Here's a few possibilities to start discussion, post your list if you have one.

Adapted:
Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Children
Letters from Iwo Jima

Original:
Little Miss Sunshine
United 93
The Queen
Brick

What about Rocky Balboa?

Not sure about adapted yet, but I would think Little Miss Sunshine and The Queen are frontrunners for Best Original so far.

I think Notes on a Scandal is a contender for Adapted.


Yeah, I absolutely have no clue as to who the frontrunner is for Adapted.

I'd like to see Little Children get a nod. Of course I haven't seen the film yet, but I hear its great.

I'm assuming Dreamgirls has a fairly good chance at getting a nod, as well as The Departed.

Why, The Departed, of course.

Yeah. Don't forget about that.

Children of Men might also be up for adapted.

Adapted:
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal
Children of Men

alt: The Devil Wears Prada



Original:
Little Miss Sunshine
Volver
Letters from Iwo Jima
The Queen
Babel

alt: Pan's Labyrinth

I haven't heard any buzz on Pan's Labryrinth as far as its screenplay goes. The fact that it is a foreign film won't help its chances either so I'd say that is a real long shot.

If the buzz goes anywhere, The Painted Veil should be a contender for adapted.

I know... but just look at the scores


If it does make in, it should replace Volver, and I don't see that one failing to get a nom here, so I agree.


The race looks between those 5 plus Labyrinth and Borat (Brick = Kiss Kiss Bang Bang imo). I don't see both Labyrinth and Borat getting in either, so I'm picking the former for now as an alternate. It makes sense somehow


And yes, I guess I forgot The Painted Veil, Christian...

Borat a contender for best screenplay? Really? I don't think so. Not at all. Yeah, some parts were semi-scripted, but the film is really a screenplay-less film, so I don't think that it even has a chance at a nod even remotely. I hope not anyway. I loved the film and all...but no.

Mike Leigh films also don't have "traditional screenplays." The dialogue in his films are mostly improvised by the actors with his guidance, through his story outline and rehearsals. Then again, it's Mike Leigh.. he's had a good track record for getting a screenplay nomination in recent times (Secret and Lies, Topsy Turvy, Vera Drake).

They're campaigning Borat for a screenplay award and is well-received so yes, it is at least in contention for a nomination (they'll have to recognize it somehow whether here or Best Actor). It's a dark horse though. I think it has a bigger chance at a WGA nom.

I also think Sacha has a much bigger shot. But don't discard the screenplay yet.

Interesting that you would put U93 in the "original" screenplay category -- but upon reflection, I do think that is an accurate placement. (Though I'm sure some will argue that it was "adapted" from reality...)

Under the rules of the Academy, U93 would be considered an original screenplay unless it's directly based off of an existing film, book, TV show, whatever.

Letters to Iwo Jima is based off of the book Picture Letters from Commander in Chief according to IMDB. Why is this considered an original screenplay?

From Wikipedia:



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Letters_from_Iwo_Jima

Because I didn't do research to make this thread, I just slapped it together and listed some as possibilities to help discussion. I'll change the original post.

I was wondering if Letters from Iwo Jima had an original book that it was adapted from.

Yeah, but Sasha Stone also has it as Original, so it's not only you

Brick is definitley not getting a nomination.

Original should be a tight competition between The Queen, LMS, Babel, and I guess Letters judging from the posts above. I'm guessing The Queen will follow Good Night's path by not taking it, after that it depends if Letters is powerful enough, or if it is fading as a 4th-5th nominee like xiayun is notioning too.