Since we all like predicting the total box office of films in advance, I thought it would be good to have a thread where we can all gloat about the films we have predicted accurately and how far in advance we did so. (Not predictions after opening day/weekend). I know some of you are great BO predicters and will come up with a huge list of good predictions.

But to keep us all grounded - I think we should also list our "Hall of Shame" - the films we were waaayyy off on. Ive got plenty of those

Ok -I'll start....

My Best Predictions:

Ice Age 2 - predicted $190m
Superman Returns predicted $190m (not far off)
Revenge of the Sith - predicted $370-$380m a long time before its release
The Santa Clause 3 - predicted $80-$90m (which looks likely)
Cars - $240m
The Notebook - predicted $75m
Bad Boys II - predicted $140m

My Hall of Shame:

Troy - predicted $310m
A.I - predicted $230m
Godzilla - predicted $280m
Pirates of the Carribean : COTBP I predicted $90m
Pirates of the Carribean : DMC I didnt learn and predicted $270-$300m
Oceans 12 - $220m
Click - $200m

Offcourse there are many more in both categories but thats all i can think of for now. Over to you.

My Best predictions:

MI3- 130 million total
Day After Tommorrow -185 prediction
King Kong at 190 million when everyone else was predicting over 250 million
Talledegah Nights 150 million
Spongebob at 75 million
Troy at 140 million far below other predictions
Oceans 12 at 110 million
T3 doing below 200 million
The Incredibles falling around 250 million
Kingdom of Heaven being one of the biggest flops during the summer during early january
Hero opening close to 20 million in 1500 theaters
WOTW at around 240 million
The Departed opening higher than TCM a month and a half before their opening

Hall of Shame:
Fantastic Four 85 million
Batman Begins 300 million
Chronicles of Riddick 140 million!
The Hulk over 300 million
Mr & Mrs Smith at 75 million
Borat opening below 10 million in 800 theaters
United 93 opening to over 20 million
WTC grossing over 150 million
Doom opening over 30 million

I do take alot of risks. Some have paid off like Kong, DAT, TN,O12 and MI3. Some are quite embarassing like COR, Borat, United 93 and Fantastic Four. I'll still stick with risks like Eragon,Transformers and Simpsons

My #1 prediction ever...

Wedding Crashers Over $200,000,000

God, I don't even remember what I predicted for anything.

I said The Devil Wears Prada would open to over $20M...does that count?

Dead man's Chest I called for 419...I gotta think about the rest for a little...

And most of us should know about the Nativity Story already...If you don't, then God bless you.

From what I can remember...

Best:
- Fantastic Four - $56m/$155m (nailed it!)
- The Incredibles - $70m/$270m (damn close, most were over $300m+)
- The Day After Tomorrow - $85m (4-day, nailed the opening exactly, wayyy off on total, but I was a n00b)
- Batman Begins - $210m total (predicted that in April '05, don't know how high my final prediction was, though...)

Hall of Shame (too many):
- Mission: Impossible III - $75m+ opening (no comment)
- XXX: State of the Union - $45m/$125m (no comment)
- Stealth - $35m/$105m (no comment)
- Date Movie - $30m+ (4-day)
- The Ring Two - $60m+ opening (no comment)
- Doom - $30m+ opening
- Get Rich or Die Tryin' - $100m+ total (before theater count annoucement, of course)

There's sooooo many I'm forgetting.

I predicted like $34 million opening weekend for The Ring 2. And that's it.

Predicting Walk the Line would gross less than the 50 Cent movie

Best predictions:
Finding nemo: 320mill
Ice age 2: 190mill
Hulk: 125mill
The matrix revolutions: 130mill
Fantastic 4: 150mill


Worst:
Superman Returns: 390mill
Chicken Little: 230mill
A.I: 220mill
Munich: 150mill
Cars: 190mill

All made in March


Over the hedge 159
The Break-Up 119
X-men 3 225 (sort of)
Click 141


Worst
SR 301 (though I lowered it later)
DVC 289

Both very big accomplishments

best
-ff-60/155
-click-40/135
-over hedge-40/150
-da vinci-70/210
-x3-95/235

worst-it might be long
-get rich or die trying-35/55/145
-narnia-47/165 (what was i THINKING????)
-kong-65/100/280
-batman begins-65/100/300

am i forgeting any?

somewhat nailed:

Potter 4
Narnia
Sith - in opening atleast
X-3 - in openign wknd
Meet the Fockers
The Passion of the Christ - nailed in opening wknd

perhaps others........

busts:

Pirates 2
Spidey 2
Fantastic Four
Kong
Batman Begins
Happy Feet
Borat
the Spongbob Movie
Lemony Snickets a Series of Unfortunate Events
Sin City
The Aviator
Walk the Line
Team America World Police
Talladega Nights
MI3
Serenity
The Da Vinci Code
The Incredibles

and many more......

I nailed the holiday blockbusters last year. My preds.:

Potter: 100/280
Narnia: 65/290
Kong: 55/210

And earlier this year, I was one of probably the five highest predictions for Pirates opening weekend, (I can't exactlyrecall the number, but I predicted 120+ for sure, I think around 128) and had maintained such a ludicrous prediction since at least January of 05. Of course, I also predicted a final total of 505, so it's not like nailed the whole run. Just it's first three days.

As for my misses: anything that wasn't on my hits list.

havent nailed anything yet

Superman Returns 70.4/250m

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Mans Chest - 137.1/553.8m (did good on the opening)

Snakes on A Plane - 45/100m

Miami Vice - 42.12/150m

In 2003, I predicted ROTK's total within an accuracy of $300,000 and was within $5 million of it's openings both 3 and 5-day.

I also projected Nemo's total in June 2003 within an extremely close range (projected it would cross $339 million, but not TTT...excellent work there).

I've gotten rusty since.

I can't remember all my predictions. But I do remember one!

http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5907&start=0

Sahara prediction: $18m/$69m

Sahara actual: $18,068,372/$68,671,925

I was a little low on the opening, and a little high on the total, but I was pretty proud of myself at the time.

In the same thread, however, I claim Charlie and the Chocolate Factory will break $300m at the same time as reasserting my opinion that Revenge of the Sith wouldn't break $300m. So not everyone's perfect.

http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopi ... 202#572202
http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopi ... 166#471166

That's a prediction from one (stupid) person, versus my prediction, which had just about half of the predictors predicting at least $50m opening weekend. KTHX.

been ovah a year since den!

I was closest predictor opening weekend on Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, Chronicles of Narnia, and Ice Age 2. For the first 2 I was within .1 to the dot, Harry Potter grossed 102.7 and I predicted 102.6, Narnia 65.6 and I predicted 65.4.

Worst: I once said Wonder Woman would gross over 500 million dollars.

I'm probably most proud of going against Superman Returns early on (back when people were guessing 300-400M in some places) and guessing to within a few million of the actual domestic.

My entire strategy is to bet against the internet. If I sense overconfidence/overpimping of a film online (and don't hear similar buzz in the real world) I know that everyone's estimates are going to be crazy. I just go much, much lower.