Well, there are several categores at the Oscars this year where the winner seems to be (almost) locked up. But as we know, usually there is one good upset each Oscar night or two...which one do you think might rather happen this year?

IMO, the more likely to happen are Whitaker losing Best Actor (to O'Toole for instance) and neither Pan's Labyrinth nor Volver winning Best Foreign (The Lives of Others instead).

Definitely Forest Whitaker not winning Best Actor. He's the frontrunner, but the film itself has no buzz and the competition is strong (Peter O'Toole, Leonardo DiCaprio, Sacha Baron Cohen). Chances are he will win, but him losing wouldn't be anywhere near as surprising as Helen Mirren or Marty Scorsese losing.

I vote Forest Whitaker too. It wouldn't be surprising to me. The rest would be pretty shocking.

I'll actually be surprised if Whitaker wins. The reviews on Venus has been better than I expected. I thought it would be all focusing on O'Toole, but now with a score of 83 at MC, a screenplay looks possibile. Also a lot of critics are giving genuine praises to O'Toole, not just out of a pity sentiment. He is going to win it.

I'd agree that Whitaker is not going to win Best Actor. To me, though, that's not a huge upset...for that, Jennifer Hudson losing is most likely to happen.

Forest Whitaker wasn't all that good anyway. I'd not mind him losing.

I think I'd be more inclined to answer this question after the nominations are actually announced, it's hard to call an upset when there aren't even any nominations.

I wouldn't call Whitaker an upset really, I still have O'Toole ahead of him.

My vote is for Hudson losing, or while it's not up there, Babel stealing Best Picture or something.

Quit pimpin' German movies

I hope The lives of Others takes it. That would somewhat make up for The Sea Inside winning over Downfall, which is clearly the better picture.

The Sea Inside was 183x better than Downfall. Downfall was like a TV-movie with a good performance by that Bruno Ganz guy.

@Ross, that line was hilarious. I mean it, just your delivery.

Anyways, back on topic, I must say the best actor and best director upsets are the most likely (i.e. wouldn't be 'shocking'). Mirren losing would be the biggest shocker. Pans or Volver is winning best import, so that's not even on the table for discussion.

Neither Venus nor Last King made much splash with the exception of the performance buzz. My guess is Leo comes out of nowhere to take actor. Scorsese is Scorsese. Its never a true shocker when he gets a nom and not a win, though its up in the air who, exactly, would take bd above him.

I sincerly hope the "shocker" is Mirren not winning. I really, really do.

*bump*

Time for this to reappear. Currently all of these seem very unlikely. Even Whitaker seems unstoppable right now.

I still think Jennifer Hudson could lose best supp actress this year. There are always surprises in the supp categories. The acting guilds do not make up the entire academy. I think the two lead actors are locks, but supp could be surprises this year.

Actually, you sorta have to edit one of the possibilities, as Volver didn't even get nominated for Best Foreign Film.

It's still Whitaker.

The only ones I can see are Whitaker and Pan's Labyrinth. Foreign films could be unpredictable as the category has shown before (e.g. Amelie losing to No Man's Land).

The weakest link is definitely Jennifer Hudson but I'd REALLY welcome a surprise in the Best Actor category.

The four acting categories are pretty much locked up - but if there is a surprise it could be Eddie Murphy not winning.

With Scorcese's track record with the Academy - I dare say Director isnt a lock either.

If Innaritu takes DGA tomorrow I'm slapping someone.

Actor is still not locked, and I may regret this, but I think an upset is possible in any of the big categories save Actress and Director.

We have a winner -- that's your "most possible huge upset at the Oscars this year" right there!

Volver shoulda won Best Foreign Film, let alone not be nominated - it was a great movie.

About as much chance of that happening as M. Night Shylaman winning via write-in for The Lady in the Water.

I don't think I can edit polls : )