ROTK won Best Ensemble without an acting nom, so The Departed can still win.

Not really. I still see The Departed winning Best Ensemble.

Peace,
Mike.

Yes, but The Departed does indeed have an acting nom, so it's not even in the same category as ROTK. It's in a better position. We'll see. The Departed is still going to win Best Picture and Best Director at the Oscars, no matter how much you may wish for Dreamgirls to do so.

Peace,
Mike.

Actually, I just looked it up. A film with only 1 or even 0 individual acting nominations at the SAG has won Best Ensemble quite a lot in it's history.

Return of the King - 0 individual acting nominations
Gosford Park - 1
Traffic - 1
The Full Monty - 0
Apollo 13 - 1

Peace,
Mike.

Weren't Hank Azaria and Nathan Lane both up for Supporting for The Birdcage? Or is my memory sketchy?

Sorry guys, I thought I posted in here already. I'm definitely in. Since we all know that Rocky Balboa will not get nomianted for anything, I do hope this wins best picture. If it doesn't, then Blood Diamond is my next choice. But count me in for thinking it will, and should.

Correct.

Peace,
Mike.

UPDATED TALLIES

Best Picture Wins so far (7):
Boston Society of Film Critics
Golden Satellite Awards
Southeastern Film Critics Association
Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Florida Film Critics Circle
Chicago Film Critics Association
St. Louis Film Critics Association
** PGA Nomination

Best Director Wins so far (13):
National Board of Review
Boston Society of Film Critics
Washington Area Film Critics Association
New York Film Critics Circle
Southeastern Film Critics Association
Dallas-Forth Worth Critics Association
Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Phoenix Film Critics Society
Florida Film Critics Circle
Oklahoma Film Critics Circle
Chicago Film Critics Association
St. Louis Film Critics Association
Online Film Critics Society

Other Awards Won so far:

Best Supporting Actor, Leonardo DiCaprio
International Press Academy
**SAG Nomination

Best Supporting Actor, Mark Wahlberg
Boston Film Critics Society
National Society of Film Critics

Best Supporting Actor, Jack Nicholson
Phoenix Film Critics Society
Florida Film Critics Circle
Austin Film Critics Association

Best Screenplay or Adapted Screenplay
Boston Society of Film Critics
Southeastern Film Critics Association
Phoenix Film Critics Society
International Press Academy
Florida Film Critics Circle
Chicago Film Critics Association
Kansas City Film Critics Circle

Best Ensemble Cast
National Board of Review
International Press Academy
** Best Ensemble SAG Nomination

Best Film Editing
Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Phoenix Film Critics Society

Peace,
Mike.

I feel unworthy joining after so long (because I wanted to wait and see Dreamgirls).

But I'm all in on this. I don't see Letters winning and aside from that there is no other movie I see deserving to or actually winning this thing.

The Departed ALL THE WAY!

You can still join. Anybody who realizes now that The Departed will win Best Picture and Best Director may join.

UPDATED TALLIES

Best Picture Wins so far (7):
Boston Society of Film Critics
Golden Satellite Awards
Southeastern Film Critics Association
Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Florida Film Critics Circle
Chicago Film Critics Association
St. Louis Film Critics Association
** PGA Nomination

Best Director Wins so far (15):
National Board of Review
Boston Society of Film Critics
Washington Area Film Critics Association
New York Film Critics Circle
Southeastern Film Critics Association
Dallas-Forth Worth Critics Association
Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Phoenix Film Critics Society
Florida Film Critics Circle
Oklahoma Film Critics Circle
Chicago Film Critics Association
St. Louis Film Critics Association
Online Film Critics Society
Iowa Film Critics
Central Ohio Film Critics Association
** DGA Nomination


Other Awards Won so far:

Best Actor, Leonardo DiCaprio
Central Ohio Film Critics Association

Best Supporting Actor, Leonardo DiCaprio
International Press Academy
**SAG Nomination

Best Supporting Actor, Mark Wahlberg
Boston Film Critics Society
National Society of Film Critics

Best Supporting Actor, Jack Nicholson
Phoenix Film Critics Society
Florida Film Critics Circle
Austin Film Critics Association

Best Screenplay or Adapted Screenplay
Boston Society of Film Critics
Southeastern Film Critics Association
Phoenix Film Critics Society
International Press Academy
Florida Film Critics Circle
Chicago Film Critics Association
Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Central Ohio Film Critics Association
** WGA Nomination

Best Ensemble Cast
National Board of Review
International Press Academy
Central Ohio Film Critics Association
** Best Ensemble SAG Nomination

Best Film Editing
Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Phoenix Film Critics Society
** ACE Nomination

Peace,
Mike.

Cake? Hats? T-shirts? Members?

Hmm... I may have to reconsider my stance on Dreamgirls and its Oscar potential...

Well, The Departed just won Best Picture and Best Director at the BFCA Awards, solidifying it's frontrunner status to win both of those awards come Oscar time, just as I, and the group, predicted.

Congrats Marty!

Peace,
Mike.

I am watching the Oscars this year, for five reasons, and five only.

1) To see Marty win Best Director and get a 3 and half hour standing ovation.
2) To see The Departed win Best Picture.
3) To see Babel hopefully not win anything.
4) To see LMS win Best screenplay.
5) Because there is nothing else to do.

6) To see Dreamgirls take home the pity Oscars...

Best song
Best supporting actress
perhaps best supporting actor, although seeing Eddie win best supp actor would be priceless, another excellent reason to watch.

UPDATE:

Well, The Departed continued the dominance in the Best Director category for Martin Scorsese, but was hit down by a loss in Best Picture (Drama) at the Globes. The winner was Babel instead.

Ultimately, I think Best Director is sewn up. Scorsese won the most critics group Best Director awards, as well as Best Director at the BFCA and the Globes, and will go on to win the DGA, as I see it. Thus, I think this is finally Marty's year in terms of snatching the Best Director Oscar. There's no Eastwood to steal it away from him this time, and no other viable strong candidate to create a snub.

Best Picture on the other hand, is not certain, and this is the one thing left that the group hinges on. The last straw is coming up quicky: the PGA which announces it's winner on January 20th. The Departed managed Best Picture wins at several critics groups, the BFCA, but just lost the Globes. If The Departed can manage a win at the PGA, then I think it's back in and a win at the Oscars is possible. Otherwise, if Dreamgirls or Babel manages the PGA win, then I will to concede that the likelihood of The Departed winning Best Picture at the Oscars is small. Our club will have settle with just a Best Director win for Mr. Scorsese.

I'll be back again once the PGA is announced, to see where The Departed ultimately stands.

Peace,
Mike.

For people with balls, I offer the Babel club.

I still think Departed is going to take it. The past 2 BP winners haven't won at the golden globes, so nothing to worry about .

Fuck Babel

We cannot forget that The Aviator won BP in both the GG and PGA just two years ago, so they are/will be reluctant to award Scorsese again for BP so soon. I fully expect The Departed to lose the PGA as well (which has not matched up with Oscar win in the last two years) and still rebound with the DGA and Best Picture win.

True. I guess this season could be unpredictable, which is pretty cool.

I'm still holding on to the fact that no film since 1970 has won Best Picture at the Oscars without at least a Screenplay nomination except for Titanic, which was a cultural phenomenon that made gazillions at the box office and was impossible to ignore. I don't think Dreamgirls will be getting a Screenplay nomination at the Oscars (it didn't with the WGA). So, we'll have to wait and see about that one.

It helps that it even looks likely that The Departed will be WINNING Best Adapted Screenplay, with The Queen, Little Miss Sunshine and Babel (the biggest competition) all being in the Original Screenplay category. With what I see as a practically guaranteed win for Martin Scorsese for Best Director, and a possible win in Best Adapted Screenplay, one would think it surely would have the leg up to win Best Picture if it won both of those. But you never know.

Peace,
Mike.

It'll be Departed, and it won't even be close.

You bring up a good point, but I'm not going to let facts stand in my way here. In the words of the Roman poet Dick Vitale, it's going to be a BLOWOUT, BABY.

I'm on a fairly good prognosticating high right now so I'll just say here what I said to Tom O'Neil --- the academy has been holding its breath for a LONG time for Scorsese to make his great film. And I think they are going to exhale this year and reward him with BD and BP.

The votes of 95 foreign, and severely misguided, journalists nonwithstanding.

I still see The Departed winning BP, BD, and BAS.

With the nominations now announced, I think The Departed is back on track to a possible Best Picture win. All the other nominated films, except Babel, have a strike against them.

Little Miss Sunshine missed Best Director and Best Film Editing, and has just 4 nominations total. It's generally been a nicely nominated film, but not much at winning. The PGA is the only thing keeping it afloat.

Letters from Iwo Jima has made only $2.5 million at the box office; the lowest grossing nominee rarely wins, and since 1980 in fact, the lowest grossing Best Picture nominee has NEVER won. It also has just 4 nominations, also missed Best Film Editing, and has no acting support. It also received not a single mention with the Guilds.

The Queen missed Best Film Editing (like Little Miss Sunshine and Iwo Jima before it), which is generally an important category. The Best Picture winner usually has been nominated for Best Film Editing as well. The Queen also doesn't strike me as a Best Picture winner, and has no major precursors won, but that is not the be all and the end all as shown last year. The Queen strikes me as one of the stronger candidates now, I will admit.

(Dreamgirls is obviously completely out of the race with no Best Picture or Best Director nominations.)

Babel is the only other film to not have missed an important category. It also seems to have the upper hand, with 7 nominations vs. The Departed's 5. But when it all comes down to it, there are only 4 awards I think each can win.

Since Babel would have to overcome The Queen and Little Miss Sunshine to win Original Screenplay, and The Departed has Best Director all locked up (as far as I'm concerned), I think The Departed can and will win Best Picture and Best Director like I and the club members have predicted since back in mid-December!

Go Marty!

Peace,
Mike.

I'm impressed, Warner Brothers is finally doing something right! They are re-releasing The Departed in theatres so that all Academy members can see it again. And such perfect timing; it will re-open on January 26th, and final Oscar ballots are mailed out to members on January 31st.



Peace,
Mike.