I think all of the PGA nominees will be nominated for SAG ensemble. A surprise SAG ensemble snub for any of those five films will rule it out of Oscar BP contention, imo.

The difference is that those films had elite directors that can get the film votes on the strength of the director's name (or father's name). Not the case for these five PGA nominees, with the only exception of The Departed.

If a suprise snubbing is the case, I'd expect Letters or another name-directed film to take that snubbed film's place for the Oscar nomination.

My ASC picks would be:

Apocalypto
Children of Men
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Pan's Labyrinth

alt. Letters from Iwo Jima; or The Good German (ugh...)

I think ACE has separate categories for drama and comedy/musical so:

ACE Drama:
Babel
Children of Men
The Departed
Letters from Iwo Jima
The Queen

ACE Comedy/Musical:
Borat
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
Marie Antoinette

ASC:
Babel
Children of Men
The Departed
Letters From Iwo Jima
Pan's Labyrinth

On the eligibility front, is there anyone who potentially gets left off in any guild due to not being one of its members? Like The Queen's screenplay?

I'm very impressed with the LMS support thus far. I don't expect a DGA nom (is it even elligible?) but this 4 nominations so far (PGA, SAG, Supp. Actor, Supp. Actress) should be enough to keep it in the top 5. However, the movie I thought it would battle it out for that spot, Babel, is showing even stronger than expected... so now I'm confused. Will Clint not have a BP nominee this year?

I think the last two spots are among Letters, Babel, and LMS.

But man, og mannn, am I hoping for a Dreamgirls snub. PLEASE!!!!!!!!

Babel
The Departed
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss sunshine
The Queen

That would be a pretty odd but awesome Best Picture short list.

Were you also disappointed by Dreamgirls?

Dkmuto is officially the andaroo of 2007!

I'll take that as the best compliment EVER!

Actually it means you've become a lovable, yet insufferable pain in the ass!

I'll take it, though.

DGA predix. Ready? Go.

del Toro
Eastwood
Greengrass
Inarritu
Scorsese

My own sort of No Guts, No Glory picks, as OW would deem them, and I actually do agree that there may be one unexpected player in the field this year -- and I'm going with del Toro, who's received insane amounts of acclaim within the past couple weeks. (The safe pick here would be Frears, but what fun is that?)

Greengrass in place of Condon may just be wishful thinking (probably is), but I think it could happen.

Scorsese, Eastwood, Inarritu all seem safe.

My rational picks are Scorsese, Eastwood, Frears, Condon, and Innaritu. My daring picks would be predicting Eastwood splits among his two films and the three Spanish directors split among themselves, thus leaving Greengrass and Cuaron to take their spots.

Interesting picks. But:

'

When has the DGA ever been fun? Blandness, baby!

Frears
Condon
Scorcese
Inarritu
Eastwood

ALT: Greengrass

I really think the pool is from those six.

I say:

Martin Scorsese
Bill Condon
Stephen Frears
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
Paul Greengrass

Yes, I'm predicting an Eastwood snub. I don't really care if I'm wrong.

1. Martin Scorsese
2. Clint Eastwood
3. Stephen Frears
4. Alejandro González Iñárritu
5. Bill Condon

Alt. Paul Greengrass
Alt-2. Alfonso Cuaron

Peace,
Mike.

The ho-hum five for my real predicts.

Daring, unrealistic predicts:

Robert Altman, A Prairie Home Companion
Alfonso Cuaron, Children of Men
Clint Eastwood, Flags of Our Fathers
Clint Eastwood, Letters From Iwo Jima
Martin Scorcese, The Departed

I remember last year before the DGA's when everyone (myself included) was letting their imaginations run wild. Allen! Cronenberg! Meirelles! Howard! Jackson! Nah.

A nice, straight, slowball right right down the middle. That's how they like to do it. That's why they're such an accurate Best Picture bellwether.

CDG will also announce tomorrow.

Predictions:

WGA

Original Screenplay
Babel
Borat
Little Miss Sunshine
A Prairie Home Companion
The Queen

Adapted Screenplay
The Departed
Devil Wears Prada
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal
Thank You for Smoking

ASC
Babel
Children of Men
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Notes on a Scandal (wild pick; Chris Menges is a 3-time ASC nominee)

CDG

Contemporary
Casino Royale
The Devil Wears Prada
Miami Vice
The Painted Veil
The Queen

Period
Dreamgirls
The Illusionist
Marie Antoinette
Miss Potter
The Prestige

Fantasy
The Fountain
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Superman Returns
X-Men: The Last Stand
V for Vendetta

For costume, I have no idea what are considered for which category, so just random guesses.

I have a feeling Bobby'll pop up in the WGA's Original category.