Films with awful WOM drop fast - Even in December. Of course I don't know whether the film will have awful WOM or not, but all the signs are there. This is the ONLY profilic film this december that hasn't had even one screening yet.

Gee, I wonder why?

I remember people having major doubts about the first LOTR months before it opened, and I'd say it fared quite well. Obviously this won't be another LOTR, but the film doesn't look that awful. Actually, if you like dragons and mystical themes, it looks pretty good. We'll have to see if the plotline has much substance as the CGI.

Ouch those new shots look terrible.

No way. FotR had at least two full-length trailers, both of which were widely praised. Yes, the fans had doubts, but by a long shot, the fans were hardest to please. The trailers pulled in the non-fans. Looks like Eragon will be the opposite.

So you are not impressed with RS tracking holding steady at $28M? Don't know what it's worth to you, but it's in the Top 10 on the IMDM movie meter, so there's definitely interest in it. At this point, I can't see its OW being damaged by a weak trailer.

1. FOTR had two trailers out which were greatly received. Eragon has had poor trailers.

2. 6 months before release, 25 minutes of FOTR were shown to spectacular reactions. So far two 1-minute clips have been shown of Eragon on TV, to poor reception.

3. The first preview screenings and reviews for FOTR were out 3-4 weeks before the release. Eragon hasn't been shown to anyone yet, and it's one week until the opening.

4. FOTR was based on one of the most beloved and succesful books of all time. Eragons is based on a book which has wold roughly 3 million and has had a decidedly mixed reception.

5. FOTR was made a by a director with a long, succesful career, including Heavenly Creatures which had a great critical reception back in the day. Eragon is directed by a 45-year old visul effects supervisor, who has never before directed anything. Jackson wasn't a proven blockbuster director, but he had proven to be a GOOD director.

6. A few weeks before the release of FOTR several scenes were released on internet. They all had excellent directing, writing and acting. On the other hand directing, writing and acting in Eragon seems awful, as proven by trailers and scenes released from the movie.

...I fail to see how these two films are alike.

Now THAT was a smackdown! Shutting up now.

Just in case if someone wants to see scenes from the film, quite a few have popped out during the last few days. Here they are:

http://media.shurtugal.com/movieviewer. ... e=yah&id=1

http://media.shurtugal.com/movieviewer. ... e=yah&id=2

http://video.msn.com/v/us/fv/fv.htm??f= ... =243993&fg

http://video.msn.com/v/us/v.htm??f=msnm ... 243993&fg&

http://media.shurtugal.com/movieviewer. ... 5/ign1.WMV

http://media.shurtugal.com/movieviewer. ... 5/ign2.WMV

http://media.shurtugal.com/movieviewer.php?type=sf&id=1

http://media.shurtugal.com/movieviewer.php?type=sf&id=2

(There were two more on AOL, but the links seemed to be dead)

Saying that the film looks cheesy and dumb as hell would be an understatement. I will check it out on DVD, thought. I might like it on a so-bad-it's-good level.

Ugh. This really is looking closer to a Dungeons And Dragons rather than a Narnia.

14/49.

STN had the biggest drop ever for a movie to open above 4m.

Lemony Snicket had a drop of 58%, yet a multiplier of nearly 4.

That's because it had LOTR five days after it opened. Yet it still dropped like a rock afterwards. Like I said, extreme extreme example. And I could easily see this getting a worse multiplier then A Series of Unfortunate Events, that had a similar following to a book for young adults, but far better reviews and somewhat better WOM then what I'm expecting.

For the record, I'll be honest when I say that I think it could open to over 25 million. I'd just really love to have this bomb, considering I was saying under 80 million back when it seemed like virtually else was in the "100 million is a lock, I'm predicting 150 + million" camp.

From notfabio:

"FWIW, AMC Downtown Disney's WOM screening for ERAGN for Tuesday "sold out" in less than a day."

Like it or not, I really doubt that Eragon is going to crash and burn.

Do you have a link for that? I'd really like to...uhm...show some people this.

Here is his original post on HSX. It also includes the e-mail invitation to the screening.

http://talk.hsx.com/films/post.htm?1208101110.notfabio

Thanks.

100 is a lock and Im in the 150 million camp

Two reviews, and both them are... POSITIVE??????????

http://www.urbancinefile.com.au/home/vi ... &s=Reviews

The commercials are now touting this as "the biggest fim even of the year!"

Sure, and Eragon is going to beat Pirates 2.

Those two reviews are quite glowing. It'll be interesting to see what the major critics
have to say.

Those good reviews almost seem like plants. Yeah, I'm curious about this too. I really, reallly have no idea whether or not this or PoH is going to win this weekend.

They are curiously slight reviews, but the Urban Cinefile folks are Rottentomatoes regulars.

On the other hand, the famed british TV movie critic Jonathan Ross apparently gave Eragon a very negative review.

We'll see who it goes... At least they are showing the film to critics - I even doubted that.

Maketing has been good during the last days, plus it's a fantasy movie. As Magnus said, the only fantasy movie we have this year.
100M looks to be a lock, though it also seems its coeiling isn't that high.

32/130 I'd say. A bit conservative but not pessimistic.

I know I'm going out on a limb here...but there is absolutely no way in hell this gets to 100 million. Strong opening before it stops dead in a week...

Here's is Jonathan Rross' review. Remember that that he is a TV reviewer, so this is just a written down form of his verbal review. Ross is a bit of a "geek" critic, likes fantasy and tends to be easy on movies. This is one of the most negative reviews he's give in a looooong time:

- - -

From an opening explanatory voice over that’s so confusing and stuffed with ridiculous names it could almost be a parody, everything about Eragon is just wrong. It really is a badly undercooked, poorly executed, 3rd rate Lord of the Rings, which will be a huge let down for lovers of fantasy movies while confirming the worst prejudices of anyone who runs a mile and the mention of a sorcerer or a sword or a dragon.

Predictable, badly cast, and inconsistent to the point where it stops making sense, it’s impossible to get to know any of the characters or care what happens to them.

That even applies to the central character, though admittedly I was distracted and puzzled by the frequent references to him being just a boy when he looks at least 18 and is rather more strapping than most grown men, certainly the ones who work on this show anyway.

It came as no surprise to me that the films director has a background in visual effects because in that respect the movie is adequate, but it still fails miserably as an engaging story line and there’s no chance for actors such as Robert Carlyle and John Malkovich to do what they were paid for and inject a bit of quality into a shoddy script.

When I tell you that Eragon opens on Friday I don’t do so lightly. My son will be desperate to see it but I already know that he will be disappointed when he does and I’m really depressed at the thought of seeing it again.