I'm actually mystified that Babel is still hanging on. It ended up negative on COTC, box office was very mediocre, and it was the first film by Paramount Vantage. Like Andaroo said, Paramount is going to be campaigning Dreamgirls and Letters from Iwa Jima way before this.

By the way, long as you're around for a little while Andaroo (good to see ya here), what are your general thoughts on Children of Men at this point? I know you were dying to see it.

I tallied up all of the big films (or ones I cared about) because I know we all like to see how an individual film did, and it's easier this way.

Looks to me like the two films to really hit big and to have already been well solidified into the Oscar race beforehand are The Departed and Dreamgirls. They cleaned up and have both been top contenders for a while now. They both received 7 nominations each and both nabbed Best Picture and Best Director, as well as 2 acting nominations. Strong everywhere. They're both probably the biggest locks we've got, I would think.

Babel and Little Miss Sunshine also proved strong in these awards with 7 nominations each as well. Both films nabbed nominations for Best Picture, Best Writer and Best Acting Ensemble (as well as individual acting awards for both). So both cleaned up well. Babel also did well in the music area (awards for Composer and Soundtrack).

The Queen (4 noms) and Letters from Iwo Jima (3 noms) both got Best Picture and Best Director, and secured their status as frontrunners. United 93 also got Best Picture and Best Director but remains questionable with no support elsewhere.

Little Children did fairly well for once, getting Best Picture, Best Writer and Best Actress (Kate Winslet). Even Blood Diamond and Notes on a Scandal held their own with 3 noms each.

TALLIES:

The Departed (7)
Best Picture
Best Director - Martin Scorcese
Best Actor - Leonardo DiCaprio
Best Supporting Actor - Jack Nicholson
Best Acting Ensemble
Best Writer - William Monahan
Best Composer - Howard Shore

Dreamgirls (7)
Best Picture
Best Director - Bill Condon
Best Supporting Actor - Eddie Murphy
Best Supporting Actress - Jennifer Hudson
Best Acting Ensemble
Best Soundtrack
Best Song - "Listen" by Beyonce

Babel (7)
Best Picture
Best Supporting Actress -Adriana Barraza
Best Supporting Actress - Rinko Kikuchi
Best Acting Ensemble
Best Writer - Guillerma Arriaga
Best Soundtrack
Best Composer - Gustavo Santaolalla

Little Miss Sunshine (7)
Best Picture
Best Supporting Actor - Alan Arkin
Best Acting Ensemble
Best Writer - Michael Arndt
Best Young Actor - Paul Dano
Best Young Actress - Abigail Breslin
Best Comedy Movie

The Queen (4)
Best Picture
Best Director - Stephen Frears
Best Actress - Helen Mirren
Best Writer - Peter Morgan

Little Children (3)
Best Picture
Best Actress - Kate Winslet
Best Writer - Todd Field and Tom Perrotta

Letters from Iwo Jima (3)
Best Picture
Best Director - Clint Eastwood
Best Foreign Language Film

Blood Diamond (3)
Best Picture
Best Actor - Leonardo DiCaprio
Best Supporting Actor - Djimon Hounsou

Notes on a Scandal
Best Picture
Best Actress - Judi Dench
Best Supporting Actress - Clate Blanchett

United 93 (2)
Best Picture
Best Director - Paul Greengrass

Half Nelson (2)
Best Actor - Ryan Gosling
Best Young Actress - Shareeka Epps

The Devil Wears Prada (2)
Best Actress - Meryl Streep
Best Comedy Movie

Hi MovieDude.

I'm still pretty keen to see Children of Men. This is pure speculation but I think Universal really fucked up its release date. I mean, I want to see the damn thing and have only seen the trailer in theaters once and don't even know it's real release date (Christmas?). It should have been released around the same time as the UK release but it seems like Universal was more behind The Good Shepherd, which we all know is now dead.

Universal's best shot is now United 93 which is panning out for them, but they won't even bother switching gears now. Universal has had a good string of nominated pictures over the last few years...

2003 - Seabiscuit
2004 - Ray
2005 - Munich

They are definitely a studio that can get a film nominated in a pinch, all of those films could be considered a "5th nominee", which I would actually put as a plus for United 93 in this case.

Heh, good comparison, and I agree. Babel's been doing well so far, but it's, in a way, still flying too far under the radar, and will continue to do so.

It obviously has support -- enough to lift it into all these top 10 lists. But if you really look at it, it's kind of like... hm, well, what else is there to nominate?

I understand why everyone is convinced those are the four, but something tells me that Dreamgirls is no lock. I'm slowly getting warmed to the idea that The Queen will make it though. My front five goes like this:

1. The Departed
2. Letters from Iwojima
3. The Queen
4. United 93
5. Little Miss Sunshine

Really fucked up is an understatement. From the moment it got pushed back from late September to Christmas despite opening EVERYWHERE else, it was clear that Universal was not thinking things through. Like notfabio said, if Sony had released it then and it had got the stunning reviews it seems like it'll be getting they could've gotten a 20 million opening out of it. Say it has good legs to 70-75 million and this would be Universal's flagship and likely to get a BP nom. These last, last minute releases barely ever work... Million Dollar Baby aside how often do films open in limited the last weekend or two of the year and get a nomination?

The reason why I still consider Babel in this (aside from the fact that it's been in everything so far in terms of lists/awards which is impressive itself) is that United 93 is not a sure bet and I still somehow doubt Little Miss Sunshine ability to strike with the Oscars, and there needs to be another film to fill out the 5th slot at the Oscars (assuming that Dreamgirls, The Departed, Iwo Jima and The Queen have the other 4 slots).

That which is against United 93 is obvious, but I also still doubt Little Miss Sunshine because it really, really does not feel like a an Oscar Best Picture nominee to me. I guess I'm going totally with my gut here. It feels like Adaptation, and other similar films. I'm not sure what else to say. Guilds will clarify things, but even then, DGA is traditionally the best indicator of the Oscar Best Picture line-up, and I actually don't see Little Miss Sunshine getting a DGA nomination....

Anyways, it's not that Sunshine is one of the films I don't want to make it (there's actually a different film which I'm secretly hoping doesn't make it, and I'll never tell), it's just my honest thought on it. I'll be happy if LMS is one of the nominees.

Peace,
Mike.

I hereby rename Babel the Little Film That Won't Die. It has NOTHING going for it. Crash had Ebert, Oprah and many more Hollywood bigshots praising the hell out it. Babel has. . .?

Supporting Actor gets increasingly crowded. Pitt is beginning to look dead, especially with Barraza and Kicoochi making it into the same category while he couldn't get in alone.

Speaking of S. Actress, I'm getting worried about Breslin. She has yet to get any mentions from anyone except BFCA, even in Breakthrough Actress awards. Not to mention the Globes put her in Lead, therefore making things worse for her.

Oh, and I love how two docus made it into Song. Too bad Dixie Chicks didn't make the "shortlist" of 60 sings. Still, it's looking likely that, with Melissa Etheridge possibly performing, Ellen hosting and Judi Dench getting in for Notes, Oscar night is going to be Revenge of the Lesbians.

They better nominate Jodie Foster for Inside Man then.

Decent noms. Good to see formidable support for DiCaprio.

Babel is dead, simply dead. Nothing will save it. No BP nom for it. U93 and LMS not only have vastly superior reviews, they both also have far better box-office.

The BP race is really down to Dreamgirls and The Departed, but Scorsese has BD locked.

You know, of all the things that sucked about Flags of Our Fathers....Adam Beach and everything about his character was by far the suckiest.

I'm thrilled to see The Departed with seven noms and Leo with two lead actor noms.I'm also happy to see Blood Diamond in the top ten.

Don't feel bad for Brad Pitt, though he may not get a BSA nom. Pitt's a producer on The Departed so he'll get his nominations in the BP category.

Letters, Queen, Departed, Dreamgirls will be nominated for both picture and director.. Sunshine will take no.5 spot of Picture and United 93 for director..

That's what I think

Well Munich was a last minute semi-limited event last year (off the top of my head wasn't it like a few hundred theaters?) that still managed to get a Best Picture.

A Beautiful Mind was released Dec 21 2001 in 11 theaters and didn't go 600+ til after the turn of the year.

Chicago opened on Dec 27 with 77 theaters.

I mean... it does happen regularly.

I'm sure if something was there for Children of Men was being pushed as more of an event film rather than a sci-fi kind of horror story thriller then it might (with the right reviews) have been pushable. So I guess saying they screwed up the release isn't as accurate as saying (IMO) that they screwed up the awareness for the film and it should have done MUCH better in early November or maybe at least had the opportunity to be built up earlier.

There's really no reason to handle the film like this, Cuarón is coming off a movie which grossed almost 800 million dollars.

All this Children of Men crappy advertising news is horribly depressing. Can't my naive brain simply believe the "best" movie will always win out?

No, it doesn't work like that.

Part of what went wrong last year is that I got too invested in loving/hating the movies.

Now that I don't care as much anymore, it is like playing fantasy football on a web site. Complete and utter rubbish.

you the man Snrub.

I couldn't find any monthly data before 2000, but since 2000, every winner of Best Picture has won its respective month. I expect it to hold true again, so that eliminates Babel, The Queen, The Departed, and Dreamgirls, and leaves us Little Miss Sunshine, Letters from Iwo Jima, and United 93. Since LMS didn't get a nomination at BD, I think it will be between United 93 and Letters. I'm going with U93.

United 93 is BFCA's April Film of the month, Letters December, and Little Miss Sunshine July. Babel and The Queen lost September Film of the Month to Little Children, Dreamgirls to Letters, and The Departed to Flags of Our Fathers.

Previous winners:
2005 - Brokeback Mountain (December Film of the Month)
2004 - Sideways (October)
2003 - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (December)
2002 - Chicago (December)
2001 - A Beautiful Mind (December)
2000 - Gladiator (May)

I don't see them giving up their precursor powers that they love to brag about, so they'll probably award one of the five contenders.

A reply at OW reminded me that they already deviate from one rule: if the monthly winner didn't get in the final Top 10 list, no other film from that month would; but this year The Departed is in from October, while the month's winner Flags of Our Fathers isn't. So The Departed is basically the representative for the month of October, and it winning will fit into the existing trend.

Yeah, I'm going with The Departed now.

So, the win is either going to United 93, Little Miss Sunshine, Letters from Iwo Jima, or The Departed.

Cool. I'll be happy with 3 of those 4 winning. Iwo Jima is the only one I wouldn't want to see win.

Peace,
Mike.