I'm so happy. After having a total snub from the guilds, a lot of people thought that Letters is out. I was sure that it will get the director nod, and I was sure that it will eat LMS, but after the latest buzz for LMS I changed my mind. I'm so glad that Dreamgirls is out. And Greengrass for BD - great decisions from the Academy.

Now we have to discuss about Letters. It's a masterpice, and as I said before, the Academy just have to watch the movie and then they won't ignore it. It seems to me that they've watched it.

I know that there's so much is against Letters, no actor nom, no editing nom, but this year has made already some surprises. This is a wide-open race. Babel and Departed seems to be a favorite, but I see Departed getting "only" screenplay and director award. Lot of Academy member might think that okay, Marty gets it, but something else should get the BP award. LMS is in, although the Academy is in love with dramas. The Queen will get actress award, maybe screenplay and score, but I don't think I's srtong enough for the BP race. So for me it's Babel vs. Letters, and it's obvious that Letters got better reviews, not only good, but excellent reviews. And the Clint-power is amazing! So why not? Letters From Iwo Jima Winning BP!

Who's in?

And please do not hate the movie, because Clint won already. Watch the film and judge. And if you think that Babel or something else is better, then we can discuss, but ignore those 'I'm getting bored of Clint' comments.

Well, you have Kris Tapley:

http://www.incontention.com/2007/01/dre ... ds_wi.html

But with only four nominations and the only tech nom being Sound Editing, no way in hell.

Count me in

There's too much running against it:

- Zero guild support
- No acting support
- Missed Best Film Editing nomination; only 4 nominations total
- It's the lowest grossing Best Picture nominee (only $2.5 million at the box office), and since 1980, no film has ever won Best Picture as the lowest grossing nominee

Peace,
Mike.

0 guild support...not even DGA. I don't mean to troll here, but I don't think it has a shot at all.

Plus it's in a foreign language. I think a BP nomination will be seen as "good enough" here as far as recognition for Clint. I doubt many will vote for it.

I know. There are all reasons against it. But who thought that Dreamgirls, Volver, Jack, Leo for Departed will be out? This is a surprise year, this is a wide-open race.

Few stats:
First time since 27-28 (first year of Oscars) that no Best Picture nomination had a Best Actor nom
First time since 52 that no Best Picture nom had more than 7 nominations
Lowest nomination total (26) for Best Picture nominees since it went to 5 nominations
First time since 1987 that more than two films had Best Actor and no other nominations
First time since 1930, when there were 8 Best Actor nominations that 4 films had Best Actor and no other nominations

It might happen that Letters wins BP with only 1 other win. And snubbing Marty again for Clint - I can't imagine that, but who knows? The Academy should honour this war masterpiece and I think Marty won't be disappointed if he gets BD and the BP award goes to Clint. Then everybody is happy, but the Babel cast. Babel surprised me everywhere, I've never though after the reviews that this movie will come along this way. Maybe the AMPAS will stop it's reign, snubbing Brad Pitt is the first step.

I'm tempted to join seeing as it's the best movie of the year on my top 10 but I don't see it happening. I'm more than elated to see it nominated though.

If Clint hadn't won recently, I join in a second...

Believe me, at the moment the editing stigma is the only one thing that worries me. LMS is not an Oscar-like movie, if Sideways couldn't win, no way that it will. The Queen - I don't think so. The Departed - they might think that for a remake, a director+screenplay duo will be enough. And there's babel. The AMPAS just have to sit down and watch Babel and Letters. If 2 of every 10 members would say that Babel is the better film, I'm surprised.

Or The Queen.

Best Original Screenplay looks like the most important category of the Oscar night.

While I think Matry is alock for BD, I think this could surprise in the picture category. Look at the producing team...Clint, Steven, and Haggis. That is a lot of nepotistic opportunity there.

Yeah, it is. If it goes for LMS, then with an acting award+BP, that's 3, it's possible. For The Queen it's even better. It favorite for winning best actress, screenplay and maybe score. With a BP that's 4. Letters should win sound and screenplay to have 3 with BP. That's hard to achieve. 2 awards won't be enough for a BP film. But this year is very interesting, anything can happen.

Paul Haggis. I'm looking forward to his future works, because the movie in which we works gets lot of Oscar-love. M$B, Crash and now Flags/Letters. Flags and Letters have 6 nominations together. Can't imagine that the AMPAS will left Clint's masterpiece to leave empty handed. One thing is sure: we have an interesting and exciting month ahead of us with all the 5 nominees are in the race for Best Picture.

This is going to be a very VERY interesting night. Anything can win at this point. Woot!


Most exciting oscars I've ever seen, that's for sure.

An interesting notice: It's The Departed, a remake of a foreign language film, vs. Letters from Iwo Jima, itself a foreign language film vs. Babel, lot of foreign language cast, they only getting acting noms vs. The British Queen. The one reason why LMS could win?

Kinda hard to keep him a secret when I linked him in this very thread.

Larry wrote it in Oscarwatch blog, I hope he don't mind his comment post here, it's funny!

"I just talked to Martin Scorsese, and he said if Clint wins Best Picture and Best Director against him again this year (like with M$B), Marty's next project will be a trilogy about the Holocaust, with all three films being released in the same year (2008):

The first will be in English.
The second will be in Yiddish.
The third will be in German, told from the perspective of the Nazis.

If you can't beat 'em, join 'em.

Posted by: Larry"

Great, isn't it?

I'm anxious to see Flags and Letters, to see if the hate is deserving.

But, I don't think it will take Best Pic. I think the lack of nods elsewhere for certain films (1 acting for Departed; no directing for LMS, no real win-buzz for Queen or Letters) will set up Babel's win. Sadly.

I guess things could happen (might step up the campaigning, box office could pick up), but I think for now it's solidly in 4th or 5th place. Just ahead of The Queen if in 4th.

Don't underestimate The Queen. Which film will the older folks (especially the older ladies) in the academy most likely vote? They could be turned off by the violent nature of The Departed, don't have the energy to watch the subtitled films, and LMS probably doesn't appeal to them as much as Sideways. And there is the British contingency. Also the two "downers", Babel and Letters, could split one voting demographic, and there could some overlap between them and The Departed, so anything is possible.

bleh. i've decided not to dismiss anything that comes from Eastwood.

Haven't seen Letters so will not remark on the film but man i'm so glad that Flags has been a total shut out from everything.

Daniel Kenealy predicts Letters for BP and BD.

http://www.oscarwatch.com/2007/01/acade ... .html#more

He's very right in one thing, Letters nod makes a great Oscar-race.

"I was sitting musing on Monday evening that "Letters From Iwo Jima" would bring a real X Factor to Oscar night and that the industry would embrace it because of that X Factor. It combines Steven Spielberg and Clint Eastwood. It is a genre that voters love but it has a twist. It is a subtle, beautiful piece of moviemaking from a undisputed legend. I wrote a mail to Sasha Stone (the real Queen of the Oscar season in my humble opinion) saying that if I had guts I would predict "Letters From Iwo Jima" for Picture, Director and Original Screenplay nominations. But that could not matter less now. What I also wrote in that last minute mail to Sasha was that Clint and his moving, challenging war drama would bring an X Factor to Oscar night. Lord knows, that's the truth." Yeah, go Clint!

Like I said earlier, Iwo Jima will not win Best Picture because it didn't get nominated for editing. Same goes for Sunshine and Queen.

It's a good reason, but we have reasons against every movie. In a year like this - these are not as sure as before. Last year Crash hasn't got a GG nom, but managed to win. Letters will not win a single thing until the Oscar night, so if it could enter to the top 5 without any guild support, why not win? If we see only racional reasons, it's a Babel-Departed battle, but this year's race is special, every usual base might fall, that's why we might see a foreign language movie winning the BP award. But your point is against Letters is valid, that's the nice thing about this year.