Best Director is simply LOCKED for this now. Best Picture is likely.

However, I don't see why anyone would now predict Whitaker NOT to win given that he is pretty much sweeping left and right right now. O'Toole's chance is shrinking each day and DiCaprio simply won't win against Whitaker.

I still think the Academy will give it to O'Toole being that this is probably the last chance they'll get.

Yes...but only provided he is actually nominated.

I could possibly see DiCaprio/Gosling/Whitaker/Cohen/Smith nominated...

This club is closed, and the final members list is displayed below. All of the following people believe that The Departed will win Best Picture and Best Director come Oscar night, and have bravely chosen to predict this out in the open this early. They will all be amply rewarded for this. The rest of you who may come to change your mind in the future and decide that The Departed will win both Best Picture and Best Director after all, may join us in spirit. But no further members will be officially admitted into this club, since it was a club to see who could predict this early the Best Picture and Director wins for The Departed at the Oscars.

Thanks to all who have joined and who didn't choose to join but added to the discussion in this thread! We'll see what happens Oscar night! The Guilds are coming soon, and will further decide the fate of The Departed.

Final Members List:

1. MikeQ.
2. MovieDude
3. Marty
4. Alex Young
5. Dr. Lecter
6. Shack
7. Riggs27
8. RonBurgundy
9. Dkmuto
10. Zingaling
11. MovieGeek
12. ChipMunky
13. Webslinger
14. Cotton
15. Eagle
16. Chris

Updated Tallies

With the Oklahoma Film Critics and the Chicago Film Critics awarding The Departed, it's racked up another Best Picture win and 2 more Best Director wins among others. The updated tallies are below.

Best Picture Wins so far:
Boston Society of Film Critics
Golden Satellite Awards
Southeastern Film Critics Association
Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Florida Film Critics Circle
Chicago Film Critics Association

Best Director Wins so far:
National Board of Review
Boston Society of Film Critics
Washington Area Film Critics Association
New York Film Critics Circle
Southeastern Film Critics Association
Dallas-Forth Worth Critics Association
Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Phoenix Film Critics Society
Florida Film Critics Circle
Oklahoma Film Critics Circle
Chicago Film Critics Association

Other Awards Won so far:

Best Actor, Leonardo DiCaprio
International Press Academy

Best Supporting Actor, Mark Wahlberg
Boston Film Critics Society

Best Supporting Actor, Jack Nicholson
Phoenix Film Critics Society
Florida Film Critics Circle

Best Screenplay or Adapted Screenplay
Boston Society of Film Critics
Southeastern Film Critics Association
Phoenix Film Critics Society
International Press Academy
Florida Film Critics Circle
Chicago Film Critics Association

Best Ensemble Cast
National Board of Review
International Press Academy

Best Film Editing
Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Phoenix Film Critics Society

Peace,
Mike.

Vote splitting could have had a lot to do with it too...they had 4 actors running in the supporting race at the SAG, with none in supporting. Had they put Leo in lead, I'm willing to bet either Nicholson or Wahlberg would've gotten in.

You're looking too much into it. The only award that has any "predictive" value is the Ensemble award. That's the one you need the grab. And you know that DiCaprio in supporting clearly messed things up for Nicholson and Wahlberg. In any event, we'll see come Oscar time.

Peace,
Mike.

ROTK won Best Ensemble without an acting nom, so The Departed can still win.

Not really. I still see The Departed winning Best Ensemble.

Peace,
Mike.

Yes, but The Departed does indeed have an acting nom, so it's not even in the same category as ROTK. It's in a better position. We'll see. The Departed is still going to win Best Picture and Best Director at the Oscars, no matter how much you may wish for Dreamgirls to do so.

Peace,
Mike.

Actually, I just looked it up. A film with only 1 or even 0 individual acting nominations at the SAG has won Best Ensemble quite a lot in it's history.

Return of the King - 0 individual acting nominations
Gosford Park - 1
Traffic - 1
The Full Monty - 0
Apollo 13 - 1

Peace,
Mike.

Weren't Hank Azaria and Nathan Lane both up for Supporting for The Birdcage? Or is my memory sketchy?

Sorry guys, I thought I posted in here already. I'm definitely in. Since we all know that Rocky Balboa will not get nomianted for anything, I do hope this wins best picture. If it doesn't, then Blood Diamond is my next choice. But count me in for thinking it will, and should.

Correct.

Peace,
Mike.

UPDATED TALLIES

Best Picture Wins so far (7):
Boston Society of Film Critics
Golden Satellite Awards
Southeastern Film Critics Association
Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Florida Film Critics Circle
Chicago Film Critics Association
St. Louis Film Critics Association
** PGA Nomination

Best Director Wins so far (13):
National Board of Review
Boston Society of Film Critics
Washington Area Film Critics Association
New York Film Critics Circle
Southeastern Film Critics Association
Dallas-Forth Worth Critics Association
Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Phoenix Film Critics Society
Florida Film Critics Circle
Oklahoma Film Critics Circle
Chicago Film Critics Association
St. Louis Film Critics Association
Online Film Critics Society

Other Awards Won so far:

Best Supporting Actor, Leonardo DiCaprio
International Press Academy
**SAG Nomination

Best Supporting Actor, Mark Wahlberg
Boston Film Critics Society
National Society of Film Critics

Best Supporting Actor, Jack Nicholson
Phoenix Film Critics Society
Florida Film Critics Circle
Austin Film Critics Association

Best Screenplay or Adapted Screenplay
Boston Society of Film Critics
Southeastern Film Critics Association
Phoenix Film Critics Society
International Press Academy
Florida Film Critics Circle
Chicago Film Critics Association
Kansas City Film Critics Circle

Best Ensemble Cast
National Board of Review
International Press Academy
** Best Ensemble SAG Nomination

Best Film Editing
Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Phoenix Film Critics Society

Peace,
Mike.

I feel unworthy joining after so long (because I wanted to wait and see Dreamgirls).

But I'm all in on this. I don't see Letters winning and aside from that there is no other movie I see deserving to or actually winning this thing.

The Departed ALL THE WAY!

You can still join. Anybody who realizes now that The Departed will win Best Picture and Best Director may join.

UPDATED TALLIES

Best Picture Wins so far (7):
Boston Society of Film Critics
Golden Satellite Awards
Southeastern Film Critics Association
Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Florida Film Critics Circle
Chicago Film Critics Association
St. Louis Film Critics Association
** PGA Nomination

Best Director Wins so far (15):
National Board of Review
Boston Society of Film Critics
Washington Area Film Critics Association
New York Film Critics Circle
Southeastern Film Critics Association
Dallas-Forth Worth Critics Association
Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Phoenix Film Critics Society
Florida Film Critics Circle
Oklahoma Film Critics Circle
Chicago Film Critics Association
St. Louis Film Critics Association
Online Film Critics Society
Iowa Film Critics
Central Ohio Film Critics Association
** DGA Nomination


Other Awards Won so far:

Best Actor, Leonardo DiCaprio
Central Ohio Film Critics Association

Best Supporting Actor, Leonardo DiCaprio
International Press Academy
**SAG Nomination

Best Supporting Actor, Mark Wahlberg
Boston Film Critics Society
National Society of Film Critics

Best Supporting Actor, Jack Nicholson
Phoenix Film Critics Society
Florida Film Critics Circle
Austin Film Critics Association

Best Screenplay or Adapted Screenplay
Boston Society of Film Critics
Southeastern Film Critics Association
Phoenix Film Critics Society
International Press Academy
Florida Film Critics Circle
Chicago Film Critics Association
Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Central Ohio Film Critics Association
** WGA Nomination

Best Ensemble Cast
National Board of Review
International Press Academy
Central Ohio Film Critics Association
** Best Ensemble SAG Nomination

Best Film Editing
Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Phoenix Film Critics Society
** ACE Nomination

Peace,
Mike.

Cake? Hats? T-shirts? Members?

Hmm... I may have to reconsider my stance on Dreamgirls and its Oscar potential...

Well, The Departed just won Best Picture and Best Director at the BFCA Awards, solidifying it's frontrunner status to win both of those awards come Oscar time, just as I, and the group, predicted.

Congrats Marty!

Peace,
Mike.

I am watching the Oscars this year, for five reasons, and five only.

1) To see Marty win Best Director and get a 3 and half hour standing ovation.
2) To see The Departed win Best Picture.
3) To see Babel hopefully not win anything.
4) To see LMS win Best screenplay.
5) Because there is nothing else to do.

6) To see Dreamgirls take home the pity Oscars...

Best song
Best supporting actress
perhaps best supporting actor, although seeing Eddie win best supp actor would be priceless, another excellent reason to watch.

UPDATE:

Well, The Departed continued the dominance in the Best Director category for Martin Scorsese, but was hit down by a loss in Best Picture (Drama) at the Globes. The winner was Babel instead.

Ultimately, I think Best Director is sewn up. Scorsese won the most critics group Best Director awards, as well as Best Director at the BFCA and the Globes, and will go on to win the DGA, as I see it. Thus, I think this is finally Marty's year in terms of snatching the Best Director Oscar. There's no Eastwood to steal it away from him this time, and no other viable strong candidate to create a snub.

Best Picture on the other hand, is not certain, and this is the one thing left that the group hinges on. The last straw is coming up quicky: the PGA which announces it's winner on January 20th. The Departed managed Best Picture wins at several critics groups, the BFCA, but just lost the Globes. If The Departed can manage a win at the PGA, then I think it's back in and a win at the Oscars is possible. Otherwise, if Dreamgirls or Babel manages the PGA win, then I will to concede that the likelihood of The Departed winning Best Picture at the Oscars is small. Our club will have settle with just a Best Director win for Mr. Scorsese.

I'll be back again once the PGA is announced, to see where The Departed ultimately stands.

Peace,
Mike.

For people with balls, I offer the Babel club.

I still think Departed is going to take it. The past 2 BP winners haven't won at the golden globes, so nothing to worry about .

Fuck Babel

We cannot forget that The Aviator won BP in both the GG and PGA just two years ago, so they are/will be reluctant to award Scorsese again for BP so soon. I fully expect The Departed to lose the PGA as well (which has not matched up with Oscar win in the last two years) and still rebound with the DGA and Best Picture win.