Yes, Hudson has been supposibly leading the way so far, but I believe Blanchett is on the verge of turning this ship around!

First of all, she's got Best Picture Babel on her side, giving her push.

Second of all, her opponent is Jennifer Hudson, potentially one of the most bizarre Oscar holders in history, a 7th place Idol contestant who has never acted before. Her performance may be good, great, but she hasn't been a part of the acting community, she is just a bit of an out there choice.

Not to mention Dreamgirls is far from the behemoth it was a few weeks ago. 76% at RT and pulling goose-eggs on the precursors is dropping its stock a bit.

Also it's sad, but true, Blanchett is a beautiful woman, a star... Hudson is not. Like baba has pointed out, Dreamgirls hasn't even been marketing her as a selling point, despite the film being centered around her.

With the tide turning as more and more critics choices come out, I believe George Clooney's guarantee will come true. Cate the Great is coming on too strong, and I think a 2nd Oscar would solidify her with Winslet as one of the top actresses of today.

Nope. They'll file Streep under supporting actress, and Streep will take it before Blanchette does if Hudson is out of the race. Though I do agree with you, Hudson isn't getting it. Not because of looks, as you say, but yes because she hasn't really been part of the community, and the community is who casts the votes in this case (not journalists, not critics). They're going to vote for someone they already know and are empathetic with. Streep's near 25 year dry streak on wins despite massive amounts of noms (and the amount of people in the industry she has worked with) almost gaurantees she's prime for winning.

Streep will be under Best Actress, not Supporting. So, that's not happening.

Peace,
Mike.

I think Streep is going lead, honestly.

Emily Blunt should win.

For which film, Babel? Because she's not going to win for Notes on a Scandal, although she's likely to be nominated for that film. Are you suggesting a double (triple) nomination?

Notes on a Scandal seems to be the film she's most buzzed for. Has already won a number of precursors, Toronto, Florida, etc.

I think you need clarify in the opening post that this is for her performance in Notes on a Scandal (although it should be clear, because that's the only one she is getting awards for). Babel and The Good German help her case to win for Scandal, I agree. All 3 of her performances have gotten kudos from somewhere (reviews and whatnot).

Blanchett for Notes on a Scandal is right behind Hudson in terms of awards won so far. So, Blanchett could very well win. I don't understand Alex's immediately writing her off.

Peace,
Mike.

She can, y'know. Specially if Dreamgirls disappoints in a big way, but even in that case, it should walk away with the supporting actress and nothing else, so... I don't know. It's a possibility, and let's leave it at that.


If they only could move Streep to the supporting race...

Too bad she won just two years ago. Hilary Swank she ain't.

Zeta Jones is far from beautiful. JenHud she ain't.

hudson is a liock wut yall on

If anything because of Blanchett's three different acclaimed roles (Notes, Babel, Good German), she'll get vote splitting and will end up completely empty handed.

Except, you know, she's only going to be nominated for Notes. And yes she will get nominated for sure, the category is so weak and it's basically her and JenHud who have been winning everything and anything... a nom is locked.

Yes, a nom is locked

But she just won in this same category two years ago. Hilary Swank's second win was largely helped by not facing anyone else who really had a shoo-in performance to win, unlike Cate Blanchett vs. Jennifer Hudson.

Yes, a nom is locked

But she just won in this same category two years ago. Hilary Swank's second win was largely helped by not facing anyone else who really had a shoo-in performance to win, unlike Cate Blanchett vs. Jennifer Hudson.

I'd be absolutely shocked if Jennifer Hudson actually won.

I don't know why... I just don't see it happening. I'd really have to see the movie to back that up but if I'm right, then who exactly is Cate Blanchet's competition? Abigail Breslin?

A lot of people believe in the Easter Bunny too. Some people believe if you blow yourself up in a crowded cafe for Allah that you get 72 virgins in heaven.

Hudson is winning Best Supporting Actress. Even if (for some reason) Dreamgirls wasn't nominated.

I always thought it were 16 virgins...hmm.

Not in. I think Hudson about has the Supporting Actress category locked up, and it would be a miracle if she even got nominated in the lead category for The Good German.

It could happen. I'm still not on this Hudson bandwagon, even though she's winning everything. I can't see them giving it to an American Idol contestant.

Count me in the "Blanchett" isn't going to win crowd.

Aussie Power!!!

Go Blanchett!

It doesn't matter. This topic is unnecessary.

At my showing of Dreamgirls, people like actually cheered at the end of the "I'm not going" song, then they cheered at the end of the movie... THEN THEY WAITED THROUGH THE END TITLES TO SEE HER "INTRODUCING" TITLE SO THEY COULD CLAP AGAIN.

Yes, she's winning BSA.

Yeah. After seeing her performance in Dreamgirls I don't think there has been a better performance in a long time. Especially for a debut.