several majors), indicating it may have the strength to win.

If Babel wins, then suddenly a film which has appeared to lose steam recently will jump to the forefront of people's thoughts, and with the most nominations out of all Best Picture nominees (seven), and a probable Original Screenplay win (if it is to win tonight at the WGA), could also signal a Best Picture win at the Oscars.

This is essentially one of the reasons why The Departed still sticks out as a frontrunner to many; it seems virtually settled to win both Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars (which will be solidified if The Departed can win Adapted Screenplay tonight with the WGA). With those 2 major wins (including a Best Editing nod - which alone is great but may also translate to a win), it has enough support elsewhere to conceivably win Best Picture that night at the Oscars as well. But whomever wins Original Screenplay could be poised to take the top prize as well.

Maybe this is too analytical of me, but I mean, that's we do, us awards/Oscar season fans. We follow the wave and try to see who will win based on a multitude of factors/statistics/wins, etc.

Peace,
Mike.

I think...

If Little Miss Sunshine wins...

Mostly between LMS and Departed, LMS is in front due to PGA and SAG.

If The Queen wins...

Departed is in front, The Queen is right behind it, LMS is kicking around, but still somewhat there.

If Babel wins...

3 way picking between Departed, Babel, LMS. Overall edge might actually go to Babel, because of the 'importance' thing, and the fact that the usual suspects in Ebert, Wells, etc. are now getting behind it. Not to mention that unlike LMS or The Queen, it has both a director's and editing nom, and it leads the nominations.

And that's assuming Departed gets adapted of course as mentioned, which I think it will.

So tonight in my mind, in each situation a different frontrunner could arise. Crazy.

Nothing to really argue with here, but I still have a hard time seeing LMS truly winning over The Departed. They're both the "lightest" - actually, let's say least heavy - films nominated, and The Departed has both the bigger pedigree (Marty, Jack, Leo, etc.) and have the more important nominations (Editing and Directing, which LMS doesn't have), AND it would have more acting noms if the WB didn't screw up the campaign by not categorizing them. Also, films like LMS (Contemporary, light) rarely win. The most comparable BP winner would probably be Rocky, and that had the most noms that year (Tied with Network) and was a gultural phenomenon to boot.

So, even if LMS wins, I think The Departed is in front.

I wish people stopped referring to LMS as the "lightest" nominee when it dealt with issues like suicide, depression, death, failure, handicap, exploitation, weight issues, etc.

I mean, one can argue many of the other nominees to be "light" as well. The Departed can be categorized as the popcorn action flick. The Queen can be summed up as a movie about public relations without any social signficance. Babel basically has a story about a horny girl expressing her sexual frustrations, along with the "important" messages of guns being bad and don't be in a car with a DUI driver.

A little biased, no?

A film can explore those issues and still maintain a light tone.

There's no way the Departed loses picture/director period the end, so yeah, this doesn't make any difference.

All this LMS surge lately has been nice and all and I have enjoyed it but I'm starting to fall into the camp that just doesn't see a win happening (for Best Picture I mean).

It's definitely in the top 3 to win but, like many before have said, it has only 4 nominations. No director nomination, no editing nomination. It's not going to win either of the acting nominations.

Winning the SAG, PGA, and WGA is pretty damn hard to argue against and it could follow in recent Oscar weirdness and win with only 1 or possibly 2 Oscars but for now, I'm going with Oscar history odds and not guild-history odds.

That being said, I really hope LMS wins Original screenplay tonight because that would make me feel a bit better about The Departed winning Best Picture. I don't think it would ensure it (and I'll still probably predict Babel) but it would defintely get my hopes up.

If Babel wins tonight, I think I'd officially concede and say Babel will probably walk away with Best Picture.

Monahan won for The Departed!

Peace,
Mike.

Woot! Another expected win, but assurance is still good.

Oscarwatch has also linked a blog following the events of the night.

http://carpetbagger.blogs.nytimes.com/

Egggcellent, now...

The important stuff.

lms for original

And Arndt wins for Sunshine!

Which means The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine are the big guilds winners.

The Departed: DGA, WGA
Little Miss Sunshine: PGA, SAG, WGA

Peace,
Mike.

Finally, for me, the last nail was put in the coffin for Babel. It won't be able to to win any of the 8 big awards, so Best Picture is virtually out for me (nothing is for sure, but I can say for sure that Babel is NO Crash). It's 4th on my "likelihood of winning" list, not 5th simply because Letters is in there.

Peace,
Mike.

Yes!

I can't lose this Oscar season.

Two way race now for sure.